As the Bunnies tumble down the ladder, places are up for grabs.
But a late charge towards the finals for Penrith and Newcastle? Forget it.
Here’s how your team sits, what their run home looks like, and how we think they’ll fare.
Welcome to The Run Home.
Round 23
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PREDICTED FINAL LADDER
1 STORM
2 ROOSTERS
3 RAIDERS
4 EELS
5 SEA EAGLES
6 RABBITOHS
7 BRONCOS
8 SHARKS
9 PANTHERS
10 KNIGHTS
11 WARRIORS
12 TIGERS
13 DRAGONS
14 BULLDOGS
15 COWBOYS
16 TITANS
PREDICTED FINALS SERIES
First qualifying final: STORM (1) v EELS (4)
First elimination final: SEA EAGLES (5) v (8) SHARKS
Second qualifying final: ROOSTERS (2) v (3) STORM
Second elimination final: RABBITOHS (6) v (7) BRONCOS
Every team’s run home is analysed below. They are listed in their current ladder order.
YOUR CLUB’S RUN HOME
1 MELBOURNE STORM (36 points, 277+/-)
Formline (most recent first): WLWWL
Remaining games: Titans (H), Sea Eagles (A), Cowboys (H)
Key injuries: Brandon Smith, Albert Vete (season), Christian Welch (season)
Analysis: Last time they were beaten at home, the Storm bounced back and spanked the Broncos.
Pray for the Titans this week then. A rematch with the Sea Eagles in Round 24 is a potential banana skin, but there’s no reason they can’t finish the season with three straight wins.
Predicted run home: WWW
Predicted finish: 1st (42 points)
Where to for Taylor?
4:202 SYDNEY ROOSTERS (32 points, 232 +/-)
Formline (most recent first): WWWWW
Remaining games: Dragons (A), Panthers (H), Rabbitohs (A)
Key injuries: Jake Friend (finals), Ryan Hall, Boyd Cordner and Siosiua Taukeiaho (Round 23).
Analysis: The victory over Canberra in the capital less than two weeks ago has given them a bit of breathing room and their superior points difference will help them stave off any threat from below.
Wins should follow against the Dragons and Panthers, while they can put a real dent in Souths’ premiership hopes in the final round.
Predicted run home: WWW
Predicted finish: 2nd (38 points)
MORE NRL NEWS
HEAD TO HEAD: Ikin and Kent clash over Storm tactics
AN ACCIDENT: Legend backs Pangai appeal for crusher tackle on Maloney
SMITH BACKLASH: Raiders fire back over Storm ace’s ear grab
3 CANBERRA RAIDERS (30 points, 157+/-)
Formline (most recent first): WLWWW
Remaining games: Sea Eagles (H), Sharks (A), Warriors (H)
Key injuries: Brad Abbey (season)
Analysis: After their emphatic win over the Storm, Ricky Stuart’s men now have a chance to lock up third spot.
That will schedule a rematch with the Roosters.
Manly and the Sharks are difficult challenges, but after seeing off the Storm, Canberra will be brimming with confidence heading into the finals.
Predicted run home: WWW
Predicted finish: 3rd (36 points)
Cronk talks Tevaga tackle
1:124 MANLY SEA EAGLES (28 points, 92 +/-)
Formline (most recent first): WLWWW
Remaining games: Raiders (A), Storm (H), Eels (A)
Key injuries: Curtis Sironen (Round 23), Brad Parker (Round 24), Toafofoa Sipley (season)
Analysis: Of the sides vying for fourth spot, the Sea Eagles have the toughest run-in.
An away trip to a confident Canberra side will not be easy, while the Storm will be vying for revenge at Brookvale Oval.
The final day match-up with the Eels is fascinating.
And if you tipped those two teams to be so high up the ladder at this stage in the season, you’re probably telling lies.
Predicted run home: LLW
Predicted finish: 5th (30 points)
MORE NRL NEWS
HEAD TO HEAD: Ikin and Kent clash over Storm tactics
AN ACCIDENT: Legend backs Pangai appeal for crusher tackle on Maloney
SMITH BACKLASH: Raiders fire back over Storm ace’s ear grab
5 SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS (28 points, 75 +/-)
Formline (most recent first): LLLWW
Remaining games: Broncos (A), Warriors (A), Roosters (H)
Key injuries: Braidon Burns (TBC), Sam Burgess TBC), Alex Johnston (Round 23), George Burgess (suspended — finals)
Analysis: Injuries to Sam Burgess, Tom Burgess and Braidon Burns are huge blows to their run home.
Adam Reynolds is battling with a knock, while Damien Cook’s attack has been blunted since Origin.
Their spot in the top four is in danger, as Wayne Bennett said, and so much so in fact that their hopes of making the cut hinge on the outcome of Parramatta’s clash with Manly.
Predicted run home: LWL
Predicted finish: 6th (30 points)
Kent sprays Ikin over Storm
3:386 PARRAMATTA EELS (28 points, 51+/-)
Formline (most recent first): WWWWL
Remaining games: Bulldogs (H), Broncos (A), Sea Eagles (H)
Key injuries: Blake Ferguson (TBC)
Analysis: From fourth to wooden spooners and back again.
If the last few weeks are anything to go by, the Eels have shown they can match it with the best.
Their final game of the season — against the Sea Eagles — could be a shootout for fourth spot. With home advantage, you would be brave to back against a Parramatta side who will be boosted by the return of Blake Ferguson.
Predicted run home: WWL
Predicted finish: 4th (32 points)
MORE NRL NEWS
COOKED: Bennett says Souths aren’t ‘terminal’, but these stats say otherwise
NOTHING TO SEE EAR! Shocking vision exposes Cameron Smith’s dirty tricks
I’LL CUT IT OFF: Farah’s stunning admission over broken leg
7 BRISBANE BRONCOS (23 points, -40+/-)
Formline (most recent first): WWWLW
Remaining games: Rabbitohs (H), Eels (H), Bulldogs (A)
Key injuries: Matt Gillett (Round 23), Tom Dearden (TBC), Richie Kennar (indefinite), Jack Bird (season)
Analysis: Much hinges on the outcomes of Tevita Pangai Jr at the judiciary and this week’s reunion with former coach Wayne Bennett.
It’s almost poetic that the Broncos can all but seal a finals berth against the Bunnies given their start to the season and the annihilation they received at the start of the season.
The great bonus for Brisbane is their draw with the Warriors a few weeks ago gives them a point advantage over their rivals which may prove vital come the end of Round 25.
Predicted run home: WLW
Predicted finish: 7th (27 points)
8 CRONULLA SHARKS (22 points, 8+/-)
Formline (most recent first): WLWWL
Remaining games: Warriors (H), Raiders (H), Tigers (A)
Key injuries: Matt Moylan (TBC), Andrew Fifita (TBC)
Analysis: The Sharks sit precariously close to the trap door but they can make a huge push to secure finals football when they host the Warriors this weekend.
Cronulla are in control of their future, and it’s up to them as to how it ends up.
They should have enough to see off both the Kiwi side and the Tigers, while the match-up with the Raiders could go either way.
Predicted run home: WLW
Predicted finish: 8th (26 points)
Lane: 'I felt like an idiot'
0:389 PENRITH PANTHERS (22 points, -75 +/-)
Formline (most recent first): LWLLW
Remaining games: Cowboys (A), Roosters (A), Knights (H)
Key injuries: Jarome Luai (TBC), Wayde Egan (indefinite)
Analysis: The Panthers run hot one week, and cold the next.
They could be anything, but with a team packed full of homegrown young guns, they may lack the experience to see out that final game with the Knights.
Expect them to overcome the Cowboys in Townsville, but they face tricky assignments in the Roosters and a Newcastle side also desperate to make the eight.
Predicted run home: WLW
Predicted finish: 9th (26 points)
MORE NRL NEWS
GALLEN: How ‘messy’ Smith gets away with ‘more than most’
TEAM TIPS: Injury scores for NRL’s big guns after brutal round
ROUND 22 TALKING POINTS: Contender’s horror slide; star’s ‘rubbish’ act
10 NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS (20 points, 15 +/-)
Formline (most recent first): WLLLL
Remaining games: Tigers (A), Titans (H), Panthers (A)
Key injuries: James Gavet (Round 22), Slade Griffin (Round 22), Edrick Lee (Round 25)
Analysis: The Knights went on a fine winning run earlier this year and after their emphatic victory over the Cowboys, gave a glimpse of what they could yet do.
With a strong for and against, the Knights have a sneaky, albeit unlikely, chance of getting into the eight.
Predicted run home: WWL
Predicted finish: 10th (24 points)
Peter Beattie ready to walk?
1:0811 WESTS TIGERS (20 points, -64 +/-)
Formline (most recent first): LLWWL
Remaining games: Knights (H), Dragons (A), Sharks (H)
Key injuries: Robbie Farah (TBC), Moses Mbye (Round 25), Josh Aloiai (TBC), Mahe Fonua (indefinite), Ben Matulino (indefinite)
Analysis: No Robbie Farah and Moses Mbye means the Tigers hopes of playing finals are slipping by the week. Back to back losses against the Bulldogs and the Sea Eagles are likely to come back to bite them.
Predicted run home: LLL
Predicted finish: 12th (20 points)
12 WARRIORS (19 points, -98 +/-)
Formline (most recent first): LWLLW
Remaining games: Sharks (A), Rabbitohs (H), Raiders (A)
Key injuries: Tohu Harris (indefinite), Karl Lawton (indefinite), Nathaniel Roache (season), David Fusitu’a (Round 23), Issac Luke (suspension, Round 23), Gerard Beale (season)
Analysis: How to know what the Warriors are going to do?
If you thought it was tough tipping their games each week, imagine how frustrating life is for Stephen Kearney.
They can cause one last upset when they host the Bunnies for their final home game of the season, but away trips to Cronulla and Canberra are tough tasks.
Having said that, this is the Warriors and they will probably beat the Sharks and Raiders and concede 50 against the Bunnies.
Predicted run home: LWL
Predicted finish: 11th (21 points)
Annesley defends Sharks try
2:0513 CANTERBURY BULLDOGS (18 points, -166 +/-)
Formline (most recent first): WWWLL
Remaining games: Eels (A), Cowboys (A), Broncos (H)
Key injuries: Sauaso Sue (season), Marcelo Montoya (season)
Analysis: We keep writing them off, and they keep defying the odds.
The Bulldogs haven’t played pretty but they have found a way to win in their last three, seeing off Souths, the Wests Tigers and Penrith.
What they lack in fire power, they make up for with team spirit and grit.
The test against the high-flying Eels seems a bridge too far, as does facing a Brisbane side which contains the rampaging Payne Haas.
But the Dogs can take lots of positives from this season into next.
Predicted run home: LLL
Predicted finish: 14th (20 points)
14 ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS (16 points, -106+/-)
Formline (most recent first): LWLLL
Remaining games: Roosters (H), Tigers (H), Titans (A)
Key injuries: Patrick Kaufusi (TBC) Jordan Pereira (indefinite), Jack de Belin (indefinite)
Analysis: Whether it’s long term injuries, suspensions, Origin or the Jack de Belin case, there have been a number of obstacles to the Dragons coming good on 2018’s potential.
The Roosters, who of course kicked off their mid-season slump on Anzac Day, are on another level to the Red V right now. The Tigers shape as a more realistic scalp, while the clash with the Titans gives them a chance to finish the year with some credibility.
Predicted run home: LWW
Predicted finish: 13th (20 points)
Benji nearly gave it all away
1:0215 NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS (16 points, -135+/-)
Formline (most recent first): LLLLW
Remaining games: Panthers (H), Bulldogs (H), Storm (A)
Key injuries: Te Maire Martin (season), Justin O’Neill (indefinite), Ben Hampton (Round 23-25), Kurt Baptiste (season), Nene Macdonald (released)
Analysis: Their season has been compounded by an injury crisis to their backline. The loss of Josh McGuire to suspension and Jason Taumalolo and Michael Morgan to injuries haven’t helped Paul Green’s cause. 2020 is a chance to reboot, and they’re in the market to improve their squad.
Predicted run home: LLL
Predicted finish: 15th (16 points)
16 GOLD COAST TITANS (10 points, -223 +/-)
Formline (most recent first): LLLLL
Remaining games: Storm (A), Knights (A), Dragons (H)
Key injuries: Shannon Boyd (season), Ryan James (season), Dale Copley (indefinite), Michael Gordon (TBC)
Analysis: They’re on the beach sipping cocktails as you read this.
Predicted run home: LLLL
Predicted finish: 16th (10 points)
