Two teams hunting the same thing at different stages of the path.
Consistency. Jason Ryles talked about it at length this week.
The Eels haven’t been able to put three games together with fight. Not since the end of last year, when they strung two months of it.
Some will say that run came off the back of Brown and Lomax. Or that it was an aberration. Maybe just luck.
Others believe. The coach and the team must believe.
The second-placed Warriors look like the opposite. And yet, even they haven’t won four straight since rounds 7 to 11 last year.
It’s their 400th premiership game in Australia. They’ll come to CommBank remembering the last time. Winning 46–10.
Teams
Eels 15th vs Warriors 2nd, CommBank Stadium, Parramatta, 5:30pm (AEST)
Weather: Fine
Referees: Gerard Sutton (Referee), Wyatt Raymond (Senior Review Official, bunker).
Sportsbet: Eels $2.86, Warriors $1.43. Eels drop to $126 in premiership betting, third-last ahead of the Titans and Dragons. Warriors are 4th at $13.
Eels: 1. Joash Papali’i 2. Brian Kelly 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Sean Russell 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Ronald Volkman 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Luca Moretti 9. Ryley Smith 10. Junior Paulo 18. Kelma Tuilagi 12. Jack Williams 13. Jack de Belin
Bench: 11. Charlie Guymer 14. Tallyn Da Silva 15. Saxon Pryke 17. Dylan Walker 19. Lorenzo Talataina 21. Teancum Brown
Cut: 16. Toni Mataele 20. Jordan Samrani 22. Araz Nanva
Head Coach: Jason Ryles
Warriors: 1. Taine Tuaupiki 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 3. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck 4. Adam Pompey 5. Alofiana Khan-Pereira 6. Chanel Harris-Tavita 7. Tanah Boyd 8. James Fisher-Harris 9. Wayde Egan 10. Jackson Ford 11. Leka Halasima 12. Kurt Capewell 13. Erin Clark
Bench: 14. Samuel Healey 16. Demitric Vaimauga 17. Jacob Laban 18. Eddie Ieremia-Toeava 20. Luke Metcalf 21. Kayliss Fatialofa
Cut: 15. Tanner Stowers-Smith 22. Te Maire Martin 23. Makaia Tafua
Head Coach: Andrew Webster
Stats
The Eels have won six of their last seven games against the Warriors.
Try scorers
Josh Addo-Carr has scored 12 tries in his last nine games at CommBank Stadium.
Alofiana Khan-Pereira has scored try doubles in all four games he has played against the Eels.
Defence
The Eels are ranked 17th for defence conceding 35 per game.
The Warrors are ranked 3rd conceding 19.5 per game
First try scorer
Warriors have scored first in 7/8 games this season.
Half-time predictor
When the Eels are ahead at half-time they have won 18 of their last 19 against the Warriors.
When the Eels trail at half-time they have lost 17 of their last 19 against the Warriors.
The Rollercoaster
Our season.
Blowout
Fight-Fight (two wins)
Blowout
Fight (close loss)
Blowout
Fight-Fight
We need to be "realistic", Jason Ryles conceded yesterday.
He added it's not just the injury crisis but also having "eight guys at any one time with under 20 games".
Using 28 players already, the most in the game, doesn't help either.
"That's just where they're at in the career. Inconsistencies are all part of the learning process."
"The consistency will come over time," Ryles concluded.
Magic Bullets and K.I.S.S
"Possession is King"
Jason Ryles yesterday.
Hold the ball. In this era, it’s the difference between being in the game and being blown off the park.
Last week showed it against Manly.
15–9 errors. Game over.
Even the Panthers lost 32–16 with a 15–8 error count.
Manly had 80% possession for 20 minutes. Five errors. Two restarts. A penalty. A sin-bin. Three tries in thirteen minutes.
It doesn’t take long.
The same thing happened to the Panthers. The Dolphins had 70% possession for 20-minutes. Four tries in fifteen minutes.
"Defences don’t stand a chance", in the Restart Era. Gus Gould told us that in this weel's latest Six Tackles podcast.
We also fell away in other fundaments. The Eels were in it 7-6 at halftime and kicked for almost 500m. But, we fell away in the second half and kicked for only 240m.
It also applies to the Warriors.
The only two games the Warriors have lost is when they lost completions, didn't win the error count, and the opposition kicked over 600m.
Sometimes stats tell the brutal truth.
But pressure with and without the ball creates errors.
Inexperience and combinations without game reps is another factor.
Many fans believe it's less about grit and the fundamentals and more about recruiting a bevvy of star players. Sack enough people. Sexy sales' pitches. Better players. Wallah. Job done. Who said magic bullets don't exist?
Ryles again went on the reaslism route here again.
"Recruitment is one of the hardest spaces in the game if not the hardest," he admitted.
History backs Ryles' realism over magic bullets.
The boring basics apply even to the best rosters in the game.
In the last twenty years only two grand-finalists have had worse completions in the game than the runners up.
Let's look closer at the two outliers to understand how they overcome the total game stats. The 2016 Sharks (90% v 91%) and the 2013 Roosters. But teams lost overall completions in the game, but won completions and held ball better in the last 30 minutes –when it counted – to win.
Jack De Belin, the 250-plus gamer, also keeps it simple.
He admitted Ryles has asked for more aggression and intent.
"You don't need to be the most skillful or the best. As long as you turn up with a good attitude and have a lot of intent with what you do, especially as a forward, you can get the job done, week in, week out."
"For us (defence), it's an attitude thing. We just need to become switched on and bring it physically. And you can match it with anyone on any day," he told us yesterday.
Belief. Many Fans won't have it. Punters won't. But the team has to have it.
Last word
Can the Eels step off the rollercoaster and fight for three straight weeks? It would be the first time this year.
The Warriors are building something steadier. But even they haven’t escaped the wobble either.
It’s not just about effort and grit. It’s about doing the fundamentals better.
If they don’t, history already tells us what happens.
Replies
16 run metres by guymer
Don't fret. He may better that over the next 3 years.
made me think of doing this
looks like the odd errors in their stats :). I still can't believe Guymer stat .... wtf!
Trouble is, 3/4 of our team would perform much better on an individual basis if they were surrounded by regular FG talent that most other teams possess and sadly we don't. Not even sure how competitive we would have been if we wouldve with zero injury count, but it'd have to be better with Hopgood, Simmo and Iongi in at least. Bummer so many novice players they just don't have any 'protectors' or players to pick up and cover on their newbie inexperience. And trouble is our experienced ones are either totally gassed or carrying injuries themselves :((
name a side doing well that have got so many newbies all playing simultaneously? Aren't any.
They are trying hard. Feel for them too.
My question now is, with Smith out for extended period, who is our next in line Hooker? Papali'i would naturally be but he is starting for two more weeks til Iongi is back.
I know it is not ideal but is Pezet the next man up? His defence not good enough but there is nobody else. I would even suggest having Pezet at 19 and let Lorenzo play more Cup instead of coming off during HT.
Owen Pattie on loan would be handy. He's third in line at present for Canberra.
It's a specialist role so the next man up mentality Ryles speaks of would have to be adhered to? It would not be ideal or pretty, anyone but Pezet.
We simply have no go forward at all and it makes the deficiencies in the rest of team more glaring. Same issues as the Storm, and they have a better spine. Get NAS to come out of retirement!! We need size badly.
Just watched the replay... dear oh dear. Yes we have injuries... but we have a team 50% full of absolute junk. And even without the injuries that would almost still be the case.
- Penis... decent effort for the try, but it was really Kelly's try, other than that... we have a centre who is slow and can't defend and has terrible hands. He's got 0 from 3 main qualities you'd want... but we persist as only Parra can. Non-starter at most clubs... regular 1st grader here. Should be gone.
- Kelma... one of the dumbest errors ever... and it always happens. Just not good enough. Fark off.
- Guymer... offers what?
- Russell... does the odd ok thing but stone cold drops... like others, genuine 1st graders just can't do that. We want to challenge for a title, him leaving is no loss.
- Forwards in general... as compared to the Wahs, who in our side runs off the back fence and / or hammers people in defence? No one. We are lame.
- Mitch... I'm sorry... just does not justify his salary and his goal kicking has dropped off way too much. Each week the same - he's the leader, the half, the ability... he'll have to step up and carry this side... does he? Volk was as good or better tonight. Mitch is trading on reputation too much, not performance.
- Joash and Fox offer zero on run backs... Joash error on pick up again, it's just not good enough and not 1st grade standard.
We have no identity and make no mark. We are not known for anything. We are the 'meh' of NRL sides.
The high speed flyer team... nope. The aggressive / feared forwards team... nope. The brick wall / dogs of war defence team... nope. The entertainers / attack team that doesn't care what you score, we'll score more... nope. What are we?
Everything about this club, other than financial results, has become just absolutely bog average. We are bog average. Brick wall defence is a pipe dream, high speed attack is impossible, being a grinding get the basics right no mistakes team is beyond our ability.
We've got nothing... again... as always. Light at the end of the tunnel... there is none. Recognising something is terribly wrong and making changes... beyond any ability we have. Hope isn't a strategy... but it's all we have sadly. There isn't a soul at this club with the strategic ability to take this football side forward.
How we are spending remotely close to the salary cap is beyond me. We should be getting fined for spending only about half of it.
I've got alcohol... thank f**k.
Spot on with everything you said.
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