So if you like a flutter on the NRL you might find this interesting.
I like looking at betting stats, especially line betting stats.
Line betting for the uninitiated is a bet you make on a points handicap score in any given game.
For example, if you make a bet on Parra 6.5+ it means you're betting Parra will win by a margin of 6.5 points or more.
Or from the same game, if you bet on the Sharks at -6.5 it means you're betting the sharks will get within 6.5 points of Parra even if they lose.
I like line betting because it's a bet on reliability, can I rely on a team to perfrom in a given manner, be that good or bad.
As a punter the worse thing in trying to "catch flies with chopsticks" - those teams that let you down one week, then shock you the next.....not only a tipsters, and punters nightmare but a coaches nightmare, not knowing what's coming week to week.
Lets look at some stats.
This data is from the 16 games before this weekend. (green means they beat the line in their last game and red means they didn't)
As you can see Melbourse is far and away the most reliable team in the NRL, this means if they are expected to win big they do, if they are expected to lose narrowly they either win or beat the line - think of it as a "clanger" meter....Melbourne rarely dissappoint
Parra is the 2nd most reliable, and from our 17 games this year we've beat the line 14 times. I think this is a good measure of our improved consistancy this year.
If you look down the bottom of the ladder you see those teams that either promise something but fail to deliver like Raiders, or who have clanger after clanger like the Dogs, and Broncos.
What surprised me was Penrith - about half the time they don't meet the bookie's expectations..
As a side note - if you back a team every game over 24 games you need them to beat the line about 65% of the time to be profitable given line bets pay $1.90.
There you go stats nerds.
Replies
Nice Embers thank you for this idea, if we can get maybe over 55% out of this system it would be profitable . Definitely worth a try
Is there a site that updates these stats on a weekly basis as I'm sure they change over time..
I run my own stats but if you know where to look you can find it on Sportsbet .. it's about 6 clicks in but it's there.
I like to look at the trend over a season, sone teams go on a run where they beat the line or can't beat tye line even if they're winning games.
You need to get the line right about 65% of the time because it pays 1.90 so you need to win a line bet about 15 from 24 games to be profitable
yeah thx. I'll definitely check it out
65% seems pretty high, is that achievable ?
Well it's gambling....but if you backed Melb or Parra every week at the line this year you are well in front - Melb line bets gave only list twice this year - Parra line bets gave only lost 3 times this year
PM me Chiefy 👍
Embers, see if you can click on the pm in chat
Hi Chiefy sorry I just saw this
Throw in Josh to score a try or two and your making a nice easy return each game