Eels Blogs

Sir Alex Ferguson used to judge the character of a player by how much of a "sore loser" they were. There's a saying: "if you can accept losing, you can't win". At least, not anything of note; and we can't accept last week's loss, just because we showed character and stood toe-to-toe with the champions for 60 minutes. 

Both the Eels and Raiders need to make amends for last week’s losses.

Both teams will look to address some of their vulnerabilities both with and without the ball, some of which they share.

Both are top three defensive teams; and top four defensive teams win eighty percent of NRL premierships.

Both have ample fire-power with the ball, but haven’t quite hit top gear consistently, especially the Raiders, recently. We all know what Sivo, Jennings, Dylan, Moses, Matterson, Waqa, Gutherson, Ferguson offer in attack. Don’t underestimate the likes of Origin stars such as Wighton and Papalii, Cotric and the likes of Williams, Rapana, Hodgson, Papalii, Tapine, Whitehead, Guler, CNK, Scott and the ever reliable Croker. They can score points in a quick fashion if they’re on song. Last year wasn’t a fluke. And the kicking games of both teams should be a sight to behold. Reed is on fire here with his short kicking game. As are Dylan and Moses.

With Raiders being put to the sword by Knights and a undermanned, against-all-odds, never-say-die Manly in the last three weeks, with only a narrow win over the Tigers to show for their efforts, they should be highly motivated. The Eels would be a symbolic scalp.

It's also the first time in four years the teams have played at this ground. The last was in R6, 2016. A 36-6 win over the Raiders, in its previous life as Parramatta Stadium.

We could see another intense firecracker if both teams are on.

Raiders have the wood on us: eleven years

We won the last time in Darwin, 22-16, coming back from being 16-0 down one of our best fight backs last year. Yet, we have only beat the Raiders three times in eleven year years, since 2010 losing the last 11 of 14 matches. But this year we’ve grown a leg, and are a better team, potentially, than many of the last few decades.

Statistically we’re on top: but it’s heavily possession biased

Statistically we’re on top in every way except for missed tackle ratios, which to me suggests we still have it in us to crack under pressure if a team is good enough to take the opportunities. It’s our cover defence and scrambling defence that’s making up for it and fortifying our wall.

Raiders score an average of 3 tries per match (ninth), we score 3.7 (fifth), but both our defences are sound. So, given the huge variation in possession, and closeness of defensive capabilities if the Raiders get enough ball they could pose threats, and win a bruising encounter, though they don't pose the nuclear threat of the Roosters, whom don't clock off.

You learn more from your losses.

Lessons learnt

There's plenty to like about us last week, and our courage, but plenty of lessons: some mental, some with the ball and some without the ball. One of them is not clocking off and making silly errors. 

Ricky Stuart also noted the Raiders were their own worst enemy.

Costly errors and ballooning penalty counts

Last week, the Raiders doubled the error count of their opponents, the extraordinarily brave Eagles (15-8). We almost tripled ours on the Chooks (11-4).

Both teams more than doubled the penalites conceded of their opponents (Raiders 7-2, Eels 7-3).

Raiders are third for most errors in the competition. The Eels used to be one of the best, but keep rising up the ladder of errors made, now seventh. In 2020, to date, the Eels have been one of the least penalised sides (was the least, now the second least, whilst the Raiders have been fifth most; more of a track record. Whether this was due to the Roosters’ pressure or certain individual’s cracking?

We didn't get much of the rub of the green with Cummins.

Klein: another toss of the coin

Klein’s record is on par for both of us (44% us, overall to 44.7% for the Raiders) winning the last three from four, whilst the Raiders have lost the last three from four under Klein.

One worry is he is following a trend of Cummins’ , who wasn’t very pleasant last week and back to his usual sin-binning ways. Like Cummins, Klein seems to allow less six again sets. Will we see another another penalty-a-thon. However, you’d assume the Raiders would have a chance at agitating Klein as much as us.

Clocking Off: the defensive fade strikes again

As was alluded to last week, we have been known to “crack” a head gasket, under pressure against good teams, such as in the last quarter (or either side of half-time) - which is what happened last week. 

In the last quarter, from around the 60th, just like it did against the Roosters last year and also against Manly earlier this year, we faded. 

Barely two minutes after we scored Sivo's try and Moses inspiring sideline conversion to take the lead 10-8, the Roosters struck back on their very first set. Running hard from their red zone into ours on a straggling retreating defensive line they busted our line and delivered the first fatal blow to snatch back the lead.

The critical moments of defensive lapse: the ones Arthur said were outside our "defensive systems".

That was the first fatal crack. The next happened in the most obvious of places: our right edge with Waqa, along with yet another penalty goal.

Both teams have leaky right hand defences, at this point

The odds are high that we’ll see some tries or action in each team’s left side attacks: both teams right hand defence has shown vulnerabilities.

Raiders' and Eels' RHS edges are in the bottom eight of the competition for conceding tries. We’ve leaked 80% of our tries down the right edge, this year. Our right edge was also our weakest defensive link last year but it wasn’t as pronounced as now (in 2019 the right leaked 41% of tries, the left 29%, the middle 30%). So, there’s been a continuation of this theme. 

Last week Waqa and Moses (missed 14 of our team’s 37 tackles). Raiders’ Curtis Scott was also brutally exposed by Manly last week. Tom Turbo who couldn’t wait to get the ball and run down the left edge.

Expect the Raiders left edge to attack regularly: Whitehead, Croker, Rapana , Wighton, will send plenty and it will take an effort to keep them from scoring. You’d also like human-wrecking ball Sivo, Jennings, Dylan and Lane’s chances of scoring as well.

But, don't be surprised to see plenty of left-right shifts and Cotric, Scott, George Williams, Tapine, try it on. They would have seen what the Morris brothers did to both sides: right and left.

The Eels middle and left edge is second best only to the Roosters in terms of tries conceded, an extraordinary improvement on last year. The Raiders are just a notch below us and the Roosters there. 

What happens when we play direct with bodies in motion: second half comeback

Before our fade, the team showed what they are capable of with the ball in the first twenty minutes of the second half.

It caused a "momentum shift”, noted by Roosters’ coach Robinson, and we took the lead, 10-8, for the first time. It was inspiring.

The whole team looked more dangerous with the ball when they ran direct, to the advantage line, with bodies in motion. Nathan Brown, Junior, RCG were instrumental in that, ably assisted by Kaufusi, Nuikore, Gutherson, and Matterson looked better as well running direct.

And even more when Moses and Dylan follow suit and ask the opposition more questions from the second half get go. Their speed and elusiveness is a godsend when the game has more space around the rucks and in retreating defensive lines struggling to get back the ten, and ability to set up support players, or their dangerous short kicking game: asking plenty of questions. 

We played a bit too sideways in portions of the first half and weren’t able to put on any pressure on the Roosters. It’s something that was apparent in the Panthers match,as well. Moses admitted to the same story at the end of the Panthers game, in a live interview with 2GB,noting the Eels came good in the second half playing more direct.

Also, we failed to capitalise on some opportunities: the Gutho linebreak into the Roosters red zone with Waqa on his outside, Matto’s try miraculously stopped by an illegal strip. 

Brown loss is a body blow; and to The Browns’ Cover Story, too

Without Nathan Brown it’s going to be tougher, both for our defence and attack. That’s evened up the ledger, considering the Raiders are without superstar John Bateman who’s absence has hurt the Raiders.

The bookmakers aren’t stupid, either. They’ve adjusted the odds after news of the suspension (from $1.60-$2.35 in our favour).

Since he joined the Eels in 2017, with Brown we've won 31 of 57 matches (54.4%). Without him only 11 of 25 (44%).

Despite the high tackle charge on Victor the Inflictor, and a hard-man reputation that precedes him, Brown was in everything against the Roosters. He ran hard and straight. He made plenty of cover tackles all over the park. For an example,look no further than the first five minutes against the Roosters for typical cover from the Browns, on our right edge (more on that later). It’s typical of what happens throughout a game. He’s a tireless warrior. Given our dependance on scrambling defence it could hurt us if the Raiders find their groove and dominate possession.

It's almost a given you'll see The Browns Cover Story with Gutho on the last line. It's something Moses has been doing a bit more of as well.

The middle: Junior fourth time lucky charm?

As per the Roosters game, this one will be decided by the battle in the middle. We’ll need Junior and RCG playing as minutes as possible, with Brown and Evans out. Nuikore and Kaufusi will need to step us and Stone will need the game of his life to make amends for ten unforgettable minutes last week. Junior has been a godsend for us. His strong running game, his offloads and third-pivot like passing game, his motor.

Junior was the common link in in all three winning matches in the last decade: as the starting front rower in 2014, 2016, last year’s R15 win and this week.

It’s another test of character

On form and on the eye test, you’d back the Eels, but the Raiders are a dangerous team and we’ve struggled with them. They’re likely to try and frustrate us with their defence at various times in the game. We showed plenty of courage against the Roosters, but we need to address some of our vulnerabilities to become a great team. And it won't be easy getting back up after an all in effort last week against motivated, dangerous opposition you're expected to vanquish.

Will they make amends or will the Raiders get back on track and gain a prized scalp?