The most pleasing aspect of this year amid a bold rebuild has been the improvement in the Eels' defence — a barometer of attitude — after four years of decline post-2020 (4th, 8th, 11th, 16th, to 10th defence rank this year). Kaizen in motion. The late-season surge was also a glimpse of what the Eels could be. A genuine turning point? Hopefully. I'm rooting for it. It's worth noting the cap won't be cleared up until 2027 with a significant war chest. If the improvement continues, it'll help encourage more players to come aboard.
A Brief SWOT Analysis
Strengths
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Coaching alignment: Unity between coach, CEO, GM, and board, giving Jason Ryles stability and space to implement long-term strategies. There is a promising Club-First, Team-First ethos building.
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Defensive turnaround: From worst in the NRL over first six weeks to top-3 defence in the final seven-game stretch. Evidence of buy-in.
Nightmare start 1/ 6 (17%), rock bottom 17th last on ladder Attack second-worst (13.4pg), Defence worst, 17th (30.4pg) during this period Crawling out of hole 4 / 12 (33%), up one place 16th Attack 10th (21.3pg), Defence 11th (23.6pg) Blazing Finish 5 / 7 (71%), finish at 11th, highest of season Attack 7th, 27pg, Defence 3rd, 16.6pg -
Momentum builder: Ended with a 5 from 7 wins, including 3 wins from 4 against top-eight teams — a sign they can match intensity at the pointy end.
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Competitiveness against best: Against the teams in the top-eight. Rounds 1-20 won 0 from 8. Rounds 21-27 won 3 from 4.
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Rookies and most stepping up: Iongi, Smith, Papali’i, Kautoga, Tuivaiti, and even Russell providing impact for his best season to date; Paulo logging career-high minutes in a renassaince year; Williams' a career year; Walker proving the missing link in the middle
- Ryles' recruitment strategies: Has a scent for the right fit and attitude. Fox, Walker, Iongi, Williams, Kautoga, Papali'i, Hawkins proving good recruits.
- Back Three: Lomax, Fox, Iongi have been outstanding. Lomax is a Payne Haas on the wing. Helps relieve stress on pack.
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Improved culture: Younger, fitter, faster roster playing with visible resilience and cohesion. Leadership from Moses, Paulo, Walker, the Fox, and Williams.
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Systems: attacking and defensive structures showing improvement and promise
Weaknesses
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Ball control and errors: 13th in completions (79%) and 4th worst for errors (~12 per game). Has cost winnable matches.
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Reliance on Moses: Win rate drops from 54% with him to 27% without. His kicking game is critical. 2026-2027 could hinge on his injury status.
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Spine still evolving: Five-eighth role remains unresolved; a young spine still developing
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Right-edge defence: Still the softest corridor; heavily targeted.
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Overworking stars: Paulo’s heavy minutes and Lomax’s forced involvement (via premeditated kicks) risk burnout and inefficiency, and some lost opportunities.
Opportunities
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Targeted recruitment: Punch in the middle and more strike out wide (centre) could elevate attack. A more established six?
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Kaizen continuity: Another preseason under Ryles should help cohesion, combinations and sharpen execution.
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Pathways and development: Shows promise and renewed investment. Translation into first-grade will be critical for sustainable success.
- MOMAX: could be used with more variation. Sometimes pre-determined last-tackle kick for Lomax has resulted in lost opportunities.
Threats
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Second-year syndrome: Young squad may regress in intensity and consistency after the adrenaline of a late-season surge.
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Salary cap squeeze: Clean-up job in 2025–26 leaves limited flexibility until 2027; risks stagnation if injuries strike and depth challenged.
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Roster succession gaps: Key veterans (Paulo, JDB, Walker, Fox) nearing the back end of careers.
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Competition benchmark: Rivals like Panthers and Storm combine talent with calm-headed leadership (Cleary, Yeo, Grant). We're still a work in progress.
Quirky Stat
- The Eels have finished the season with three-straight wins for only the third time in the Eels' NRL history: 2001 (grand final), 2022 (grand final), and 2025.
Quick comparison with Dogs rebuild
- It took their rebuild three years to get to the finals once Gus took over mid-2021 as the architect. They were in doldrums missing the finals five times 2017-2021 (11th-16th wooden spoon).
- 1st Year (2022): 16th ➝ 12th improvement from spoon after leaking 710 points in 2021 (Barrett)
- 2nd Year (2023): 12th ➝ 15th regression to third-last (Ciraldo's first year)
- 3rd Year (2024): 15th ➝ 6th Finals, first time in eight years since 2016
- 4th Year (2025): 6th ➝ 3rd Finals, top-four, for first time in thirteen years since 2012
Replies
My point is that possibly every team is up and down through the year. Look at the Storm this season as an example. They averaged 28 ppg for and 19 ppg against. But they conceded 40 points twice this year, and 30 points three times. They conceded six or fewer points three times. In attack they scored 40+ four times and scored fewer than 20 points six times.
Yet they are the premiership favourites. Being up and down is meaningless. Usually you have a blinder because the opposition doesn't turn up. It shouldn't mean that is now your benchmark, because most weeks the opposition will turn up and then your imaginary benchmark looks silly. Likewise, even the Storm fail to turn up sometimes. They lost to three teams that missed the finals. Yet they are still the favourites to win the comp.
People like Moses don't even think about this sort of thing, because it's not information that's going to help him improve. He needs to focus on what he can control, so he will mutter about being 'up and down' as though it's something he can change. But if the Storm can't change it, how can any lesser team hope to?
Well signing those unfashionable players (big forwards and small backs) was likely how we were able to build a team capable of making the grand final. Buying the same types of players as everyone else (mobile forwards and powerful backs) means you will end up in bidding wars with everyone else, and have to overpay for your players. That's not the way to fit a lot of talent under your cap unless you have ways to pay them outside it.
Pou,
Most analysts I've heard talk about how critical defence is even if there's a lot to it.
Our fragile edge defence during the BA era was frustrating. Predictable. Matt Elliott did a full video breakdown of our vulnerabilities way back in 2019-20. It was a consistent theme in the era. The PLV increased speed of the game was the beginning of the end for BA's strategies along with an aging roster that lost its way and fell increasingly behind regressing defensively year on year.
I dug into this a few years ago. Since 2006, every grand final winner had a top-two defence, except two. The 2015 Cowboys (5th) and 2016 Sharks (3rd). The 2001 Knights and 2005 Tigers flash in the pans were the biggest defensive outliers in the game's history, but even they had top 1–2 attack and defence stats from around mid-year. I doubt the Panthers' dynasty exists without their premier defence.
Sure defence is important but you're talking as though it's as simple as saying "Oh well, I'm going to focus on defence." Having the best defence is a matter of having the best defensive players. That's all.
Fifteen clubs didn't have a top two defence this year. That number (15) was the same last year. It will be the same next year. You think 15 coaches don't understand the importance of defence?
Please if your going to state facts stop cherry picking what I've said and pretend think that's my opinion.I've always mentioned for any coach to succeed here I've said it's above and around him that any headcoach here is the key to there success.
Ive been more scathing of MoN firstly and the inexperience of Jim Sean and co at building a club that is resilient and good enough not just to win a premiership but be more than just that.
Ive called for more experience in and around that area first and foremost because I believe that's where we are deficient.
Panthers to win it all even though it's a tall order.
I mean they've come from dead last on the table to make a major semi that alone tells me how strong they are as a club.
Isaaih Papali'i and Paul Alamoti quietly are 2 guys that are coming good at the right time for them.Always liked ICE he's a hell of a player on the edge or in the middle,he's doing the latter now but he's added punch and sniffs try's when they matter.
The secret sauce to JRs success is his juniors and recruited taking the next step that's going to be the key.
From what I'm seeing from our youngsters are good players but not elite talent.I look at a guy like Russell whose improvement has been consistent but he'll never be a player teams fear.
I look at Casey Maclean in comparison as light years better talent wise and in a system where he can thrive and that's key with us the growth within JRs system can for go the talent difference.
PS Line 1 We need to beat Tigers, Newcastle, Titans, Dolphins, St George on every occasion, if we play them twice there's 20 points.....
Line 2 We need to beat Cronulla, Dogs, Warriors, Roosters, Cowboys, Bronco's, Panthers, Storm, Manly, Souths,
Beat them once each and you have another 20 points.
That should get us top 4, but we have to play by picking off every side one at a time! Not by looking at a broad picture.
I also think we may have an "opportunity" with depth, we can look at a rotation principle for some of our forwards.
At stages we will have to rest Junior, JDB, Smith and Tavititi, maybe also Lomax, pending his rep commitments and also a couple of middles that will end up with "niggles".
Of course the normal injury attrition will raise its head all over this process,
imteresting Blog in the sense of setting a scene of what we have to do and also what we need to avoid.
Threats..... are interesting and my greatest concern is 2nd Year syndrome......absolutely essential we get away to a good start but more importantly I know we will be a threat against the good sides ......the games we need to nail will be regarded as fringe sides but no one will really be an easybeat.
Other sides this year will look at us very carefully because they know we can rise to any occasion. The danger becomes that games against the so called fringe sides will be looked at by them as still a game they can win! It will be up to us to actually have these side's scared at the prospect of playing us, rather than "this is a side we can beat"!.
What are you rambling on about now old man?? Next.
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