I'll preface this with some parts are definitely controversial, and pessimisitc, I expect & welcome some heat on it.
One individual is very rarely responsible for a team ultimately winning or losing.
Of course, individuals influence results, and games are won or lost in clutch moments.
Are clutch moments really just the tip of an iceberg made of hundreds of variables, or sliding doors, that lead a team to that point in the first place, though?
I'll get to the point.
Does missing Mitch Moses decrease the Eels chance of winning football games?
Of course, he is our general, and he is one the Eels turn too in those clutch moments mentioned above.
As HOE pointed out, without Mitch, our win percentage drops from 62.2% to 36.5%, after all.
But, does missing Moses increase our chances of a ‘cliff drop’ performance like Sunday night in Canberra? Does his replacement?
Evidence would suggest, he / they don’t.
Missing Moses, and the Eels back up halfback plan, is likely going to give Eels HQ another mask, another excuse, but it was unlikely to ultimatey change the result.
RECENT 'MOSES' HISTORY
As you can see, with or without Moses, we ultimately return to this part of the circle at some point, every year, at least once.
Why the Eels cannot remain focused, committed, resilient for long periods each season, we all have our theories.
What we do know is that the best indication of a teams mental fortitude, culture, spirit, belief in themselves, peers, coach, systems, can often be found in…
DEFENCE
The Eels are currently riding a 13-game wave as a bottom four side defensively.
Only the Bulldogs, Tigers & Titans have been worse defensively over the last 13 weeks of NRL.
Before we were screaming for a genuine back up halfback, or outside backs, or for BA’s head (actually probably not before that one), we were all screaming for improvements defensively.
Without them, the rest is irrelevant.
In 2022, the Eels made a Grand Final with the 8th best defence.
What defensive KPI’s were set for Brad & the team after 2022’s Grand Final loss?
We finished 12th defensively in 2023, and currently sit 12th defensively in 2024, and as explained, are a genuine chance of becoming the 2nd worst defence over a 14 week period after Saturday night.
ITS HEATING UP ON EELS HQ
As fans, we never want to see our team lose. Ever. Its not within our DNA.
However, the media furnace burning under the Eels is rising, and while a win would be fantastic, it will take the heat off the team, coach & club, and leave us anxiously awaiting the next time we travel through to this part of our inevitable circle?
For Parramatta to act, to change, it appears they will need to completely self combust, and what could rise from those ashes is a phoenix named ‘Wayne’ - which is a very Aussie name for a mythical bird who represents rebirth.
I know Bennett has rubbished this rumour, but he’s shifty, and if there is any truth to the narrative, it could leave us Eels fans, just the tiniest bit, torn.
While we never want a loss, not now, not ever, above all, don’t we want a Premiership, to be contending for one, or at minimum, improving in the vital areas needed to contend for one?
Are we all growing tired of repeating this cycle?
We don’t know if Wayne Bennett could win us that elusive trophy, we do know that we cannot contend with a bottom four defence. Ever.
What are your thoughts Eels fans?
In hope of softening some of the retaliation to this last part, here are the Manly cheer leaders.
Replies
Brilliant NOS. Completely agree. In the Arthur era, with or without Moses, our defence can implode on any given week. We struggle to perform for a few consecutive weeks. Our defence, intensity and fundamentals follow whether we are switched "on" or "off".
That's our DNA. Who we are. We are Sybil. It's a symptom of deeper cultural causes; habit patterns. I wish I had a dollar for every time that was mentioned.
It just gets far worse, dire nowadays, without Moses. Dylan is 1 from 4 (25%) when he plays halfback.
Just one minor note. On that R16, 2023 win at home against Manly. It was the only win at home without Moses since R4, 2023 (because we lost every time without Moses at home since R4, 2023). But, in that game when we played Asi/ Matto in the halves, Manly was missing the likes of Turbo, Jurbo, and DCE and was playing Jakob Arthur (at 7) and Schuster (at 6) in the halves. It was a fairer contest for us you could say.
Since the Smith era and you could argue even in his era, we always had this ability to crack or turn off. We were just more consistent under Smith and could perform for longer periods. Under Smith, 60% of wins resulted in a week the following week. Under Arthur, it drops to 50%: a coin toss.
Thanks HOE, as always, too kind & great points.
To me and many others we posted about the absolute importance of fixing our defence in the offseason. Even if we didn't touch a ball the whole off season our defence had to be in tip top shape.
As you said, we absolutely cannot contend witha bottom 4 defence. I made a post in the offseason our defence conceded around 23ppg last year when Penrith conceded under 13. We were going to be in trouble if BA believed what he was publicly saying about a few things not going our way and us only being 1 win from the finals. our defence had gone backwards even from 2022 when we somehow made the GF with the 7th best defence which no other side has done.
...I think that 'somehow' is Moses whose kicking game gets us out of bad situations in games and really controls where we give other teams that ball.. without him that can quickly go to shit.
Once again this year we are conceding 23 ppg and are a bottom defensive team.. exactly as we were last year. To me that says BA cant answer the problem and should be enough to get him fired if nothing else. We've had continuity issues like last year but the system just doesn't hold up.. it fails when we have our best 17 out there but it really isn't strong enough to cope with a couple of disruptions. Guys arent on the same page, our spacing is never consistent ... guys don't communicate and worked together and in some cases these are guys that have played together a number of years. Our edge defence is diabolical , somewhat because of a complete lack of athleticism in our outside backs which not only hurts us in attack but even moreso in defence . He hasn't fixed it. Sivo has been plodding around for 18 months unable to sprint more than 5 metres , Russell is about as vanilla as you will ever see in an NRL outside back and the others lack consistency. End of the day im not sure ALL the recuitment and retention decisions fall on BA but the defensive systems do and they don't hold up. He has the luxury of a 1 regarded as one of the best defensive fullbacks in the game, a 6 who IS the best defensive half in the game and Moses who has turned himself into a very capable defender... but still it doesn;t hold up. We're wasting having a top 4 or 5 roster with a bottom 4 or 5 defence year on year and he should be turfed for that if nothing else.
Snottie, I’m with you. Good post & thanks for reading.
Well done, great blog.
It's plain for all to see yet the powers that be at the eels prefer to sit on their hands and hope for another upward trend, as fleeting as that will be. Close enough is good enough for the ultra conservative administration of our club, the fear of making a decision and maybe getting it wrong is usually what holds greatness back.
I fear we will continue along this same path that is a circle as long as this administration is in place, sigh, I'm almost ready to give up.
Worse than a pack of young liberals
I'll take that saddle back now!
Thanks HKF, that is my fear also.
Geographically, the Eels may not be Waynes first choice, but the Eels have a carrot to dangle that could very much appeal to him, his ego (not a bad thing).
I just worry that while the Eels argue internally about outlaying the cost of a carrot & its impact on annual financial reports, another club will swoop.
Then give up.
Outstanding work but you could be making too much sense for some .
Dylan Brown obviously has a lot of talent and he has been in first a long time yet he still has not displayed his full potential , he shows drips and drabs.
If Dylan Brown had a proper coach how far advanced would he be today compared to were he is at ? Ezra Man has had half the time in first grade yet look how he plays ? Look how he handled finals footy and the grand final ?
Anyone who thinks Ezra coming into first grade under Walters has not played a huge role in his development is a flop
Look who poor DB has had to work with ? A coach who coaches using the group 6 bush coaching manual.
Who knows how far this team would of got had they had a proper coach .
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