It has been interesting - the gang on NRL360 this week have taken a deeper than usual dive into the Eels and have come up with a few things we've all been saying. JA on the bench is obviously one and there's another thread dealing with that.
But, they've also been saying that, whilst in their view BA is a quality coach - a potential premiership winning coach - his record of 2 from 9 finals victories is below par and unsustainable and should the Eels lose on Friday night, it will mark his failure to reach Week 3 throughout his tenure.
The consensus on the panel was that whilst overall we have had success as a club, we have not won a comp and "that's what the fans want". The panel concluded that a "circuit breaker" would be required should we lose this Friday and what it may look like.
The consensus was also that it might be that BA needs to 'look at his squad' to decide whether we have the right cattle to win a comp.
Now, this is where I have some difficulty.
There's a few on this forum - Wiz in particular - who are on record stating that the likes of Moses and Gutho, whilst solid, quality footy players, don't have the game breaking ability of a Teddy or Munster to take us to that next level. That may be true, but, we had a genuine game breaker once upon a time and he got us very close to the big prize but not all the way. He was also a prima donna who arguably held back the rest of the team. In fact, the best football I've ever seen us play - or any team play - for an entire season came in 2001 when we had a workmanlike spine of Hodgson, Buettner, Taylor and Drew. Compare that to the solid if not spectacular spine of the current Cowboys team in Drinkwater, Dearden, Townsend and Robson.
So, let's say (heaven forbid) we need that circuit breaker come Saturday morning.
Do we decide that (the out of contract for 2024) Moses and Brown are not the answer? The way I see it is, the best halfback in the competition is Nathan Cleary. Mitch Moses is probably second or third on that list. So, if we decide to part ways with Moses, the only upgrade I see is if we replace him with Cleary (which won't happen).
What about Dylan Brown? When it comes to the 5/8th position, Munster is first, daylight second, and probably Luai and Burton next in line. I'd put Brown just below that line along with Dearden and Nicho Hynes. I like Burton. You can build a team around Burton - but the Dogs have already beaten us to that punch and as for Munster? Well, we could certainly afford him if we go all out and sacrifice both Moses and Brown, but, if we take that approach who's going to play halfback? I think we all know the answer to that if BA remains coach - and it is an unpalatable one. As for Dylan, he's a sensational defender and starting to really develop his attacking game. He is not an organiser (nor is Munster) but at 21, I think he has the most upside of them all (and probably will be the most difficult to retain).
Gutho is a bit more interesting. I seriously rate the guy! He works his butt off, is always there in support, is reliable at the back, makes try saving tackles for fun and scores plenty of tries himself. That said, he is not really a game breaker nor is he 'explosive'. The only players who I would be prepared to trade him for are Teddy, Latrell, Turbo (if he could stay fit) or possibly Val Holmes (although he's playing better at centre than he did when playing FB). Also, Gutho's attempts to hold the club to ransom at contract time probably cost us Papali'i and as Club Captain, that didn't sit well with me (as it may well not have amongst the playing staff either).
As for our forwards, we have two of the best props in the comp who I wouldn't trade for anybody and two fine second rowers in Matto and Lane. Our pack is not the problem and if we get a solid year or two out of Josh Hodgson, we may well be an even better side next year.
So, if we can't significantly upgrade our playing list, do we fight hard to keep Moses and Brown or offer them what they are worth (in my view, Moses - $1m to $1.1m, Brown - $800k - $900k)? Do we get into a bidding war with teams like the Dolphins, Tigers or Roosters because we're shit scared of losing them? I think if we did lose them, we would be facing a rebuild but the Cowboys have shown that a rebuild can occur within a season or two if the right ingredients are put in place.
For me, what the "circuit breaker" would look like would be to keep the current coaching staff of BA, Ryan Carr and (next year) Trent Barrett for 2023 but have a serious crack at Todd Payten for 2024. I always liked the sound of Kristian Woolf coming to coach the club but, as Brissy says, success in the ESL does not necessarily translate to success in the NRL. Just ask Justin Holbrook! Payten has proved he can get results. He turned the Warriors into a competitive outfit for the 6 months he coached them and has worked wonders with the Cowboys.
I like BA, and I don't intend to bag the man or his coaching ability - but, if we lose on Friday night, maybe a "circuit breaker" is needed and for mine, I'd try and keep the squad together and move in a different coaching direction.
Love to hear others' thoughts.
Replies
An interesting analysis Bourbon. Agreed that our squad is actually pretty good when you compare to other clubs. Not sure what the solution is to finding a game breaker - they are hard to come by anyway. I think if we lose either Moses or Brown they are going to be very hard to replace. I think they need to be a priority.
When you compare player to player us v raiders there isn't a player in their entire team I would take over ours (thinking long term I would take savage over gutherson). There's nothing wrong with our squad (even when you compare us to any team in the competition). The problem is on field leadership which I can see is improving and the coaching and man management. It will be a deadset catastrophe if the raiders beat us tomorrow night.
I agree Adam
In reality we should win by 13+ with our squad.
I think we are pretty evenly matched up front but on "potential" we should destroy them in the backs
Nice read, Bourbs.
IMO we need more speed and strike from the back. I would be looking for a fullback with genuine speed to burn.
That means moving Gutherson to centre (a highly paid one) maybe playing centre, with less work load he could really be utilised running out of dummy half off quick play the balls which he is very good at.
The other one, is a genuine 14 who is predominantly a number 9, again with speed. to replace Hodgson for genuine spells that up the tempo of our ruck (not one that comes on with 5 mins to go when the game is done and dusted)
I guess my take is the need for speed! At the back and plenty out of dummy half, something we are lacking in our 1 and 9 at present.
That's a good call Bert.
Considering our two quickest players are probably Moses and Brown, we are a slow team across the board.
Re; Gutherson to centre, he would be the one I would be moving on all together, to shake the roster up, but for the coin he is on I don't see any other buyers for him so we have to fit him somewhere in the team and utilise his strengths. Centre is the best spot IMO, if he moved to 6 I think he would try too hard in attack, as he often does at 1 when there is scoreboard pressure he gets long cut out pass and kick happy. I did think he has enough tricks in his bag to be a genuine 6.
I agree here Bert - partially. I think we need speed at full back and centre. Gutho is too slow for centre so he may need to move into the halfs as we'll most likely lose either Brown or Moses....or both.
One other thing on a circuit breaker - I think it needs to be on both sides - coach and players. I don't think we can move forward without exiting BA AND some of the 'star' players.The clean-out needs to be on both sides.
Interesting. Sean Russell would probably be the next fullback in line. Not sure how quick he is as I really haven't seen much of him. Agreed on the 14, especially with an ageing 9.
I like the idea of Gutho to centre as he is fundamentally a great defender. The number of line breaks he stops at the back is now taken for granted. He dose still seem to have a bit of speed though. I couldn't beleive how quick he looked in that break against Manly when he scored. He seemed to find another gear, or the bloke chasing just made him look fast.
Great Blog BM
I don't think it is even remotely possible but if we were looking for the circuit breaker maybe Joseph Sua'ali'i at fullback.
If we were able to keep Dylan and Mitch at the numbers you quoted we would have an older/experienced 7 and 9 with a young 1 and 6 who both already have a decent amount of experience.
We would never have to worry about our attack as we would be coming from all angles back and up front
Will Penisini is great mates with him
Get Will on the case
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