Is there validity to consider a "critical'' stat to when assessing how a team has performed? --maybe call it luck or bad luck indicators
We often see a forward pass or missed indiscretion, a referee/ bunker error, a disallowed try where inches are involved, dropped ball over the line etc. which has had a major impact on the final scoreline. We often don,t give enough credit to these very minor luck? incidences which may give a distorted view on how a team is performing. .I accept there may be a lot of bias with interpretation in formulating these types of stats but I would suggest there is some bias with interpreting the normal stats as well. I think we maybe need to consider "Critical" stats such as these to give a better indication of how a team has performed. It may also be a good stat to have to target coaching efforts to eliminate those minor errors which have a huge impact on final score lines
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No Tad. The better a team goes the more 'luck' will follow them. The bounce of the ball seems to go their way because they usually put more effort in. Decisions go their way because refs respect them more.
Only a few years ago we were getting shafted game after game cause that's what shitty teams get
Al .I accept the term good teams make their own luck. Consider our game against Penrith. We lost by one point and many here were writing us off. Hec we only lost by one point.. Now if we had the opportunity to review the game for both sides and put a weighting on lost opportunities with significant scoring chance lost through very minor but significant score changing opportunities based around luck and poor ref calls etc how would game competitiveness look if luck was built into assessing performance.I can accept teams can have an above-average or below-average game but over a range of games could you assess how good a team you have. Sometimes scoreboards don,t tell the full underlying story about the competitive capacity
If we won that Penrith game with a bit of luck? with the Moses kick we may be having a different feel about our side if the general close missed or luck opportunity scores were similar with Penrith..Maybe what I am thinking about is irrelevant but I think the "if only,s " could give a different perspective for optimism or grievance. about team potential
Many on here have written us off because our premiership drought have made Eels supporters the most fickle and in the comp. Many expect to lose so they pick every game apart instead of looking at it as a season.
Scoreboard don't lie Tad, we're not far from the top. If we have a weakness we don't adjust as well as we should. When the crackdown on headhighs came in on tragic week we lost the following 2 games because our forwards were passive.
The Storm probably wins the comp but I think we might be the only team that can knock them off
I have a point of view on this which relates to a reliability factor.
I like to look at betting stats and in particular how often a team covers the line - I think it's a good guide to their consistency and reliability of a team.
I'll post the stats for 2021 but you might be surprised to know Parra are ranked second only slightly behind Melbourne
to me this speaks to our reliability to play good footy week in week out.
At the bottom of my reliability table are sides likevTigers, Brisbane, Roosters, Titans and Canberra who are not so reliable in 2021 to perform the way you'd expect them to.
last nights result (where the pre game line was a crazy +4.5 pts for Parra) made it 14 from 17 games where Parra have covered the line - we might not win every game but we are a more reliable team in 2021 and I think this is a great stat to back that up
Yeah our premiership odds actually went backwards last night. We started the game at $11.50, by the end of the game we had eased out to $12.
Pretty juicy for a team comfortably in the top 4.
And to further your point about consistency, the last time the Eels finished a round outside the top 8 was round 25, 2018 !!!
Brett I think the storm will win the comp - Oenrith have the odd Clanger in them and Melb simply never beat themselves
mill post later today a few thoughts on this reliability theme - you can knock BA for a lot of things but I think it's undeniable we are improving our consistency year on year
i see Parra in a gf qualifier this year with a decent shit at a gf the way the table will prob unfold
As it stands right now you're probably right, but a lot can change over the next 3 months.
There's an old saying Tad, you cant control the uncontrollable...... just like climate change Lol