Reversing Four Years of Regression

The most pleasing aspect of this year amid a bold rebuild has been the improvement in the Eels' defence — a barometer of attitude — after four years of decline post-2020 (3rd, 4th, 8th, 11th, 16th). Kaizen in motion. The late-season surge was also a glimpse of what the Eels could be. A genuine turning point? Hopefully. I'm rooting for it. It's worth noting the cap won't be cleared up until 2027 with a significant war chest. If the improvement continues, it'll help encourage more players to come aboard.

A Brief SWOT Analysis

Strengths

Coaching alignment: Unity between coach, CEO, GM, and board, giving Jason Ryles stability and space to implement long-term strategies. There is a promising Club-First, Team-First ethos building.

Defensive turnaround: From worst in the NRL over first six weeks to top-3 defence in the final seven-game stretch. Evidence of buy-in.

Nightmare start	1/ 6 (17%), rock bottom 17th last on ladder	Attack second-worst (13.4pg), Defence worst, 17th (30.4pg) during this period
Crawling out of hole	4 / 12 (33%), up one place 16th	Attack 10th (21.3pg), Defence 11th (23.6pg)
Blazing Finish	5 / 7 (71%), finish at 11th, highest of season	Attack 7th, 27pg, Defence 3rd, 16.6pg

Momentum builder: Ended with a 5 from 7 wins, including 3 wins from 4 against top-eight teams — a sign they can match intensity at the pointy end.
Competitiveness against best: Against the teams in the top-eight. Rounds 1-20 won 0 from 8. Rounds 21-27 won 3 from 4.
Rookies and most stepping up: Iongi, Smith, Papali’i, Kautoga, Tuivaiti, and even Russell providing impact for his best season to date; Paulo logging career-high minutes in a renassaince year; Williams' a career year; Walker proving the missing link in the middle
Ryles' recruitment strategies: Has a scent for the right fit and attitude. Fox, Walker, Iongi, Williams, Kautoga, Papali'i, Hawkins proving good recruits.
Back Three: Lomax, Fox, Iongi have been outstanding. Lomax is a Payne Haas on the wing. Helps relieve stress on pack.
Improved culture: Younger, fitter, faster roster playing with visible resilience and cohesion. Leadership from Moses, Paulo, Walker, the Fox, and Williams.
Systems: attacking and defensive structures showing improvement and promise

Weaknesses

Ball control and errors: 13th in completions (79%) and 4th worst for errors (~12 per game). Has cost winnable matches.
Reliance on Moses: Win rate drops from 54% with him to 27% without. His kicking game is critical. 2026-2027 could hinge on his injury status.
Spine still evolving: Five-eighth role remains unresolved; a young spine still developing
Right-edge defence: Still the softest corridor; heavily targeted.
Overworking stars: Paulo’s heavy minutes and Lomax’s forced involvement (via premeditated kicks) risk burnout and inefficiency, and some lost opportunities.

Opportunities

Targeted recruitment: Punch in the middle and more strike out wide (centre) could elevate attack. A more established six?
Kaizen continuity: Another preseason under Ryles should help cohesion, combinations and sharpen execution.
Pathways and development: Shows promise and renewed investment. Translation into first-grade will be critical for sustainable success.
MOMAX: could be used with more variation. Sometimes pre-determined last-tackle kick for Lomax has resulted in lost opportunities.

Threats

Second-year syndrome: Young squad may regress in intensity and consistency after the adrenaline of a late-season surge.
Salary cap squeeze: Clean-up job in 2025–26 leaves limited flexibility until 2027; risks stagnation if injuries strike and depth challenged.
Roster succession gaps: Key veterans (Paulo, JDB, Walker, Fox) nearing the back end of careers.
Competition benchmark: Rivals like Panthers and Storm combine talent with calm-headed leadership (Cleary, Yeo, Grant). We're still a work in progress.

Quirky Stat

The Eels have finished the season with three-straight wins for only the third time in the Eels' NRL history: 2001 (grand final), 2022 (grand final), and 2025.

Quick comparison with Dogs rebuild

It took their rebuild three years to get to the finals once Gus took over mid-2021 as the architect. They were in doldrums missing the finals five times 2017-2021 (11th-16th wooden spoon).
1st Year (2022): 16th ➝ 12th improvement from spoon after leaking 710 points in 2021 (Barrett)
2nd Year (2023): 12th ➝ 15th regression to third-last (Ciraldo's first year)
3rd Year (2024): 15th ➝ 6th Finals, first time in eight years since 2016
4th Year (2025): 6th ➝ 3rd Finals, top-four, for first time in thirteen years since 2012

"A victim, that's a good description actually. On reflection I've always felt he was appearing to be thrust into positions and was along for the ride. He appears disconnected during so many interviews off the field. It comes accross like you say his…"

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