Trauma snowballing syndrome and the urge to blow things up isn’t just something buried in human DNA. It's now rebranded as “high standards". Forty Years can do that. Sometimes, all it takes is a few minutes.
But let’s park the emotion for a minute. What actually happened yesterday?
The good news? We fought. Fought hard. That’s two weeks back-to-back. Despite being undermanned, we’ve already used 28 players - the most in the comp - and have the worst injury toll in the game.
The bad news? We didn't stick to what works.
Foxlab shows we made 15-9 errors. That’s the game.
If you’re handing over that much ball, you’re not winning too many.
Fair dinkum. You could have a $17 million roster and a recruitment team featuring Jesus, Mary, Mohammed and Buddha. You’re still getting beat.
Even the Panthers lost 32-16 to the Dogs with 15-8 errors two weeks ago. The Storm made 13-9 errors and lost 48-6 to Souths this week.
Given the injury crisis and rebuilding roster and the fact we’ve been losing the yardage battle every week (see table above) and possession except for once (Broncos game), the adjustment isn't complicated. It's obvious. We have to kick longer, at least over 600 metres, chase hard, hold the ball, make no more errors than the opponents, and complete above 80%.
When we do that, we compete or win.
When we don’t, we lose, usually badly.
Yes, it's boring. It’s not revolutionary. It's not sexy. It just works.
In the first half, despite errors, we kept largely to that blueprint. The kicking game and chase was doing its job - close to 500 metres - was keeping things within possibility of an upset. We were still in the fight at 7-6. Hanging in by our finger nails.
But in the second half, we fell away from that. Kick metres dropped to around 240m. Errors kept piling up at critical moments in the wrong places. We invited Manly to "please enjoy almost unlimited possession and field position." Game over.
Emotions will point to the highlight reel.
Saab and Hopoate, right and left wingers, combining to slice through the middle.
Garrick making a break on our left edge.
Sean Russell missing a tackle and getting steamrolled.
Oka bashing Walker out of the game and running over blokes like he’s late for a Sunday roast.
But cold-hard stats tell a deeper story.
The game didn’t slip away gradually.
Thirteen Minutes of Choas
It snapped. Between the 50th and 63rd.
The score went from 7-6 to 27-6.
4 tries in 13-minutes.
Lights out.
But that thirteen minutes of chaos didn’t happen in isolation.
It sat in within a mammoth 20-minute momentum swing. Almost one long fatigue-feast of a death zone.
Between the 46th and 66th.
Possession was almost 80% against us.
13 /15 vs 2 / 4 sets
87% v 50% completions
It all kicked off with a single error.
Then the avalanche.
5 errors
2 restarts
1 penalty
1 sin bin
4 tries
20–0
We didn't lose the game over 80 minutes.
For 67 minutes, we led 18-7.
Uncomfortable Truths
When momentum shifts nowadays, it doesn’t just shift, it accelerates. One error becomes two. Two becomes a set restart. Then a penalty. Then fatigue. Then someone’s in the bin. Then you’re watching wingers carve up the middle with your head spinning.
Naturally, the You're Fired Posts were inevitable. Sack R&R. Sack the Team. Sack Ryles. Sack the board. Sack the Club. Rebuild the club by Tuesday morning. Get Shane Richardson in, he'll bring us Galvin. Get Matt Cameron. He'll bring Ice and Talagi back along with Alamoti and Jenkins. Job Done. Who said running a $200m organization was hard and needed 5-year plans?
Right now, until we get troops back and new signings like Su'a, this team doesn’t have the punch or luxury of intricate playing loose or expressive footy for long periods. Or to look hot. We’ve got to stick to a simple blueprint, and it’s about as exciting as a trip to the dentist. Hard yakka.
We know exactly what works. We just don’t always stick to it. And when we don’t, we get thirteen minutes like that or worse.
Replies
Just because of the sheer volume of recruitment and retention 'experts' who said MON should be fired for NOT paying overs for Russell, that 44-66 minute period also featured:
Russell lazy marker defense and chase permits Manly a long break, leads to first second half try next play (50th min)
Russell misses Garrick cold on the line for a try (55th min)
Russell doesn't bother to cover his inside shoulder and lets Saab waltz onto an inside ball, runs for a try (62nd min)
Yes Russell is an improved player, but it would not have taken long for the R&R experts to critique the club for having paid overs for Russell to keep him! Our two centres are currently serviceable, but neither are attacking weapons and neither are defensive powerhouses. Pensini must surely be running the tank dry as a backfield battering ram? And yet centre is the one responsible for making the call rush up or slide out (for backrowers and wingers). Rather than pay overs for serviceable, maybe the club needs to return to the mindset that recruited Lomax to play centre (I know, didn't pan out as planned)?
Aside from the errors, and conceding six agains and penalties, it just looked like the game got a bit fast for the Eels that period of play?
Russell could have been tied up before the Bears even had a shot at him. When you consistently allow players in your top 17 to shop themselves around you're going to lose them to higher bidders. No one is suggesting we over pay for Russell. More that we should not have been in the situation where we had to. (Unless we wanted him gone of course)
Muttman, you do realise players (via their managers) like to test their value on the open market before committing to a new contract. For all we know, the club may have offered Russell a deal commensurate with his value to the team mid way through last year but Russell tested his value and the Bears offered more money.
The thing that shits me on this forum is that some of you talk like you have a desk in MoN's office and witness daily his alleged R&R crimes. I'm not saying he's a good operator, nor am I saying he's a bad operator because I don't know - and neither do any of you.
MON's inability to assemble a Premiership roster is self evident. You don't need a desk in his office to see that. If he was a good operator we'd all know it by now.
What was 2022 then?
Was that the GF we played where it was over at HT. And it was Mahoney's last game at the club before we replaced him with Josh Hodgson?
Your views on mark O'Neill have become so skewed it's impossible to take anything you say as being credible
He's been here for over 7 years. We're currently sitting in 15th with the worst defence in the NRL and this will be our 4th year missing the finals. It's going really well 👍🏻
Agree Muttman, I just can't believe people think he's not least partially to blame for this crap.
Once upon a time, you used to be a considered poster. Nowadays, all you do is post shit about MoN without actually knowing specifics.
Let's take the Pezet example for instance. Do you think MoN concocted that deal on his own? Or do you think maybe Ryles had something to do with it considering he coached him at the Storm? Do you think the decision to bring him on for one year was run by Moses at all? If Moses says, "no way", do you think he lands at Parra?
These decisions are not made in a vacuum and your constant use of MoN as your sole punching bag attacks your credibility on this site.
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