In 2023, we signed a lad from Penrith named J'maine Hopgood with the intent of him being a diamond in the rough of the Penrith system. It proved to be a good call.
Coming in to replace the middles that left the year prior. Hopgood got the start at Lock in Round 1, playing full 80mins plus golden point in only his 10th NRL game. He handled his own and showed the makings of a future cult hero. He had times where his body was still getting used to full time FG, he was added to the bench then added back to starting Lock position, getting better and better each week.
He demonstrated strong running, quality work rate and offloads. He was able to get 2-3 into a tackle then release an offload, collapsing the ruck and creating mismatched outwide. 56 offloads in 2023, with Origin selection in sight for the future and a leader in the middle.
Then 2024 comes and Hopgood starts off well, scoring a nice try in Round 2 v Penrith. He gets Queensland Origin selection in game 1 and gets manhandled in tackle, resulting in damage to nerves in his back that required surgery ending his 2024 season. It turned into a momentum stop for Hopgood in his career — a turning point.
Fast forward to 2025, Hopgood becomes part of the leadership group and extends til 2027. Though on the field he has been and is still a shell of himself. Going from playing 72 mins in the shellacking by Melbourne in Round 1, to now averaging 47 mins per game. For a starting middle it seems sort of the norm but at Lock he is averaging less minutes than Paulo and Williams. To now getting placed on the bench being the 2nd in the rotation after Tuivaiti. His minutes are getting lower, his stats are limiting and today he went to a simple role of just playing as a Prop type role only managing 7 runs for 49 metres. He has gone from 123m in 2023 to 116m in 2024 to now 72m average. Offloads have dropped from 56 to 21 and now 14. Defensively he has been pretty good to be fair with his stats staying similar, however when playing less mintues than year prior he has less time to make defensive errors which lowers his stats but still great overall.
The question i have overall is what is the future for Hopgood?
He was signed til 2027 when Ryles arrived, added to the leadership group, yet his role seems to be deminishing as the season goes with Walker being the preferred starting Lock.
Ever since his lone Origin appearance he has not been the same since. He is declining in this system and is regressing, not leading by example. One thing on Hopgood's side is age he is 26 this year, plenty of time to change things. Though it is concerning the trajectory at the moment. Ryles has seemed to have improved players this year, though Hopgood has not. Now not saying to move him on ashe could come good but confidence is so low it is going to take time to get back to close to his 2023 form.
Will Ryles look elsewhere and move Hopgood on? Very unlikely for 2026, but 2027? Maybe as we have some forward coming through who could take the job off him. Does Ryles make him a Prop and a simplified type of player? Does Ryles just keep him as a bench rotational player? But then again it seems we may have enough of them with Moretti and Tuivaiti being the bench middles with Walker and Da Silva the bench also.
Let's say we decide to try and shop Hopgood, not saying that happens just hypothetical, would he gather a fair bit of interest? I think he would. Not saying that happens nor the club should do that but is what he does offer in terms of value to other clubs.
If Hopgood is in the plans of Ryles he needs to pick-up quick as it could be the patience of Ryles is wearing thin for Hopgood.
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While watching that game I could think of no reason why he was selected for Qld.
I think a big contributor to his drop in form this year was his back injury. He got next to no pre-season because of it, and then has played virtually every match this season. You only need to be a couple percent off in the NRL to be out of form and you can't downplay the lack of a pre-season for a guy still in the early parts of his career.
Great blog, LB. Great comments from many.
Nothing to do with BA's departure or Ryles' arrival.
Hoppy wouldn't be in the leadership group if it was so (Dylan never was even before the Knights decision). It shows faith & respect for Hoppy. Also, Rylsey has shown little hesitation in ripping off bandaids.
Like Mutts, Darren Munro, Super, Pops, RB suggest — it's probably back-injury related (important area), which affects his explosiveness and power, thus headspace.
You can see Hoppy visibily frustrated at times. If the body ain't doing what the head wants anymore, that could be why.
The G-forces are off the chart in NRL. Literally, as the the NRL brain doctor, Gardner, showed testing a game in 2019. It doesn't take much, just slightly off, to have a major impact.
Considering Ryles is all about leg speed and mobility, that all poses a potential dilemma and misfit in part — especially if there is some permanent damage to nerves or whatever in his lower back, even if minor. But Hoppy fits Ryles' culture — The Zaizen Way. Without airs and graces.
Time will tell though if this current version of Hoppy is the new baseline or thereabouts.
Not sure what's the schedule for a full recovery for his type of injury: 12-18 months? It happened mid-2024. So, by the end of this year or early next year, we'll get an idea. Dunno, really.
When I recovered from Bels Palsy a few years back, it took about 3-4 months for full nerve rebuild & recovery. But there is some minor — probably permanent nerve damage. People don't see it, even my wife doesn't, but I feel it and know it's there. The body doing something the mind doesn't want affects your headspace.
Hoppy's body is also naturally evolving — with progressively declining fast-twitch fibres (power) over time from 25 (he's 27 next May), while increasing bone density and muscle strength. The back could compromise that though.
He's all class, Origin-class, so hopefully he gets back to his optimal peak physically and mentally even if he may not be that 70-80 minute a game guy. I love Hoppy. We're a better team and a better club with him.
Just my two cents. Could be dead wrong.
I feel with him now moving to the bench, minutes getting limited the only reason he is in the team at this point is based around defence. If he can get through the year unscathed he can recover and get ready in November. I think he deserves a chance in 2026 but if his back injury just keeps limiting him then we need to have serious think about him moving forward and where he fits in the plans moving forward. We have young Samuel Polley who is only 17 but come 2028 he will be looking at FG, could he be the Hopgood replacement in the future? Do we use De Belin as 13 for next few years? Is Walker the starter for next few years?
2023 Hopgood would be great but since early 2024 he has not been the same, the injury and doing it in Origin has effected him.
I mean similar to Shaun Lane in 2024, he has three bad injuries in 2023 and 2024 he was just so low in form and confidence and it seaped into 2025. Not saying it will be same for Hopgood but mentally he looks frustrated as well.
With Kautoga out need to move Williams to the edge and hopgood can start at prop. Not sure why Ryles is holding off on that move. Walker and Dylan can look after lock and maybe matto when back.
I NEVER rated him. Never understood the hype. Over rated.
Eels player they snagged as a reject from a decent club , playing like an Eels player they snagged as a reject from a decent club .
1EE brethren - " He must be playing injured "
the reality is like it or not , Arthur for all his coaching flaws , used to have a nack of getting some pretty ordinary players to play above their weight .
Maybe we are seeing the Hopgood that the Panthers knew was always going to be. We've seen it with Nathan Brown , we've seen it with Shaun Lane , we saw it with Ice Papali , Matto , etc ... is it really a shock that yet another one seems to be traveling the exact same journey ?
Not the same player since he was folded in half during Origin last year. Having had a herniated disc myself, I was pretty much on my back with ice packs for two months. If he's had the wrong treatment, this could contribute to why it's not getting better. I was lucky in that I sought alternatives to going under the knife.
He needs to sort out his back problems and seek alternative advice as what he is getting isn't working.
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