Strap yourselves in 1EE'rs, this game is shaping as one for the ages, heading up to the Northern Territory, this game is considered a home game for us. Make no mistake though this will be one of the hardest home games we will play this year.
Consider this: The boys will be playing their 3rd game in 11 days in another quirk the NRL have dished up to our team which on the surface seems harsh, especially on the back of playing multiple teams after their bye, and facing one of the hardest draws to date, playing 5 of the top 8 teams from last year in our first 8 rounds. The boys left Sydney today " Tuesday" travelling 3935km making their way to Darwin, stepping off the plane, they have found themselves in the land of high humidity, to top it off the NRL have decided in their wisdom to pit us against the current number 1 team on the ladder, and one of 3 teams used to the heat , the Brisbane Broncos.
Who handles the humidity better us or them, may the question that impacts this match.
The Teams
Brad Arthur has named probably our strongest team to date this year, with all hands on deck.
I quite like this team, and our obvious deficiencies lie around the centre and wing spots, this week occupied by Dunster and Russell. These positions have been somewhat of a horror show in recent times and I know plenty here have strong opinions on who should occupy these spots. Have your say and let us know if BA has got the right players in the starting side.
The Match Ups
Its hard to go past Gutho Vs Walsh.
This is where the action will be, both players will play an enormous part in their teams fortunes. Walsh has been in extraordinary form and has probably played his way into the Queensland State of Origin squad. Gutho has stepped it up even further this year, showing himself as the ultimate warrior. Walsh possess speed like few in the game, Gutho posesses a defensive game equal to any currently playing. Both these boys are going to come face to face many times in this game and who ever blinks first with a mistake will find themselves behind on the scoreboard.
Sivo / Dunster vs Cobbo / Oates. Sivo is the games highest try scorer this year to date, with Cobbo not far behind him. Cobbo has grown his game this year and is in red hot form. The Broncos have try scoring ability right accross the park with 7 of their players Walsh/Cobbo/Staggs/ Capewell/Farnworth/ Ezra Mam in the top 30 try scorers this year. Our Eels have two players in the top 30 with Sivo and Gutho coming in at number 28.
Moses vs Reynolds: The tacticians. Both Halves are close to or at the top of their games. Both have been at their dominating, scheming best of late. If this game is close, it may very well come down to kicks for goal. Here both players figure in the top echelon with Reynolds holding the number 1 spot with 27 goals and Moses the number 2 spot with 25 goals. Both have registered field goals.
Forwards: Seriously most of these two packs wouldnt look out of place in the State Of Origin Arena. Both packs boast enormous go forward, with the Broncos men led by Hass and Carrigan laying the proverbial Pacfic Highway like platform straight through opposition teams all year, allowing their backs to run amok. Our own RCG has been one of the best forwards in the game this year and refuses to take a backward step. Junior has been missing first with suspension and then an out of sorts game last week, but we know when hes on, the big man can take it to anyone in the game. If both packs turn up determined to play footy, the country may have to turn off the richter scales with the massive hits sure to cause havoc.
The Massacre: We have played Brisbane in Darwin previously with the Eels thrashing the Broncos. But this Broncos team is not that same team. Our boys will need to show up, they will need to defend like they did against Penrith and like they did in stages on their line against the Roosters. If our boys turn up this will be a game for the ages and could set us onto a winning path all year, but if we fail to show that intensity that massacre may very well get reversed. This game can truely go either way. Which brings me to Dylan Brown. Is he playing well, or well enough. Are we asking too much of him or not enough. When a youngster signs a massive contract and takes up a huge cut of the salary cap, expectations go up. One thing I know for sure. If Dylan brings his X game, and turns it on, he will be the difference between these two teams and can lead our team to victory.
High Scoring affairs: What are people's thoughts? Will this be another high-scoring game, or a down-in-trenches arm wrestle? To me, it depends on which Defensive Eels team got on the plane today. Our DNA basically dictates random performances, and as a spectator, its literally impossible to tell which Eels team is pulling on the jersey. Im not sure why we are such an up-and-down team, we can look like grand finalists one game and wooden spooners the next. If anyone has thoughts on why that is, share them here.
For me, I'm going with - this is a huge game against the number 1 team, the boys will use this as motivation, and bring along their A-game.
This game will showcase our gritty nature and our new war-horse mentality, with Warrior Gutherson and Big RCG putting their bodies on the line paving the way for Dylan to steal the game at the death.
The stats show that the Broncos outscore us and concede fewer points than us.
I'm normally a stats man, but this week I'm going to prefer to try and look at this game like one of our old residents here. Pops this is your week, because if we are to win this one then the stats have to be thrown out the window and one has to take a deep breath, go outside to the stable and find Paratroopers Unicorn from last years finals series.
Give him a nice pat and whisper into his ear, and pray for two things, that Gutho can prove Wiz wrong this week and be the x-factor fullback we need and two that Coryn / Brett and Kramerica have been right all along and Dylan makes this game his own. Time will tell.
Replies
Great write up, Bluey. Thanks for the big effort in putting this together.
Didn't realise our record was that good in Darwin... Good news.
Really looking forward to this game, a good indication of where both teams are at.
Raiders had a good blueprint on how to put the young Broncs off their game, up in the face defensively & be physical. Feel we have the game to beat them if we turn up with the mindset we had against Penrith & Roosters.
Not as concerned as others by the heat / humidity, our performance in last years Prelim showed us weather conditions are always secondary to mindset or intent.
Thanks again Bluey.
Thanks NOS, this was actually a hard one for me, with us being so up and down and still not our best. But its our best that we are going to need, and we can produce it. All those that believe in Dylan Brown going to and maintaining that next level of intensity must be shown to be correct in this one. We need him and we need him at his unpredictable best, to break the arm wrestle open.
Well said, Bluey. I know we (respecfully) disagree on DB's form overall, and I know BA was happpier with him last week, but just didnt think that was good enough from him against a very vulnerable Dogs team. Im with you.
As you said, this is a good game for Dylan because one thing we probably all agree on is his fitness is excellent, which gives him a great opportunity to target the big tiring forwards of the Broncos in the heat.
Lets hope, for all our sakes, he can have a break through game this week because you get the feeling thats all he needs right now.
x 2, great effort Bluey.
Love your energy, humour and optimism.
Yeah, fair points NOS & LB about the grind. Raiders and even the Dolphins showed that if you're in the arm wrestle with the Broncos fighting-toe-to-toe and just hang in there - stay with them - they're not invincible. It's a point Gus also made on Six Tackles a few weeks ago.
To be fair, if it does become an arm-wrestle (our best chance), we're not an 80-minute side most weeks of the year let alone half-to-half.
We have a tendency to switch on and off, along with our defence which will undermine our chances to stay with them.
The Walsh-inspired Broncos ' attack won't need much of an opening to bash the barn door down.
Dunster is another point of weakness that provides ample opportunities for them.
Broncos' left-edge and right edges are the most lethal in the comp (Broncos left is more lethal than Souths and their right edge is the equal of the Rabbits) so we know what could happen here on either edge (with our compressed inside men and inability to adapt to fast-shifting points of attack).
Then, you've got Reynold's kicking game that can provide as many opportunities as Moses does. Who wins this battle might decide the outcome if we're playing near our best and in the arm wrestle.
Considering the last few years of history between these two sides (average close to 50) and the fact the last time less than 40 points in total were scored at TIO for us was 8 years ago (2016), they're every chance this will be high-scoring. Perhaps, the slight chance of rain might counter it. And if it's high-scoring affair (likely), who's going to be scoring more points? Probably the Broncos if it's a try-a-thon shootout.
If I start thinking about this game too much, it's hard to see us out-scoring the Broncos if they're on. They should be after last week.
Also, they also look to be really motivated this year after the last few years of disappointments (a bit like the Cows of 22) to atone and redeem themselves - as should we be for last year (in theory).
If we are really on and looking to prove a point with our defence and physicality, like men-possessed, we just might pull off an upset. Our best chance is getting off to a flyer and leading at half-time.
But, if we're a little off-tilt just by a few degrees, the Broncos could win by a fair margin.
HOE you make it easier on this site, with all your behind the scenes work and graphics. Hats off too you my friend.
With Brisbanes edge attack being so potent our boys will need to slide to perfection. We looked great in defence a few times this year with players sliding staying on their man and the inside defence working overtime to come across and complete the tackles. We will need this in spades this game with multiple players engaging in the "little extras" for cover defence.
What i dont want to see is our boys taking too long to get back into the line in defence, lying around the ruck taking in beig breaths or walking back to our own attacking line after a defensive set and a kick. It is going to require all hands on deck to keep the pressure on right across the park.
Talking of Hands, I can see him throw in couple of individual moves in this game, a bit of confidence in playing 80minutes last week a couple of games under his belt, all going well. I think we might see him actually take a dummy half run or even a sneaky little kick. Wouldnt surprise me with a cheeky dummy half try close to the line tonight either.
Thanks, Bluey. Our defence is going to need to be on for sure. Sliding. Scrambling. Desperate. Physical. Inside men need to do their job off the ball too (to help the edges).
I can see 2-3 tries conceded on Dunster's edge against the Broncos' left edge (best in the comp).
Can see Reynold's kicking behind the line for a few. Moses' boot will need to be on the mark. This battle could be decisive.
Broncos should be up and looking for redemption from last week's loss to the Raiders.
I'm thinking, we're going to need to score at least 4-5 tries.
Great points HOE, their edges are lethal & ours are unfortunately vulnerable.
Even considering their far easier draw than Souths, those are pretty damning stats.
We have to hold the ball this week. No silly mistakes, no dropping kicks etc. just cant give them those opportunities.
Interestingly they have given up 46 points in their last two games to Raiders & Titans, so their defense is by no means impenetrable.
One thing Brisbane haven't been forced to do other than in Round 1, is grind. That is an area we like, grinding to a win and create frustration. They are fast but also young, so immaturity can still appear.
LB thats how I see this one if we are to win it. Grind Grind Grind, arm wrestle tactics with the briliance of our playmakers to edge us in front.
They have been full on playing carefree footy and can strike all over the park, but a lot of these young Broncos havent got themselves into an armwrestle this year and experience in this dept will parramount if we are to win it.
Something I saw the other night as well Dunsters speed seemed to be well down. You would know, is he normally a speedster, he also looks a bit smaller this year. Not sure if its my imagination or the new bigger tv in my loungeroom. But that Wing spot and Russells centre spot worry me a great deal.
Well it demonstrates the need for us to buy a centre ASAP. Waqa is hurt too i believe so that could prompt us to be more aggressive in the market.
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