Eels Blogs

So I've done a quick study of each teams run home and see where everyone is likely to end up based on strength of schedule (SoS).

The caveat is that this is obviously a static look at the ladder & draw, and doesn't take into account teams that are in a spot where they shouldn't be based on form or injuries, eg Canberra are currently 7th, but are busted and might not even make the 8 now.

What I have done is take each teams remaining 11 games, added up the SoS based on teams current ladder position, divided by 11, (for the number of rounds left) and then subtracted it from their current ladder position to give a figure that tries to provide an idea of where they should finish. The higher the SoS, the easier the schedule. The higher the average, the lower the ladder position that team will face on average for the remainder of the season.

The Contenders - locked in

1) Eels ... SoS - 102, ave 9.27. With only the Storm (3rd)(r15), the Panthers (2nd)(r18) & the Rabbitohs (6th)(r16) left to play in the top 6 the eels are primed for the 1st minor premiership since 2005. Indeed the round 18 derby against the Panthers has a distinct possibility of being the minor premiership decider. To pad out their schedule the Eels play 5 of the bottom 6 in the run home.

2) Panthers ... SoS - 112, ave 10.18. The mountain men have the softest draw in the league with only the aforementioned round 18 derby against any current top 6 opponent. They have 7 games against the bottom 7 teams. They have no excuse to not be top 2.

3) Storm ... SoS - 102, ave 9.27. The men in purple have a reasonable run home having the luxury of playing 5 of the bottom 6, but will need all those wins as they have a tough stretch from rounds 12-15 where they play the 5th placed Knights, the 4th placed Roosters & finally the top of the table Eels with the only respite coming from a r13 date with the presumptive wooden spooners the Bulldogs. However, once through that tough stretch they should be run the table.

4) Roosters ... SoS - 100, ave 9.09. In addition to gimmes against 4 of the bottom 5, the Roosters schedule is loaded with games against mid table wannabes like the Raiders (7th)(r10 & r17), the Tigers (8th)(r15), the Sharks (10th)(r19) & the Rabbitohs (6th)(r20). Their only real tests remaining are the Storm (3rd)(r14) & the Knights (5th)(r18).

5) Knights ... SoS - 108, ave 9.82. Only the Panthers have a softer draw than Newcastle, but their two remaining testers are doozies, the Storm (3rd)(r12) & the Roosters (4th)(r18). Those two games will sort out whether they are geniune contenders or the 2020 version of the 2019 Eels, ascendant, but not the real deal yet. They do have the luxury of playing 6 of the bottom 7 to pad their F/A. The reward should be playing whichever teams falls arse backwards into the 8th seed like the Broncos last year.

The Wannabes - maybe ????

6) Rabbitohs ... SoS - 92, ave 8.36. They have one of the tougher draws of this middle group, however they are probably the most talented, and are the healthiest, (at the moment), so I'll give them the benefit of the doubt, even though they've yet to beat anyone, which will be significant as they still have to play 4 of the top 5, the Knights (5th)(r10), and then a murderous last month with games against the Eels (1st)(r16), the Storm (3rd)(r17) & the Roosters (4th)(r20). They also only get 3 games against the bottom 6, so the critical games will be the proverbial "4 pointers" against the Raiders (7th)(r11), the Sea Eagles (9th)(r15) & the Tigers (8th)(r18). Win all 3 plus the 3 gimmes will see them make the 8.

7) Raiders ... SoS - 107, ave 9.73. Unlike the Rabbitohs, last years grand finalists have quite a gentle run home with games against all of the bottom 7 teams, with the remaing games against the Roosters (4th)(r10 & r17), the Panthers (2nd)(r13) & the Rabbitohs (6th)(r11). However, health is a major problem for the Raiders with long term injuries to Josh Hodgson, Bailey Simonsson, Sio Soliola, John Bateman, Corey Horsburgh & Emre Guler leaving the available troops thin on the ground.

8) Sea Eagles ... SoS - 90, ave 8.18. Another team with a brutal run home with tough games against the Eels (1st)(r10), the Panthers (2nd)(r12), the Knights (5th)(r14) & the Storm (3rd)(r16). They do have 5 games against the bottom 6, including their last 3, by which time Tommy Turbo & Dylan Walker should be back. Critical 4 point games against the Rabbitohs (6th)(r15) & the Tigers (8th)(r17) could decide their playoff fate. If Turbo can be back, and if they can claw their way into the 8th seed, it might make for an uncomfortable first round knock out game for the Knights.

9) Tigers ... SoS - 72, ave 6.55. I might have given them the benefit of the doubt and squeezed them into the 8th seed if not for their schedule. It is a dead set bloodbath. comfortably the toughest draw of any team in the league, including the teams below them, it gives the Tigers virtually zero chance of making the finals yet again. 6 of their last 11 games are against top 5 opposition, including the Eels (1st)(r11 & r20), the Panthers (2nd)(r16), the Storm (3rd)(r19), the Roosters (4th)(r15) & the Knights (5th)(r13). Yikes !!! On top of that they have 4 pointers against the Rabbitohs (6th)(r18) & the Sea Eagles (9th)(r17). Their only repite is 3 games against the bottom 6. Put it this way, if the Tigers can make it in they will have well and truly earned it. Good luck with that.

The Rest - see ya next year

Not even going to waste my time

Please note, that I wrote this whilst the dragons v Sea Eagles game was in progress.