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Amidst the head coaching saga, sit two young, hot things. No, not Jason Ryles and Josh Hannah, the rumoured leading candidates. Just look at Margie Robbie and Ryan Gosling. Sizzling hot stuff in a modernized version of the “Barbie World”. Unsurprising, it made a killing at the box office. And we know our footy board, as banking and forensic accountants are doing well financially off-field. Not so much on-field, though. Recently, we have been wandering the desert with 1 win from 8 games waiting for Moses the Messiah who finally resurrected us last week. 

So, going off the rumoured shortlist of six, of June 3rd-4th - Rookies Ryles and Hannah, Cheika, Barrett, Mad Madge, and Marine McDermott - the decision seems to rest on two polar opposite ideologies: Appearances and trend-following or competence. A younger, Modernized Branding or an older, more proven choice from a limited pool.

Any coaching appointment is a risk, so do they chase the hot, young thing in Ryles or Hannah - with some trend following of the Websters, Paytons, Benjis, Fitzys- or the older experienced archetypes with “demonstrated competence” - namely McDermott who sits head and shoulders above the rest?

The ultimate optical solution and best of all worlds in marketing and footy, and the most highly prized vintage model in the game - Bennett - was lost. Way before the Eels board's recent secret treasure hunt of May 1st -21st. Realistically, as McElduff and Sarantinos did not chase Bennett last year, they stood next to no chance of outgunning their competitors, once the Rabbits aimed up their Multi-Billionaire Artillery that way, likely well before Jason Demetriou's official sacking on April 30th.

Assuming McEluff and Sarantinos are fair-dinkum serious about the Eels “winning premierships” and being of a high-performance winning culture as they publicly stated on May 21st - not just optical platitudes - there are at least five urgent on-field items to address.

 

Ageing roster rebuild or reconditioning

While, Sarantinos noted the Eels have a “strong roster” that would appeal to any incoming head coach, this is only partially true. It’s ageing - and on the decline since the 2019-2022 cycle - as results post 2022 clearly show despite the Mercurial bi-polic difference Moses and Gutherson make to the team.

Basically in the late 20s, as studies show, peak power metric based performances start declining, which also explains why many rugby league empires, unless rebuilt and reconditioned, rise and fall.

Paolo,RCG, Matterson, Sivo, Gutherson, Cartwright, Moses, Makatoa and Lane hit 31-32. Joe Ofahengaue and Joey Lussick hit 30. Halves are an exception because they are relying more on speed between the ears, gamesmanship and play-making abilities rather than raw power metrics. That's up to 11 from the starting 17, depending if Lussick or Makatoa are used.

 

 

Almost every team that wins the comp has an average age slightly lower than the league-wide average.

Mike Meehall Wood, May 21st, comparing Eels and Souths rosters, concluding the Eels were older overall

 

That is the reality the head coach faces: one of the oldest if not the oldest rosters in the competition.

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Stronger Systems and structures

When Moses returned last week, we looked like a different team last week, R13, with him back.

This year, when Moses was out, we lost 7 from 8 games (13% win rate) conceding over 34 points a game (av. Score 17.7 - 34.3). But without Moses and Gutherson, we still have over 1200 plus NRL experience. What good is all that experience?

When Moses played, we have won 3 from 4 (75% win rate) to date conceding 20 points a game (av. Score 26.5 - 20).

It gets worse without Gutherson. The Eels have lost 13 straight without Gutherson, and have never won (0/5) without Gutherson and Moses.

Other clubs such as the Panthers (without Cleary and more), Cronulla (without Hynes), the Storm (without Munster, Papy, Hughes), the Knights (without Ponga), and even the Raiders (without Fogarty) have managed far better without their best player(s).

It shows our systems and fundamentals are lagging behind others, highly sensitive and vulnerable: they break down easily without one or two individuals.

It's another urgent area, that may see further decline considering the age-factor, needing replenishing of younger legs balancing out the experience factor.

 

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Elite Pathways

This is one for the brains’ trust and big-picture planning and implementation - GM, CEO and Chairmans. The head coach needs to focus on winning, and develops incoming juniors and recruits.

There is a correlation of title winning teams and their pathways into the top grade. We’ve seen that with the Panthers (2021-23), Storm’s elite pathways that keep producing, even the Roosters pathways that attracts talent from other juniors’ even other other flash in the pan premiership teams like the Tigers (2005), Knights (1997, 2001), and even Madge's Souths (2014).

From 1987, the year after the last title, the Eels have won 13/36 Harold Matthews (U17) and 8/36 SG Ball (U19). We have the most dominance here. The next best is the Panthers. We have 21 titles, almost 30 percent of silverware, for zero titles in the top grade. Ziltch. Nada. A Fat Zero. That’s almost a third of silverware in the those juniors age-groups pathways.

  1. The Eels  - 21 U17-19 Titles for 0 NRL titles
  2. Panthers - 10 U17-19 Titles for 5 NRL first-grade titles
  3. Knights -    U17-19 Titles for 2 NRL first grade titles
  4. Bulldogs -  U17-19 Titles for 3 NRL first-grade titles
  5. Roosters - 4  U19 titles for 4 NRL first-grade titles
  6. Sharks    -  U17-19 Titles for 1 NRL title
  7. Raiders -   2  U17 Titles for 3 NRL titles
  8. Manly -      2  U17 Titles for 4 NRL titles
  9. Dragons-   2  U19 Titles for 1 NRL title

The on-going issue of Elite Pathways is not an easy fix, and requires long-term and big picture planning. However, as Gus Gould has shown as a hyper-proactive pathways guru, GM, more CEO, in a short span at the Dogs it can be improved within a decade rather than decades.

Eels last won the SG Ball 2023 so there is a bunch of juniors to develop - some of which may make the transition into quality first graders despite already losing Sanders. We have a long history of losing or rejecting talent such as Haumole Olakau'atu, Darren Lockyer, Pat Richards, Brett Hodgson, Jamie Lyon, Andrew Ryan, James Maloney, Paul Gallen, Daniel Tupou, Luke Keary, David Klemmer. So do a lot of other clubs. But, we have a grand canyon sized translation problem from lower junior success to top grade success.

So, there is an opportunity now. 

That is all the more reason to hire a competent head coach, with the more traditional "father-figure" types with life experience that works for the top coaches such as Bennett and Bellamy, or at least one dripping in success like Trent Robinson. From the candidates, only McDermott, Madge and Cheika have this archetypical presence.

McDermott by far has the most life experience, as a former Gulf War servine Royal Marine, pro-boxer, a former fiery test player, the most successful Super League coach in history - and teaching capabilities that go beyond boring drills that most coaches employ. He gamifies drills to avoid staleness that we often see - and saw with Arthur as well. Who does that?

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Relationships mean everything to McDermott; another lesson he learned from his marine combat days under fire shoulder-to-shoulder. 

 

 

In rugby league we're very technical and you spend so much time behind a laptop trying to work it all out.

But that's unless I know who my players truly are.

I want to know where they're from, how they were brought up, whether they're married and have kids. I want to know how they treat their wife and kids.  I want to know their views on religion and politics and adversity.

Brian McDermott [1]

 

More creative tactical strategies

For so long we have based our game around a predictable middle “power game” depending on Moses' big boot and possession dominance.

It's worked in part, but it's also meant we are large, less mobile and easy to fatigue especially as they age. This has contributed to defensive flaws via compressed middle and rucks that cause Swiss-cheese holes on the outside and edges that can be exploited easily with direct, sweep plays and fast hands.

It a reason why in Arthur's ten years we saw so many huge blowout losses.

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In the Speed Era, the game is getting faster, with fewer stoppages in play and set restarts, we're getting older and slower.

 Lomax helps from next year, but we need younger legs, middle mobility as well as speed, x-factor and yardage from our back five, to mount pressure and help unleash our full gamit of eyes up footy creativity, traditional offloading and second-phase play. 

But for that to happen the Eels also need more resilience, especially defensively, which has progressively been declining.

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Resilience: The Glue

It all comes down to defence and doing the fundamentals with gutso and intensity. Defence is the barometer of teamwork, all the collective on-field and off-field habits - the face of culture.

Defence is the hardest part of the game. It is where resilience, courage and character is found. It is also where the Eels have struggled for a long time.

To date, this season, Eels have the second-worst defence in the competition (conceding 29.5 per game).

While Moses and Gutherson’s R13 return made a huge difference last week, the warning signs are flashing red sirens and blowing smoke knocking on heavens’ door. However, to think it’s just a Brad Arthur 2024 issue would be highly naive. The Eels goal-line defence is often flimsy making errors upfield they can’t defend.

In Arthur’s decade we had 50 blowout losses (18 or more), and have been in sharp decline since 2022, arguably it started earlier.

Since mid-2023 (after R17) the Eels defence has leaked 30.4 points per game.

That’s equivalent to the third worst in the Eels 78 year history. The worst ever was in 1995 (31.35pg). The second worst and the worst in NRL history was in 2013 (30.83 pg).

Without Moses this year (over 7 games, R4-R12) we were leaking 33.1 pg. That’s considerably worse than the worst.

Is anyone suggesting this is one of the worst teams in the Eels’ history? So, why have they been defending as such?

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Since 2006, the last eight years 7 out of 8 premiers were top-two defence, with top-four being the lowest. Over the last 19 years - since the 2005 Tigers - no grand final winner has had a defence that has conceded more than 18.92 points per game on average (the 2015 Cowboys). And all defences were top four except for the 2015 Cowboys.

Only two teams in the game’s history have had defences worse than 8th rank: the 2001 Knights and the 2005 Tigers.

But, if you dig deeper, and avoid the lazy temptation to think attack is the best defence, you'l find it still comes down to resilience in defence among other factors. From mid-season the 2005 Tigers had the best attack and defence (av. score 38-14). The 2001 Knights, like the Eels with Moses, were a completely different side with Andrew Johns playing. From R18, when Andrew Johns was playing the Knights average score was 40.6 - 19.22 (which is akin to 1st in attack, 2nd in defence). Without Johns they were the bi-polar opposite: an average score of 19.88 - 31.75 close to the worst.

The dominant cycles in the game (Eels 1981-83, 86; Panthers 2021-23; Saints 1956-66; Roosters 2018-19) involved consistent top-2 premier defence.

 

The glue that combines all of this is defence and resilience.

Without that everything else from systems to junior development, even your ability to mount pressure to fully realize your attacking potential. It all either struggles or falls apart eventually.

If we’re really fair dinkum about “winning premierships” than just making up the numbers and happy to rest on finals’ appearance, then this is an area we need to work on, immediately.

 

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McDermott helped attract and coach Sonny Bill Williams for the Wolfpacks

 

If you ask me why I've succeeded it's because I was in the Royal Marines.

You have this unbelievable sense of achievement and of overcoming adversity.

That's the confidence it breeds.

Brian McDermott [2]

 

McDermott stands head and shoulders above

Of all the five or six candidates mentioned by the media, only McDermott stands out in this department, from least to most experienced:

 

  1. Cheika - a handful of head coaching for Lebanon (lost 16-82 in two games against Australia and New Zealand; beat Ireland, Jamaica and Malta).
  2. Ryles - one NRL game, no finals experience
  3. Hannay - 37% over 2 yrs (defence 8th-10th), no finals experience
  4. Barrett - 32% over 5 yrs (defence 11th-16th), one finals loss 0%
  5. Madge - 49% overall in the NRL over 10 yrs, but 37% over the last and latest 6yrs (defence 11th-15th), a 55%-57% finals record (NRL and Super league), 2014 Title with Souths
  6. McDermott - 58% overall over 15 yrs in Super League, most successful SL coach in history (4 SL Titles and 2 Challenge Cups), 81% finals record (13/16), 100% grand final conversion (4/4), 2023-24

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McDermott - over last two years improved the Knights to the best in their NRL history in a two year period; and they are not traditionally a great defensive unit, despite missing their best players in Ponga for large chucks, and may still decline.

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It's not just this, or his six titles as the most successful coach in Super League that impresses. It's his finals record - almost 90% (13/16) and every grand final he was in (4/4) - the best of all candidate.

And it's made more impressive by the fact his teams were not always the the top 2 teams in the competition (see table above). Leeds was already in decline from its heady days before McDermott took charge. Two of his grand finals were with teams that came fifth. And since he's left Leeds have not won a title and have struggled. 

 

Why is all that good for the Eels?

Because it shows he can lift a team that may not be the best all year. And it's likely the Eels won't surpass any of the top teams anytime soon. He will need to lift them when it counts. Something Arthur was unable to do with his 33% finals record. He explains by drawing an analogy with great Ali versus Foreman Rumble in the Jungle.

 

I'll make a boxing analogy. In 1974, in Zaire, Muhammad Ali got battered by George Foreman for seven rounds.

But that was his strategy and he timed it perfectly in the eighth  round. It was a great win of bravery, psychology, toughness and strategy.

I can't  remember anyone saying 'Ah, Ali is not the real champion because he didn't win the first seven rounds.'

At Leeds we want to win every single game – but we know which are the most important.

Brian McDermott [3]

 

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Madge is the olnly other candidate who has won a rugby league title of significance and relevance. And kudos for that. 

But he has not been in the finals series since 2015, and has a 55% finals record (57% in Super League) and last six years with Souths and the Tigers since have seen his teams poor in defence (11th-15th) despite his reputation as being a hard-nosed defensive coach.

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In comparison, Madge most recent six years defensively (11th-15th) is not much better than Barrett's record (11th-16th worst defence over 5 yrs) and arguably worse than Hannay's (8th-10th defence in his 2 yrs). 

At Souths, he went from a title-winning 1st in defence (2nd in attack) in 2014 to 11th placed with 11th-12th defence in two years, over 2016-2017, progressively declining much like at the Tigers.  

Souths had a decent roster in those poor years of 2016-17: Sam Burgess (27-28), Tom Burgess (25), George Burgess (25), Damien Cook (25), Cody Walker (27) Adam Reynolds (27yo), Dane Nielsen (31), Cambell Graham (18yo), Alex Johnson (22yo). Given Inglish (29-30yo, got injured in 2017), Angus Chrichton (21), Cameron Murray (19), Siosifa Talakai (20),  and Luke Keary (24, 2016 only) and Cameron McInnes (22, 2016 only). Should that be an 11th placed team with 11th-12th defence for two years straight?

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In a nutshell

If it’s down to Barbie-optics and ideologies for the brave new “Modernized Eels Brand” that will look great with the new, modern Centre of Excellence, along with good-feel themes of giving “young blokes a chance” the next hot, young thing - Ryles or Hannay - will triumph. Ken or Barbie it makes little difference. It will optically be a move away from the crusty old Arthurian ways. Symbolically. Trend following. Maybe, it'll pan out. Or maybe we'll get a highly-touted Kearney outside the Storm system or a Hagan without a Johns.

If it’s down to demonstrated evidence of competence for the best shot at success - especially where it matters in terms of defence, resilience and lifting a team - McDermott deserves a shot. His accent may count against him, and he'll need to be fast-tracked by high-quality NRL assistants. But he stands well above any of the named candidates. 

 

 

 

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  • Great read mate, thanks for all your work. I definitely agree with McDermott, has experience, tough, defence orientated, but can adapt, seems he will demand respect from players and the board

    • HOE the fundamental issues at the club all come down to the board .  You go through every member of both the football and leagues club boards and you will not find one single person who has anything that can benefit the club , they are bog average people and bog average buisness people who  don't have what it takes to have Parramatta on level terms with the top clubs when it comes to anything . 

       

      No doubt we need a new head of football to replace the fresh food dope but can you imagine who the dopes would actually hire ? We don't have a board who are equipped to know who to hire or who have the ability or bring the best of the best .

       

      Parramatta will always be behind the top clubs while we  have the current people running things .

      • Frankie,

        Your intention and idea is spot on. My issues are more pragmatic.

        I look at the power-players and boards at Souths, Roosters, Penrith, Storm, Cows, or even the Dogs and wonder why can't we have a bit of that on our footy board - passion, nous and clout, just a bit. They don't need to be in the multi-millionaire-billionaire club (it helps though). Is there anyone other than local diehard Sue Coleman on the PNRL board that is Parra through and through? She doesn't look like a mover and shaker though, or have anywhere near the artillery of the century plus hard-core diehards on the Panthers board. 

        Parra seems devoid of choices or serious business clout that want to get involved with the club. Or where are they hiding? I suppose we're not as bad as the Tigers. And then imagine us having a Brookvale Oval. We'd be lower down on that off-field success list. 

        Maybe, it's just demographics or something in the water at Parra. Dunno what's our problem.

        Other than reinstating a tired, probably past-it Fitzy (might not be possible), or a still-fighting Roy (who choose Kearney), or even bring back Gurr or Sterlo in decision-making roles - in desperation - I just don't know who else is around. Fitzy, for all his faults and stupidities, is a Parra man through and through.

        Who is out there that is ultra competent and wants to get involved with our club long-term? Who should we chase who is realistic? I don't see a Ponisini or Matt Cameron (promoted from GM to CEO at Panthers) who was with us for 15 years or whatever doing lesser tasks. Who? Parr? Even a Peter O'Sullivan would be helpful.

        Ultimately, a successful, good Parra is good for the game.

        If I'm McElduff or Sarantinos, I'm thinking "Houston we actually do have a Problem" and having a serious chat to someone like Gus and restructuring the board. I know you don't like him and he's on the nose for many, but the guy makes things happen and has a strong network. I think we need someone like him to run the big-picture ship at the Eels - even at Chairman or CEO level. Pathways in particular and clean out the joint or garbage, head to toe. Change the culture. I like what he and Ciraldo are building at the Dogs. They cleaned up the joint of people who weren't buying into the programme and not for the benefit of the club. 

        But we don't have a Gus and we're not the Dogs. The Dogs also have clever business and players behind them. And a Dogs Of War identity - a resilience say - that is embedded into their DNA and in their four walls. We laughed at them years ago, but they may have the final laugh soon.

        What's our identity? The Gibson-Massay-Fitzy-Overton years? Commank? Parradise? Our mainly-frustrated, part-unicornian fanatic fan base? The arid desert of the longest premiership drought?

        Where do we start and stop? Is there something wrong with the PLC? With the deep-rooted culture at our club? Is it still paralyzed by dysfunctional politics but in a more hidden fashion than the warring factional years that were beyond a joke? There seems to be a lot of communication and internal issues at our club overall. A lot of shoelaces tied together, and the left leg not knowing what the right leg is doing. And if my suspicions are even remotely true, how do you change that? What's the best we could hope for?

        These are too many questions I don't know the answer to. If you have the pragmatic answers, I'm all ears.

        Considering all that, at least we're not completely stuffing up all the off-field stuff. We shouldn't be with all our inherent resources like the club, Commbank and investments - but we have in the past, badly, and not long ago.

         

        PS: I have a lot of respect for you. You're intelligent, want high standards, evolve, and are successful in business (no easy feat, 98-99% fail in time), and witty. You'd be good on our footy board to be honest. Probably wasted on the PLC.

    • Thanks, Bear. Yeah, I agree. There's more to McDermott than meets the eye.

      Definitely, there's an adaptive side to him, a subtle creativity marked by resilience and under-fire confidence. But he also knows when to keep the powder dry when.

      He was shaped by his combat marine years,and rich life experiences, but he's so much more than a tough hard-arsed jar head.

       

  • This is why we need someone who can attract talent from elsewhere. There is no denying we need to bring in some younger players but the off contract list for NRL next year looks very lean. The off contract list for 2026 has a lot more depth but we cant go into next year without making changes. 

    This is where I think McDermott could add the most value for next season with his ESL connections.  

    Other than that, we need to start blooding our most promising juniors or raiding other teams nurseries for the best up and comers to start grooming them for NRL next season. 

     

  • Brilliant read, HOE.

    I am hoping the powerbroker's of the club do scan this site occasionally, because your posts always clearly breakdown fact from fiction with stats and information that is not merely an opinion piece. If they read your black and white take on BA's shortfalls and why timed had to be called on his tenure, they would be well advised to examine your take on the coaching candidates. 

    • Bert de Naturál✌️™  good to hear from you Bert. Hope you are well mate and the Brazilian weather 🌦️ is going well

    • Thanks Bert. That's too kind of you mate.

      We're in exciting times and dangerous times.

      Ultimately, we needed to divorce BA, even if it was in part an arse saving frustration from the board (probably McElduff driven). 

      If the board truly believe their public spiel - all we need is a coaching change to win a premiership - and especially if they go rookie-route we could see some awful things in 12-24 months unless our highly-touted juniors come through in spectacular style.

      I'm not sure McDermott (or even a Bennett) could win us a premiership in the next few years (probably not),. But they'll be a hell of a lot better for us than Ryles or Hannay who are still learning their trade.

       

      It's great to see you posting, mate. I hope all's well on your end.

  • A sensational Blog HOE. A great read. You know im a Marine McDermott fan, And he is heads and shoulders above the other candidates in the race for the Eels job. I am wondering now if he got an interview. I know the club and members of the boards check in from time to time to 1EE. We need to send a clear message from fans what we think about the candidates and this blog goes along way to helping in that department.

    McDermott is our man.  He looks at home in Blue and Gold too.

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