As things stand, at the beginning of round nine, NRL history suggests three reasons our once-promising season is on a precipice.
The next two months will be critical - starting with premiership favourites Penrith this week (R9), Roosters (R10), Manly (R11), before the bye, followed by the Panthers again (R15) and then Souths (R16). Here are three things that history tells us.
We’re outside the zone
Right now, we sit outside the premiership zone: average score per game versus average defence per game for all premiers from 1998 onwards; except for 5 outlier premiers (shown below).
I like to think of this zone being like the trajectory of a fighter jet: speed (attack) versus altitude (defence). We can't handle much altitude at the moment.
Worst Two defensive ranks: 9th and 10th; we’re here
The 9th and 10th ranking of the 2001 Knights and the 2005 Tigers is the worst defensive-rank of a premiership team not only in NRL history, but the game; both conceding over 20 per game.
Doing a quick count of the grand final winners in the game’s history (102 grand finals, including the double up for 1997 SL/ARL season, excluding 11 non-grand finals and two 2007 and 2009 stripped grand finals): 88.24% (90/102) won by top 4 defences, 9.8% (10/102) won by 5-7th top defence, 1.96% (2/102) won by 9th (2001 Knights) , or 10th (2005 Tigers).
Our current defensive rank of 9th, and we concede 20.25 per game. Bottom of the draw. But that is the tip of the iceberg.
Can’t afford more big blowouts
In last week’s 35-4 loss to the Cowboys, we conceded a 31 point margin. A big red flag.
Although half of the NRL premiers concede scores of 35 (11/22) few concede the margin we did.
Premiership teams don’t allow many blowouts over 20 points margin (more than about 3 converted tries), and if they do, they bounce back and don't make it a habit. Of all the games the 22 NRL premiers have played in only 5 games out of 602 games (0.8%) did they concede more than a 30-point margin; like what we did last week.
Even the 2005 Tigers, statistically the worst-ranked defensive premiership team in history, never conceded more than a 24 point margin; we’re already worse.
What the above table shows is we can’t concede more blowout margins of over 20 points.
If anyone looked at the above table, you might be asking what about the 2001 Knights? They were the one premiership winning team that allowed blow-outs for fun; four over 20 points margin. They were a yo-yo. So, let's look at that.
And here is the most telling statistic.
From round 5 onwards, when Andrew Johns played they won 15 from 16 and they never conceded a blowout over 20 point margin (albeit one 19 point loss).
In this Joey-led 16-game run to premiership glory, they scored a mind-blowing 38 points per game and conceded less than 20 per game at 19.44; even beating the record-breaking 2001 Eels twice. They Knight did eventually lose 0-40 to the Eels in round 17; when Johns was out, naturally. All a co-incidence?
Without Joey they lost 6 from 8 (25% winning ratio).
With Joey they lost 3 from 21, and drew 1 game (81% winning ratio).
Joey's and Kennedy's Knights were like the extremes of Mercury: almost -200C on one side, over 400C on the other.
It shows how much of an influentual statistical transformation Joey had. And, perhaps the power of a settled cohesive spine (good to see Dylan Brown back at 6 this week).
Does this mercurial nature remind you of a team; champs one week, chumps the next?
And let's not even try to make a comparison with the 2004 Dogs who also concede over 20 points per game (like us) and conceded two blowout scores over their season. Young and at their peak. Roy Asotasi, El Masri, Reni Maitua, Willie Mason, Mark O'Meley, Luke Pattern, Steve Price, Andrew 'Bobcat' Ryan, Brett Sherwin, Jonathan Thurston, Willie Tonga, Matt Utai, Sonny Bill Williams, and the salary cap.
Despite how atrocious our attack was last week against the Cowboys, it’s really our defence, a symptom of many other things, that has us on the brink.
Bottom Line
We’re going to need to show some cohesion as well as mental and defensive fortitude, not just this week but in the next two months; a danger zone. No blowouts. If not, our confidence will be shot, and history suggests it’s game over.
It looks even more dire for the Broncos, Raiders, Dragons who have conceded multiple 20-point margin blowouts. And even worse for the Warriors (10-70 v Storm, R7) , the Knights (2-50 v Storm, R8), and the Dogs (0-44 v Storm R4) . No premiership team in NRL history has let in more than 49 points in total in a game and have never conceded more than a 40 point margin. History suggests they can be struck off. Another 5 minutes last week, and we may have got there as well.
At round 9 all is not lost yet for us, hitherto. We’re coming fifth and have great potential, but we’re also on a knife’s edge sailing close to the wind.
PS: Extra stats on Panthers (1st) v Eels (5th), Friday night game, 7.55pm at BlueBet Stadium:
- Well in the zone, the Panthers, the undefeated reigning premiers and premiership favorites, are looking to win their 11th straight NRL win (they did 17 straight in 2020).
- New record: The Panthers are gunning for 5 straight wins against the injury-hit Eels for the first time in history.
- Poor recent history: The Eels have only won 2 from the last 7 against the Panthers.
- Eels' Last win v Panthers: Was two years ago at CommBank Stadium R5, 2020 Friday night 16-10, a game where Dylan Brown was sent to the sin-bin, under Gerard Sutton.
- Close games, last 7 years: Since 2015, 12 of the last 14 games, have been close with a margin of between 1 to 10 points.
- At BlueBet Stadium v Penrith: in the last six years since 2016 the Eels have lost 4 from 5 games here. Eels last win at this ground was three years ago; R1, 2019 20-12.
- Last 5 behind at half-time: The Eels have been behind at half-time in the last 5 games v the Panthers, and the Eels don't do well when behind at half-time, winning less than 23% of their games since 2019 when behind.
- Taylan May: third-highest leading tryscorer in the competition has been a revelation: scoring 8 tries from 6 games this season.
- Gerard Sutton: Neither side has played under Sutton (ref from 2009 - present) in 2022, yet. Eels have won 38.9% (14/36) under him, only winning 1 from the last 5. Panthers have a far better record under him winning 58.5% (24/41) winning 14 from last 17. Panthers-Eels have played 4 games under Sutton, with the Panthers winning 3 of 4 during (2009-2020).
Replies
Insightful as always mate-
But depressing stats & probabilities.
Thanks mate. I know, right? I was going to abandon this venture as half of the NRL premiers conceded 35-49 points, thinking no biggie, sheet happens. But, then I started looking at the margins & thought: hang on these blowout margins are telling...
Looking into those blowouts by premiers a lot of them happened when key personel was missing, especially in the spine. And the champion teams didn't make a habit out of it.
It has become a pattern that we can't rectify, why?
You're a creative, deep thinker Bert, I've been observing; not just a fun loving, witty guy.
My honest take on it is: it's in between the ears.
But, that effects not only what happens on the park, but off it. In our training, in our preparation for a season and specific games; even team selections and dynamics. We're not quite there.
Injuries and so on don't help because they throw the cohesiveness and dynamics out of whack.
It's not an easy fix, IMO. I suppose it comes under the umbrella of that mystical "culture" paradigm. I'm not sure we have enough smarts; also in the coaching side. I think we also need a few more hard heads in the team from a winning background. But, I'm not an NRL coach or administrator, this is just a next-to-worthless punters' opinion.
We really need a solid performance on Friday night. Like oxygen at high altitudes. Another big blowout, and it's pretty much curtains as a genuine contender. Sounds drastic, and over-dramatic, but that's what NRL history is telling us, or warning. And you look at what Penrith and the Storm are producing. Holy Moses...
How bout dinner and a movie, HOE? Lol
Be very very careful how you reply to this post HOE...
P.S. Great blog again. I'm a stats nerd myself, so find all this very interesting. But on the other hand, history is filled with examples of teams that have done things that have never been done before.
lol, you guys ... okay, how' bout Bert , MeelK and I all have dinner together; on a round table. A threesome and a hot pot.
Yep, true, you never know Meelk. There's always a 1 in a hundred or two hundred year storm that'll eventually come to pass.
We could be lucky enough to face the Cows in the grand final (Panthers, Storm and Sharks have a meltdown), & we exact revenge over the sweaty bastards.
A threesome and a hot pot. That sounds like the best night ever.
haaahaa... don't forget; all of it on a round table.
All of the above is valid information but if the Eels can't put their best team on the field due to injuries, then it's a bit of a strech to think they have a genuine chance at winning a title.
-
1
-
2
-
3
-
4
of 4 Next