Two teams hunting the same thing at different stages of the path.
Consistency. Jason Ryles talked about it at length this week.
The Eels haven’t been able to put three games together with fight. Not since the end of last year, when they strung two months of it.
Some will say that run came off the back of Brown and Lomax. Or that it was an aberration. Maybe just luck.
Others believe. The coach and the team must believe.
The second-placed Warriors look like the opposite. And yet, even they haven’t won four straight since rounds 7 to 11 last year.
It’s their 400th premiership game in Australia. They’ll come to CommBank remembering the last time. Winning 46–10.
Teams
Eels 15th vs Warriors 2nd, CommBank Stadium, Parramatta, 5:30pm (AEST)
Weather: Fine
Referees: Gerard Sutton (Referee), Wyatt Raymond (Senior Review Official, bunker).
Sportsbet: Eels $2.86, Warriors $1.43. Eels drop to $126 in premiership betting, third-last ahead of the Titans and Dragons. Warriors are 4th at $13.
Eels: 1. Joash Papali’i 2. Brian Kelly 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Sean Russell 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Ronald Volkman 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Luca Moretti 9. Ryley Smith 10. Junior Paulo 11. Charlie Guymer 12. Jack Williams 13. Jack de Belin
Bench: 14. Tallyn Da Silva 15. Saxon Pryke 17. Dylan Walker 18. Kelma Tuilagi 19. Lorenzo Talataina 20. Jordan Samrani
Reserves: 21. Teancum Brown
Cut: 16. Toni Mataele 22. Araz Nanva
Head Coach: Jason Ryles
Warriors: 1. Taine Tuaupiki 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 3. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck 4. Adam Pompey 5. Alofiana Khan-Pereira 6. Chanel Harris-Tavita 7. Tanah Boyd 8. James Fisher-Harris 9. Wayde Egan 10. Jackson Ford 11. Leka Halasima 12. Kurt Capewell 13. Erin Clark
Bench: 14. Samuel Healey 16. Demitric Vaimauga 17. Jacob Laban 18. Eddie Ieremia-Toeava 20. Luke Metcalf 21. Kayliss Fatialofa
Reserves: 23. Makaia Tafua
Cut: 15. Tanner Stowers-Smith 22. Te Maire Martin
Head Coach: Andrew Webster
Stats
The Eels have won six of their last seven games against the Warriors.
Try scorers
Josh Addo-Carr has scored 12 tries in his last nine games at CommBank Stadium.
Alofiana Khan-Pereira has scored try doubles in all four games he has played against the Eels.
Defence
The Eels are ranked 17th for defence conceding 35 per game.
The Warrors are ranked 3rd conceding 19.5 per game
First try scorer
Warriors have scored first in 7/8 games this season.
Half-time predictor
When the Eels are ahead at half-time they have won 18 of their last 19 against the Warriors.
When the Eels trail at half-time they have lost 17 of their last 19 against the Warriors.
The Rollercoaster
Our season.
Blowout
Fight-Fight (two wins)
Blowout
Fight (close loss)
Blowout
Fight-Fight
We need to be "realistic", Jason Ryles conceded yesterday.
He added it's not just the injury crisis but also having "eight guys at any one time with under 20 games".
Using 28 players already, the most in the game, doesn't help either.
"That's just where they're at in the career. Inconsistencies are all part of the learning process."
"The consistency will come over time," Ryles concluded.
Magic Bullets and K.I.S.S
"Possession is King"
Jason Ryles yesterday.
Hold the ball. In this era, it’s the difference between being in the game and being blown off the park.
Last week showed it against Manly.
15–9 errors. Game over.
Even the Panthers lost 32–16 with a 15–8 error count.
Manly had 80% possession for 20 minutes. Five errors. Two restarts. A penalty. A sin-bin. Three tries in thirteen minutes.
It doesn’t take long.
The same thing happened to the Panthers. The Dolphins had 70% possession for 20-minutes. Four tries in fifteen minutes.
"Defences don’t stand a chance", in the Restart Era. Gus Gould told us that in this weel's latest Six Tackles podcast.
We also fell away in other fundaments. The Eels were in it 7-6 at halftime and kicked for almost 500m. But, we fell away in the second half and kicked for only 240m.
It also applies to the Warriors.
The only two games the Warriors have lost is when they lost completions, didn't win the error count, and the opposition kicked over 600m.
Sometimes stats tell the brutal truth.
But pressure with and without the ball creates errors.
Inexperience and combinations without game reps is another factor.
Many fans believe it's less about grit and the fundamentals and more about recruiting a bevvy of star players. Sack enough people. Sexy sales' pitches. Better players. Wallah. Job done. Who said magic bullets don't exist?
Ryles again went on the reaslism route here again.
"Recruitment is one of the hardest spaces in the game if not the hardest," he admitted.
History backs Ryles' realism over magic bullets.
The boring basics apply even to the best rosters in the game.
In the last twenty years only two grand-finalists have had worse completions in the game than the runners up.
Let's look closer at the two outliers to understand how they overcome the total game stats. The 2016 Sharks (90% v 91%) and the 2013 Roosters. But teams lost overall completions in the game, but won completions and held ball better in the last 30 minutes –when it counted – to win.
Jack De Belin, the 250-plus gamer, also keeps it simple.
He admitted Ryles has asked for more aggression and intent.
"You don't need to be the most skillful or the best. As long as you turn up with a good attitude and have a lot of intent with what you do, especially as a forward, you can get the job done, week in, week out."
"For us (defence), it's an attitude thing. We just need to become switched on and bring it physically. And you can match it with anyone on any day," he told us yesterday.
Belief. Many Fans won't have it. Punters won't. But the team has to have it.
Last word
Can the Eels step off the rollercoaster and fight for three straight weeks? It would be the first time this year.
The Warriors are building something steadier. But even they haven’t escaped the wobble either.
It’s not just about effort and grit. It’s about doing the fundamentals better.
If they don’t, history already tells us what happens.
Replies
Eels by 4, Moses MOM
T brown isn't named in nsw cup, he could be a late inclusion.
Love the optimisim, King Gutho. Not many would share your optimism though.
If T Brown and Lorenzo debut, we'd have used 30 players.
We need to be realistic? Fmd
Analyst, "realism" is completely optional.
Seriously can't see Eels winning this match but anything is possible.
After Flegg and Cup won against the warriors today, can we make it a clean sweep.
Why not. Flegg won 30-24 and Cup finished 43-14.
Gee there was'nt a bad player for us anywhere today but to me in Flegg Bamblett was terrific in the 6 shirt, a superstar, with Koina Miller and Nunn also killing it.
Apa Twidle returned off the bench today on the wing/centres and scored a great try from 30 yards out showing how to get over the line with faster men chasing. That was in Cup. The 1 Brad Avery saved two certain tries today and played well as did Pezet.
In the forwards Koina led the way followed by Mataele, Lokeni, Ryda and the Viscount.
Zac scored a magical try thru the middle from 30 yards out with strenght evasion and speed, particularly speed.
So far the day is going good. I feel it could continue.