In 2023, we signed a lad from Penrith named J'maine Hopgood with the intent of him being a diamond in the rough of the Penrith system. It proved to be a good call.
Coming in to replace the middles that left the year prior. Hopgood got the start at Lock in Round 1, playing full 80mins plus golden point in only his 10th NRL game. He handled his own and showed the makings of a future cult hero. He had times where his body was still getting used to full time FG, he was added to the bench then added back to starting Lock position, getting better and better each week.
He demonstrated strong running, quality work rate and offloads. He was able to get 2-3 into a tackle then release an offload, collapsing the ruck and creating mismatched outwide. 56 offloads in 2023, with Origin selection in sight for the future and a leader in the middle.
Then 2024 comes and Hopgood starts off well, scoring a nice try in Round 2 v Penrith. He gets Queensland Origin selection in game 1 and gets manhandled in tackle, resulting in damage to nerves in his back that required surgery ending his 2024 season. It turned into a momentum stop for Hopgood in his career — a turning point.
Fast forward to 2025, Hopgood becomes part of the leadership group and extends til 2027. Though on the field he has been and is still a shell of himself. Going from playing 72 mins in the shellacking by Melbourne in Round 1, to now averaging 47 mins per game. For a starting middle it seems sort of the norm but at Lock he is averaging less minutes than Paulo and Williams. To now getting placed on the bench being the 2nd in the rotation after Tuivaiti. His minutes are getting lower, his stats are limiting and today he went to a simple role of just playing as a Prop type role only managing 7 runs for 49 metres. He has gone from 123m in 2023 to 116m in 2024 to now 72m average. Offloads have dropped from 56 to 21 and now 14. Defensively he has been pretty good to be fair with his stats staying similar, however when playing less mintues than year prior he has less time to make defensive errors which lowers his stats but still great overall.
The question i have overall is what is the future for Hopgood?
He was signed til 2027 when Ryles arrived, added to the leadership group, yet his role seems to be deminishing as the season goes with Walker being the preferred starting Lock.
Ever since his lone Origin appearance he has not been the same since. He is declining in this system and is regressing, not leading by example. One thing on Hopgood's side is age he is 26 this year, plenty of time to change things. Though it is concerning the trajectory at the moment. Ryles has seemed to have improved players this year, though Hopgood has not. Now not saying to move him on ashe could come good but confidence is so low it is going to take time to get back to close to his 2023 form.
Will Ryles look elsewhere and move Hopgood on? Very unlikely for 2026, but 2027? Maybe as we have some forward coming through who could take the job off him. Does Ryles make him a Prop and a simplified type of player? Does Ryles just keep him as a bench rotational player? But then again it seems we may have enough of them with Moretti and Tuivaiti being the bench middles with Walker and Da Silva the bench also.
Let's say we decide to try and shop Hopgood, not saying that happens just hypothetical, would he gather a fair bit of interest? I think he would. Not saying that happens nor the club should do that but is what he does offer in terms of value to other clubs.
If Hopgood is in the plans of Ryles he needs to pick-up quick as it could be the patience of Ryles is wearing thin for Hopgood.
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Interesting take on Hopgood there LB.
Apart from handling errors, i thought he had been going fine. This year he is supposedly on $320K of the salary cap, and is playing every week. I'm more concerned about say Matterson on $650k or Paulo on $950k, or Cartwright on $450k, or lane on $650k.
Hopgood tackles himself to a standstill with a tackle efficency near 95%. I think this year with the lack of creative halves he has been trying too hard to make something happen as a ball playing forward.
'Billy Slater must see something as well because he was in the extended origin camp again this year for Q'land as cover.
This year it appears his role has changed especially with Dylan Walker joining the team and a real lack of talented props at our disposal. Having played 50 NRL games now, I think he is going fine, in a team that has struggled all year and has rookies all over the place or NSW Cup talent playing regular first grade, he is now a senior member. I think the senior part is very unfair on him at 50 games he is still learning himself and should be afforded that.
Agree with all of this Blue Eel. Except his biggest issue at the moment is he gives away too many penalties.
Yeah that's true as well Acme. Good point.
It seems his role has changed as the season has gone on. Ryles looks to be losing patience.
I was surprised to see him selected for QLD. One person said to me Slater is just bring different people into camp from past for more experience etc. Issue there is let's say on the Monday before Origin, Cotter went down, Slater would have to play Hopgood in his squad. You don't just name a player in 20 man squad with no chance in hell of them playing. So in Slater's eyes he earned it.
He is on a small amount this year as that was his contract pre Origin selection. Next year and 2027 he will be one a decent amount. He is still young thankfully but he needs a great game badly.
yeah i'm not sure LB on what his salary moves too moving forward.
He needs a great game , that's for sure. I sort of feel though that we all expect him to be a seasoned pro, when in reality he has been playing at a club that has been in contention for the wooden spoon for the 2 years he has been here, and trying to learn his position still.
If he was to lose those errors in his game ie handling errors and silly offside / not square penalties would we consider him to still be playing poor.
'I'm seeing a bloke that is in two minds every time he gets the ball. ie am i running straight and hard and bending them back, am i looking for an offload, or am i attempting to ball play and create something for my outside.
I think an off season where all our new players get some time without pressure to develop together and forge combinations and expectations and we may see a different Hopgood. I really still don't know what role he is supposed to be playing. In the Penrith system he knew exactly what his job was with no confusion. Our ad hoc changing systems with constant changing halves dummy half and rookie players around him, cannot be good for consistency.
Id love to see him firing on all 8 cylinders.
Good point about what role he is meant to be playing. Walker is the type of Lock Ryles wants and wants him playing big minutes though Hopgood is a Lock aswell. Does a move to the edge or being an out and out Prop assist his confidence. Just run, make metres and make your tackles. If you have an arm free then give an offload.
Ryles yesterday seemed to have simplified it for him as he played some Prop but he just replaced Walker.
It won't happen but with Williams perhaps moving to the edge for Kautoga I would consider Hopgood at Prop.
Defensively he's still got it which shows he's putting in the effort.
I'm struggling to find an answer on why he's making so many errors though, he was so reliable in 23/24
It could all be between the ears for Hopgood. Either that or he's playing injured. The reason it could be psychological is he's making too many fundamental errors. Off side from kicks, not square at marker etc. Seems odd for a guy many considered a future Captain.
Physically his leg speed has diminished noticeably. In 2023 his hit up were at full tilt, hence his ability to offload. He would go from 0-100 in a few steps. Now his hit ups are fairly standard. Which makes me think it's some physical issue.
Either way, his form is a big concern.
I thinked you have summed that up pretty well Mutts.
Ive heard he's been dealing with pretty bad back pain for a year now. On pain killers every game
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