The most pleasing aspect of this year amid a bold rebuild has been the improvement in the Eels' defence — a barometer of attitude — after four years of decline post-2020 (3rd, 4th, 8th, 11th, 16th). Kaizen in motion. The late-season surge was also a glimpse of what the Eels could be. A genuine turning point? Hopefully. I'm rooting for it. It's worth noting the cap won't be cleared up until 2027 with a significant war chest. If the improvement continues, it'll help encourage more players to come aboard.
A Brief SWOT Analysis
Strengths
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Coaching alignment: Unity between coach, CEO, GM, and board, giving Jason Ryles stability and space to implement long-term strategies. There is a promising Club-First, Team-First ethos building.
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Defensive turnaround: From worst in the NRL over first six weeks to top-3 defence in the final seven-game stretch. Evidence of buy-in.
Nightmare start 1/ 6 (17%), rock bottom 17th last on ladder Attack second-worst (13.4pg), Defence worst, 17th (30.4pg) during this period Crawling out of hole 4 / 12 (33%), up one place 16th Attack 10th (21.3pg), Defence 11th (23.6pg) Blazing Finish 5 / 7 (71%), finish at 11th, highest of season Attack 7th, 27pg, Defence 3rd, 16.6pg -
Momentum builder: Ended with a 5 from 7 wins, including 3 wins from 4 against top-eight teams — a sign they can match intensity at the pointy end.
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Competitiveness against best: Against the teams in the top-eight. Rounds 1-20 won 0 from 8. Rounds 21-27 won 3 from 4.
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Rookies and most stepping up: Iongi, Smith, Papali’i, Kautoga, Tuivaiti, and even Russell providing impact for his best season to date; Paulo logging career-high minutes in a renassaince year; Williams' a career year; Walker proving the missing link in the middle
- Ryles' recruitment strategies: Has a scent for the right fit and attitude. Fox, Walker, Iongi, Williams, Kautoga, Papali'i, Hawkins proving good recruits.
- Back Three: Lomax, Fox, Iongi have been outstanding. Lomax is a Payne Haas on the wing. Helps relieve stress on pack.
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Improved culture: Younger, fitter, faster roster playing with visible resilience and cohesion. Leadership from Moses, Paulo, Walker, the Fox, and Williams.
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Systems: attacking and defensive structures showing improvement and promise
Weaknesses
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Ball control and errors: 13th in completions (79%) and 4th worst for errors (~12 per game). Has cost winnable matches.
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Reliance on Moses: Win rate drops from 54% with him to 27% without. His kicking game is critical. 2026-2027 could hinge on his injury status.
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Spine still evolving: Five-eighth role remains unresolved; a young spine still developing
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Right-edge defence: Still the softest corridor; heavily targeted.
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Overworking stars: Paulo’s heavy minutes and Lomax’s forced involvement (via premeditated kicks) risk burnout and inefficiency, and some lost opportunities.
Opportunities
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Targeted recruitment: Punch in the middle and more strike out wide (centre) could elevate attack. A more established six?
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Kaizen continuity: Another preseason under Ryles should help cohesion, combinations and sharpen execution.
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Pathways and development: Shows promise and renewed investment. Translation into first-grade will be critical for sustainable success.
- MOMAX: could be used with more variation. Sometimes pre-determined last-tackle kick for Lomax has resulted in lost opportunities.
Threats
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Second-year syndrome: Young squad may regress in intensity and consistency after the adrenaline of a late-season surge.
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Salary cap squeeze: Clean-up job in 2025–26 leaves limited flexibility until 2027; risks stagnation if injuries strike and depth challenged.
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Roster succession gaps: Key veterans (Paulo, JDB, Walker, Fox) nearing the back end of careers.
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Competition benchmark: Rivals like Panthers and Storm combine talent with calm-headed leadership (Cleary, Yeo, Grant). We're still a work in progress.
Quirky Stat
- The Eels have finished the season with three-straight wins for only the third time in the Eels' NRL history: 2001 (grand final), 2022 (grand final), and 2025.
Quick comparison with Dogs rebuild
- It took their rebuild three years to get to the finals once Gus took over mid-2021 as the architect. They were in doldrums missing the finals five times 2017-2021 (11th-16th wooden spoon).
- 1st Year (2022): 16th ➝ 12th improvement from spoon after leaking 710 points in 2021 (Barrett)
- 2nd Year (2023): 12th ➝ 15th regression to third-last (Ciraldo's first year)
- 3rd Year (2024): 15th ➝ 6th Finals, first time in eight years since 2016
- 4th Year (2025): 6th ➝ 3rd Finals, top-four, for first time in thirteen years since 2012
Replies
Looking at the ba era in defence, and its mostly in the red and in nearly half his time, finishing in the bottom 4 id d.
Premiership-winning teams are built on defence, and the team under Ryles are showing that they can now turn the opposition away defending our own try line. That hasn't happened since - well honestly i can't recall when.
Since April the clubs for and against is
423 and 376 against.
It took time to adjust to Ryles's defensive structures, and the proof is in the pudding 🍮 in our last 18 games results.
And don't forget, the club still had a few million dollars worth of players on our books who had either not wanted to play, released, or in the process of retiring - Matterson, Ofehengaue, Cartwright, Lane, Hands.
Yep, Chiefy, true. I reckon 2025-26 is around a $5-6m cap hit because of the rebuild-clean up.
PS: I was going to add details of that but my blogs are already torturously long enough.
Defensively. 4/11 seasons were we higher than 8th. 7/11 we were mid-range 8th to 16th. We were Jeckly-Hyde. Moses essentially admitted it on a podcast: Even the best year (2022) was up & down. The group was surprised & just content to make the GF.
Is that podcast on parra+ hoe?
Chiefy, It's on Sixes and Seves. Nathan Cleary and Sam Walker are also good listens. Bullet points re that Moses interview off the top of my head:
The secret sauce to JRs success is his juniors and recruited taking the next step that's going to be the key.
From what I'm seeing from our youngsters are good players but not elite talent.I look at a guy like Russell whose improvement has been consistent but he'll never be a player teams fear.
I look at Casey Maclean in comparison as light years better talent wise and in a system where he can thrive and that's key with us the growth within JRs system can for go the talent difference.
PS Line 1 We need to beat Tigers, Newcastle, Titans, Dolphins, St George on every occasion, if we play them twice there's 20 points.....
Line 2 We need to beat Cronulla, Dogs, Warriors, Roosters, Cowboys, Bronco's, Panthers, Storm, Manly, Souths,
Beat them once each and you have another 20 points.
That should get us top 4, but we have to play by picking off every side one at a time! Not by looking at a broad picture.
I also think we may have an "opportunity" with depth, we can look at a rotation principle for some of our forwards.
At stages we will have to rest Junior, JDB, Smith and Tavititi, maybe also Lomax, pending his rep commitments and also a couple of middles that will end up with "niggles".
Of course the normal injury attrition will raise its head all over this process,
imteresting Blog in the sense of setting a scene of what we have to do and also what we need to avoid.
Threats..... are interesting and my greatest concern is 2nd Year syndrome......absolutely essential we get away to a good start but more importantly I know we will be a threat against the good sides ......the games we need to nail will be regarded as fringe sides but no one will really be an easybeat.
Other sides this year will look at us very carefully because they know we can rise to any occasion. The danger becomes that games against the so called fringe sides will be looked at by them as still a game they can win! It will be up to us to actually have these side's scared at the prospect of playing us, rather than "this is a side we can beat"!.
Pops, interesting points. It's an open competion this year. It feels like almost any side can beat any side on their day, besides the Knights who fell into a heap from mid-year.
The two powerhouses, the Panthers and Storm, are NOT shoe-ins. The Storm have had some very un-Storm like performances getting belted by the Dolphins and Roosters.
That's on the surface. Symptoms. It makes me wonder. What's happening in the shadows where the action happens behind the scenes? Where causes begin.
Sure, there are obvious inequities with teams like the Dogs, Roosters, Broncos, and plenty of clubs able to recruit high-end marquees with greater ease than us, at the moment. It's incredible the NRL take a blind eye to it, but as long as the coffers are being filled, why fix what ain't broken for them? Avoiding scandals would be high up on the list as well. They seem to peddle the idea of the cap being an equalizer. And the change to open seasons, where almost anyone can win, helps reinforce that.
BUT are the sugar daddies evolving? The assumption from many fans is the secret to winning is to get more heavy business sticks, TPAs (which are rarely really at an arms length from a club) or all those clever instruments clubs use to circumnavigate the hard cap. Jim noted on a podcast official TPAs aren't as widespread as fans assume.
The other problem is the naive assumption you can persuade big sticks with some kind of sexy posturing or superstar administrators that aren't fan-deemed "dopes". Why don't the Panthers have billionaires then with the greatest dynasty since the Saints era (1955-66)? Because they don't grow on trees, and they need to have a club running through their veins — super fans — if they're throwing money and resources for a club and a reason to trust it will actually pay off. Then, you get the disgruntled super fan like Russell Crowe is looking to sell his share of Souths. But a budding big stick may be growing in the Panthers' younger fan base to arise in a few decades. Look at how many fans have come about due the Eels' glory years.
Look at the last five years. You get the Panthers who win four on the trot without sugar daddy billionaires and as deep pockets as others. What does that tell you? Are they getting more fiscally conservative or selective?