Gus Gould is right when he says defence starts with your attack.
In V’landyball, that’s truer than ever. Average margins are over 20 points and average scoreline is over 50 points in total. The highest in history.
The old saying is defence wins championships. Maybe that's still true. It's hard to know what the game is evolving into. Touch footy?
But it's who wins the momentum and fatigue battle that wins games. Whoever faces the least amount of death zones.
The Panthers have been the best defensive side of the last 5–6 years. Potentially one of the best defensive systems in NRL history.
Three Sets: Three minutes
Their best defensive performance this season was surviving 13 consecutive plays without conceding a try.
3 completed sets. Around 3 minutes of sustained pressure in a Death Zone.
That’s the benchmark.
Anything approaching that has defences vulnerable.
The Eels have also defended multiple consecutive sets without conceding points. The issue is not whether the can. But how often they are forced to do it.
Eels v Melbourne
Against Melbourne, Parramatta endured 22 minutes of Death Zones to just eight of their own.
8 v 22 minutes. 2 v 6 tries. 8-34 loss.
That's still better than round one: 3 v 36 minutes. 1 v 9 tries. 4-52 loss.
That level of defensive exposure is unsustainable for any system. More often than not, it leads to blowouts.
The Lesson of the Panthers
Not even the Panthers can win facing 20 minutes of intense collective momentum against them in a game. Let alone what the Eels face regularly.
Penrith’s only loss this year was when for the first time they almost faced 20 minutes.
13 v 19 minutes. 3 v 5 tries. 16-32 loss to the Dogs.
By comparison, Penrith’s close 18–16 win over Manly featured a near-even momentum battle.
10 v 9 minutes to the Panthers. 3 v 3 tries. A 18-16 win.
That’s why attack, yardage, completions, errors, poor ball-handling, and late-set restarts matter so much.
Yardage
According to NRL.com, Penrith make the most run metres per game. Parramatta are second-last (Broncos worst).
It’s one reason why if Mitchell Moses doesn’t kick for 600 metres or more (Fox Lab), the Eels are generally not in the contest. And in games the kicking yardage fades in the second half, the game usually follows the same course.
The Warriors operate similarly but are humming. Their systems are built around high completions, low errors, strong kick yardage, and territorial pressure layered on top of physicality.
Overworked Forwards and Back Five
Penrith forwards are responsible for only 36.6% of total yardage. Parramatta's 48.8%.
Junior Paulo and Jack Williams in particular are carrying massive loads simply trying to establish momentum. Far more than the Panthers.
Leota and Lindsay Smith have made 1800m at 7.9m/ run.
Junior Paulo and Jack Williams have made around 2200m at around 8.5m/ run.
You wouldn't think so. But maybe we don't always appreciate hard work when you're losing.
What’s interesting is that Parramatta’s halves and forwards actually average slightly more metres per carry than Penrith’s equivalent.
But that also reveals the structural problem.
Essentially, the Panthers get punch from their back five. No surprises there.
Penrith’s back five generate: 8,576m from 932 carries. 9.2m/ run (Fox Lab Reports)
Parra’s back five generate: 6,591m from 804 carries. 8.2m/ run.
That gap becomes enormous over the course of a match and a season.
We need more punch from the ruck
Somewhere.
Whether that is forward-heavy recruitment of power players, more punch from dummy half or more from the back five like the Panthers. Or ideally, all.
The Eels need more “urgent athletes” as Coryn often calls them: players capable of generating immediate ruck pressure and momentum. Players who create urgency, chaos, and mayhen to create space and momentum.
Taylan Da Silva is a good example we need to use more out of dummy half and targetting the ditch behind the ruck and both A & B defenders better with good support play and lines. We aren't doing much of that.
Against Melbourne in the first half he had 0 runs for 0 metres. Against the Cowboys he ran for almost 80 metres, made two linebreaks, and scored a try in the opening half.
Against the Storm we spread it to Moses mostly and Volkman looking to exploit the Storm's vulnerable edge defence this year. It was of little practical purpose other than the first try when we had a 3-minute death zone.
It's probably no co-incidence in 2001, another high scoring year, the Eels had a lot of dummy half punch. The PJ Marsh-Drew one-two punch. Whether we see more threat with the ball from Ryley Smith when he returns from injury is also a question.
It might also be the game plan to have the ball in Moses' hand as quickly as possible ala 2022.
The issue is if you aren't getting ruck momentum, spreading it wide is less effective on set defences.
It's an issue the Dogs have had before their break out win against the Storm this week.
Sure, some teams might have freaks like Latrell Mitchell or Reece Walsh, but if you don't?
It also erodes confidence when you're up against 13 in the line in the 20m zone, and unable to score.
Worst still, when you're playing catch up footy, and hot potato coast-to-coast, the likelihood of an error increases. Invites momentum swings and death.
That's also where elite systems matter so much.
Elite Systems
The Panthers’ elite systems is the foundation of winning momentum by a thousand cuts; suffocation. Patience. Waiting for mistakes. To strike.
Their punch from the ruck, kick chase, support play, ruck and game management are elite. It's also small things like avoiding quick belly play the balls and gang tackles to jack up players and push them back to slow the ruck and help the defensive line reset.
Man-for-man, Penrith average roughly 300mm more per carry overall than the Eels.
But when that involves nearly 2,000 carries, it becomes overwhelming.
It's not just striking first and beating the opposition to the death zone punch.
We also need more consistent systems: a big thing Ryles is looking to achieve. Or failure awaits.
Stats taken from Fox Lab Reports.
Individual yardage
| R1-12 (11 games) | |||
| Penrith | |||
| Back Five | Runs | Metres | m/ run |
| Dylan Edwards | 210 | 2011 | 9.58 |
| Thomas Jenkins | 197 | 1822 | 9.25 |
| Brian To'o | 203 | 1775 | 8.74 |
| Paul Alamoti | 150 | 1376 | 9.17 |
| Izack Tago | 33 | 333 | 10.09 |
| Casey McLean | 139 | 1259 | 9.06 |
| 53.3% | 932 | 8576 | 9.20 |
| Halves | |||
| Blaize Talagi | 93 | 780 | 8.39 |
| Nathan Cleary | 99 | 765 | 7.73 |
| Jack Cogger | 13 | 77 | 5.92 |
| 10.1% | 205 | 1622 | 7.91 |
| Forwards | |||
| Isaah Yeo | 136 | 1185 | 8.71 |
| Isaiah Papali'i | 159 | 1148 | 7.22 |
| Moses Leota | 127 | 1022 | 8.05 |
| Lindsay Smith | 106 | 823 | 7.76 |
| Luke Garner | 95 | 759 | 7.99 |
| Bradley Phillips | 91 | 673 | 7.40 |
| Scott Sorensen | 86 | 653 | 7.59 |
| Liam Martin | 42 | 325 | 7.74 |
| FB Lussick | 27 | 199 | 7.37 |
| Liam Henry | 12 | 117 | 9.75 |
| Keanu Going | 14 | 102 | 7.29 |
| Mitch Kenny | 11 | 66 | 6.00 |
| 36.6% | 770 | 5887 | 7.65 |
| Overall | 1907 runs | 16085m | 8.43 m/run |
| Eels | |||
| Back Five | Runs | Metres | m / run |
| Josh Addo-Carr | 135 | 1180 | 8.74 |
| Bailey Kelly | 120 | 1023 | 8.53 |
| Sean Russell | 117 | 842 | 7.20 |
| Will Penisini | 98 | 828 | 8.45 |
| Bailey Simonsson | 89 | 703 | 7.90 |
| Joash Papalii | 81 | 648 | 8.00 |
| Isaiah Iongi | 60 | 510 | 8.50 |
| Jordan Samrani | 60 | 482 | 8.03 |
| Araz Nanva | 28 | 205 | 7.32 |
| Apa Twidle | 16 | 170 | 10.63 |
| 46.4% | 804 | 6591 | 8.20 |
| Halves | |||
| Ronald Volkman | 37 | 339 | 9.16 |
| Mitchell Moses | 34 | 275 | 8.09 |
| Pezet | 15 | 70 | 4.67 |
| 4.8% | 86 | 684 | 7.95 |
| Forwards | |||
| Jack Williams | 128 | 1110 | 8.67 |
| Junior Paulo | 132 | 1083 | 8.20 |
| Kitione Kautoga | 100 | 806 | 8.06 |
| Kelma Tuilagi | 96 | 713 | 7.43 |
| Luca Moretti | 60 | 495 | 8.25 |
| Dylan Walker | 70 | 447 | 6.39 |
| Sam Tuivaiti | 53 | 409 | 7.72 |
| Charlie Guymer | 52 | 367 | 7.06 |
| De Belin | 44 | 333 | 7.57 |
| Da Silva | 22 | 315 | 14.32 |
| Pryke | 38 | 259 | 6.82 |
| Matt Doorey | 28 | 214 | 7.64 |
| Toni Mataele | 21 | 191 | 9.10 |
| Ryley Smith | 16 | 106 | 6.63 |
| Hopgood | 12 | 89 | 7.42 |
| 48.8% | 872 runs | 6937m | 7.96 |
| Overall | 1762 runs | 14212m |
8.07 m/run |
Replies
I honestly hope we have an analytics division within the club to maximise dollar vs performance opportunities that's an area we can make gains.Maybe devise an RAS (relative athletic score)type system like in the nfl and then have a look at character traits via and interview type of system to maximise the mentioned.
I feel we are behind the game here,another big off season improvement we can make is in Strength and Conditioning.Our ex S and C guy Blair Mills whose with the Hurricanes now is operating out of the best S&C setup in union in NZ here and has the Hurricanes humming they look bigger faster fitter than everyone there playing against.
I feel for Parra to improve now we have to go out and do things different come up with something different or we'll always be last to the watering bowl.
Coryn,
Looking at those great FB highlight reels of outstanding NZ rugby union talent you share regulary and we drool over like a kid in candy store, made me wonder: why do so few make it in the NRL?
My first gut feeling was the All Black National Pride factor, well-paid avenues like French and Japanese rudgy, and it being harder than it looks.
Hindsight is 20/20. Maybe Blair Mills who many critized, if you recall, was better than we realized. We also criticized Matt Cameron when he left in 2012. Constructively, of course (e.g. he is "garbage" and the reason our juniors are crap). I put that down to mostly well-intentioned social media culture and normal garden variety aspects of human nature from negativity bias to fear-and-trauma-induced factors.
Aussie RU players can make the transition like Joseph Suaalii, Mark Nawaqanitawase, Will Penisini. Ray Price. We've also got a few in our pathways e.g. Risati. It's definitely an avenue our club and other clubs look at. But really not that many make it, especially from NZ.
I don't think it's because NRL clubs or our club is blind or stupid.
So I consulted Pierre of Chat GPT to get more ideas, and I'd love to hear your views or others.
Example of NZ rugby talent that has played NRL (very small number, outlier)
Sonny Bill Williams (NRL: 2004–2008, 2013–2014, 2020 | Retired: 2021)
Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (NRL: 2012–2021, 2024–present | Active)
Benji Marshall (NRL: 2003–2021 | Retired: 2021)
Brad Thorn (Rugby league top level: 1994–2001 | Retired from all rugby: 2015)
Ma'a Nonu (Rugby league involvement/trials only, no established NRL career | Rugby union career: 2002–2024 approx.)
Reasons there are so few
Because the jump from elite New Zealand rugby union to elite rugby league is actually much harder than it looks from the outside.
A few major reasons:
1. NZ rugby union already captures most elite talent
The All Blacks pathway is one of the most prestigious systems in world sport.
For many NZ athletes:
rugby union is culturally dominant,
schools funnel talent into union,
provincial pathways are established early,
and becoming an All Black has enormous status.
So many elite athletes simply stay in union.
2. League and union are less transferable than people think
People see:
passing,
tackling,
running,
kicking,
and assume the sports are nearly identical.
But elite league requires:
relentless repeat-effort fitness,
compressed defensive systems,
different tackling technique,
faster ruck processing,
constant line-speed decisions,
different spatial instincts.
A union star can look completely lost in league defensive structures.
3. League especially suits certain body types
The successful converts are often:
explosive runners,
edge athletes,
offloaders,
powerful outside backs.
That’s why players like:
Sonny Bill Williams
Roger Tuivasa-Sheck
could adapt so well.
But many union positions do not translate cleanly:
locks,
props,
specialist halves,
breakdown specialists.
4. The All Blacks pathway is brutally attractive
If you're an elite NZ rugby schoolboy, the dream is often:
Super Rugby,
All Blacks,
national fame.
That prestige historically outweighed league for many players.
Australia has had more union→league movement because rugby union is not as culturally dominant there.
5. Survivorship bias
People remember the success stories:
Sonny Bill,
Brad Thorn,
RTS.
But forget:
the many trialists,
juniors,
fringe players,
failed converts.
There are probably dozens of NZ union players who attempted league pathways and disappeared into reserve grade or local competitions.
6. Modern professionalism makes switching harder
In earlier eras:
raw athleticism could bridge the gap more easily.
Modern NRL systems are now extremely specialised:
video analysis,
defensive patterning,
wrestling systems,
conditioning,
tactical repetition.
If a player doesn’t enter league systems young, catching up becomes difficult.
7. Financial reasons changed
In the 1990s and early 2000s:
rugby league often offered significantly better money.
Now:
elite union salaries are stronger,
Japanese rugby pays huge money,
Europe offers alternatives.
So fewer NZ union stars feel forced to switch.
That’s why the truly elite dual-code cases stand out so much. Someone like Sonny Bill Williams succeeding at near-world-class level in both sports is genuinely unusual — almost like an athlete making the NBA and NFL equivalent transition successfully.
Absolutely — national pride is probably a major factor, especially in New Zealand.
The All Blacks are not just a sports team in NZ; they are one of the country’s strongest national symbols. Playing for them carries:
enormous prestige,
cultural identity,
historical legacy,
and public admiration.
For many New Zealand rugby union players, becoming an All Black is viewed almost as:
a national honour,
a cultural duty,
or the pinnacle of sporting identity.
That emotional and symbolic pull can outweigh:
money,
tactical fit,
or even personal preference for league.
League historically had a different status
In New Zealand for a long time:
rugby union was the “national game,”
while rugby league was more secondary.
So switching codes could sometimes be perceived as:
abandoning the All Blacks dream,
leaving national tradition,
or choosing professionalism/commercialism over heritage.
That stigma has weakened over time, but traces of it still exist culturally.
Why dual-code stars became huge stories
Players like:
Sonny Bill Williams
Brad Thorn
became enormous cultural figures partly because they crossed a symbolic boundary, not just a sporting one.
They weren’t merely changing competitions — they were moving between two different sporting identities in New Zealand culture.
Compare with Australia
In Australia:
rugby union is not the dominant national sport,
so switching to league often carries less symbolic weight.
But in New Zealand, leaving union can almost mean stepping away from part of the national mythology surrounding the All Blacks.
That makes your national pride point quite perceptive, because the issue is not only:
tactics,
athleticism,
or contracts,
but also:
identity,
belonging,
and cultural prestige.
You forgot a few names Botica Ridge Innes Kirwan Tiuigamala Ellis and I'm sure if I could be bothered there are plenty more that have made the switch successfully.
What I'm getting at here and always have been getting at if your not willing to have a crack and go for this talent someone else will.
But you can always just continue down the failed path we are on in the outside backs stakes.The NRL is expanding and it's going to get harder to unearth talent within the sport so you've got to have a crack going else where.
I mean the last time we had a crack we found Semi sleeping on a floor in a hut in Fiji go figure and he went alright.
Arent you sick of seeing the club unearthing and recruiting dogshit outside backs.Even our own Will Penisini has a union background.
Of course it's hard of course the odds are against us but how can we do worse when you've got the Storm and Roosters of late unearthing the mentioned talent and continually looking.So what do we do stick with the same same or give something else a crack.
40 years 40 let that number marinate shit keep going like we are going and call it 50.
Coryn, well said. I'm all aboard the "urgent athlete", especially if they move the dial on momentum.
In principle you're correct, about spreading the net as wide as possible.
But let's look at your body of evidence NZ RU developed to NRL. Let's keep it to this specific field and not blur the lines.
So far: 8 from over 7,000 players to play NRL or earlier formats.
That's barely a 0.1% success rate.
Most we from the last century. A handful in century. I'm sure there is probably more we can add developed from NZ RU. But is it really that much?
So it is the problem that NRL clubs are blind, incompetent, lazy (all the things we accuse our club of) or are their other factors? Ryles has also gone on record as saying the skills transferance especially in defence is a hard crossover.
Again, I'm not saying it can't happen again or we shouldn't spread the net as far and wide as possible.
But let's just be realistic too.
Please don't take this as a personal attack on you like some do (and sometimes I'm a bit too on the nose). Your footy head and posts are fantastic. Crickey's mate, if I were in the club's four walls, I'd pay you a small fortune and fly you around to scout NZ and interviewing constantly.
I wouldn't assume we don't scout NZ though or RU ranks. It's clear we do. How much, I'm not sure. Could we do more? Maybe, The club have stated they're looking at Island nations and the places you've talked about.
Let's hope we can unearth the next Semi again, and but retaining them for longer than a few years would be just as difficult. But because the club is now attracting TPAs (thanks to the guy we want to sack) and looking to look after players and spend more on pathways more than ever that's going to help. We don't leak and cannabilze each other internally like we used to. That also helps.
The main thing right now is to get winning on the paddock as quickly as possible in a very over-heated market, however we can.
What would you say Semi Radradra is worth today or was worth to Parra vs what we have developed or had since in those stakes.
All of those mentioned guys had successful careers they went from one code to another.What we are doing in the outside backs stakes isn't working so obviously your angle is because the percentage is so small we shouldn't try even though we are failing miserably at the mentioned.Are you suggesting we should continue down the same track just hoping for success.
I mean Melbourne must be absolutely stupid then because they've been adding Union talent for years when needed yet when we need it the answer your mentioning is based off a stat.Sorry I'm still taking a swing the NZ 7s and world 7s circuit is there to be plundered and has urgent athletes galore.
Roosters got Marky Mark are they stupid to.
How bout Manly back in the day grabbing Michael O'Connor.
Noa Nandruku at the Raiders.
Theres been plenty of great rugby converts over the years just because there a small percentile your argument seems to be based off that.
God help us if it is.
The club to succeed has to go out on a limb and try something different what there doing is bottom feeding there miles behind in recruitment in the mentioned area.
That AB identity that everyone sucks cock about is under huge threat and has been for the last decade plus hence why it's the time to strike at the heart of the sport.
Its why the Warriors are attacking it at development and age grade high school levels because Union is top heavy here they aren't looking after the grass roots.What once was a game for the many is becoming a game for the few and nrl and European clubs are not only draining player talent but there draining coaching talent also.
Speaking to my friend whose the attack coach for the hurricanes whose is in talks with Robbie Deans to go be the attack coach at Harlequins in the UK and he's up n coming one of the better and brighter prospects in the coaching circles here in NZ.
Those players I mentioned and have been mentioning for years have been there to pluck but if you aren't looking or aren't all in to have a crack the ship sales and you miss out.Thing is here the last guy I mentioned played 7s that's seperate to Super a different entity hence why you look there.
If you don't know NZR has just realised this and have had a huge clean out and redirection a the top with regards to how to stop and fix what ales there game.The mentioned window may close.It's still open now but again if you aren't looking and dismiss it like you seemingly are well it's an opportunity lost.
Hoey, I feel you missed one very important statistic in your overview....
So much so that I think it throws the main argument out.
I believe you have ommitted to look at the Australian Players that have played Rugby Union and successfully made it to the pinnacle of Rugby league, those numbers and names are never ending. Rugby Union backgrounds have been sprinkled through Rugby League since Dally Messenger went professional.
I believe the culture of Union, especially in NZ has never been that coveted to want to play league in years gone by, especially while the All Blacks were so world dominating for so long.
Our own Thornett Brothers being as prime as an example's as conversion from Union and really the list goes on and on.Should I not mention Parramatta's greatest player ever in Ray Price, the only candidates being Ken and Ray both Rugby converts.
Players like Phil Hawthorn, Kevin Ryan, Michael Cleary etc etc, even many of our kids grew up not playing Rugby at a pinnacle but coming from Rugby just the same. Current Australian Wallaby, (cant spell-Penisi's mate) his name as recent as the last couple of years went the reverse way and thats happening now with Chriton, Lomax and any other hangers on that wants to play in a genuine World Cup/.
Don't forget that we had the amatuer game and the professional game as a differentiater back in days gone past.
If you are going to write a chronolgy on the subject, i think this chapter has to be added.
So I am of the view that players like the one's Coryn identifies, mainly outside backs would have little problem making the switch.
Interestingly some halves would struggle, reverse reply some speculated about Cleary going to Union. I don't think he would suit, just my opinion. Many forwards have struggled going both ways, Rugby scrummaging is much more technical with different physiques being illustrative to that with giant line out jumpers. Breakaways are the only obvious comparisan,. They say Chriton will try and play centres in Union if he makes the Australian side next year, personally I think he is dreaming at his age.
Dick Thornett was a second rower, Ken a Fullback and Ray a breakaway.
Converging back to the difficulties it has to be aknowledged that many new rules have been brought into both games that make the codes less like than previously but standby that outside backs it is not a hard conversion.
As usual and as you know, I am always a contrarian and I think these aspects have to be taken into account in the context of the discussion.
Courtesy of AI
More Grist for the Mill.... compliments of AI
Pops,
You're absolutely correct. And I don't disagree with the gist of what you and Coryn are saying.
However, I'm talking about a specific type of pizza and you're talking about the entire party and its food and drinks.
Do you feel there is a difference with a kid who played some GPS union in Australia, Aussie RU, or an NRL star going to Union THAN a player deeply developed inside elite NZ-born NR RU culture and pathways with genuine All Blacks aspirations going to play NRL?
That seems to narrow the pool quite a bit.
Maybe I'm wrong and there is no difference whatsoever. Is that what you and Coryn are saying? Could be.
Moses Leo (NZ RU Sevens) probably a good example of the “urgent athlete” Coryn is talking about. He would have been a great pick up. He's got speed and can make a break from nothing. Geez. Warbrick another with a lot of upside. Not sure why the Storm lost him. So yeah it can happen.
Ponga? He played multiple sports including RU as a kid but was picked up by the Cows at 15 or whatever and Would you say he qualifies as NZ RU pathways success story? Touch and go for mine. QLD born. Stretching...
They'be a lot of kids coming from Aussie GPS schools (we have them in our club). It would be interesting to do a comprehensive study of players with RU backgrounds, where they come from, and what age they change over the RL or the NRL, what position, etc...
Again, I'm not saying we don't explore every avenue and every pathway possible to unearth talent whether that's RU, or a guy asleep in a pub in PNG or Fiji or wherever feasible to sponsor.
We are generally in agreement. I'm just looking at the specifics and wondering.
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