Eels Blogs

In Survivor’s classic The Eye of the Tiger (1982), the song begins by presenting an image of a person “rising up, back on the street”, and we might think that’s a rallying cry for spoon-contenders the Tigers. But the Tigers are the Eels rivals this week, and the song talks about responding to your rival: “It's the eye of the tiger, it's the thrill of the fight. Rising up to the challenge of our rival.” In the music video the band members march determinedly through the street, and by analogy the Eels will need to play with determination, because the Tigers are likely getting desperate and know many of them are playing for their spot. What style the Eels could adopt might also be indicated by the music video. Sure, maybe not skin-tight jeans, because it ain’t the 80’s anymore (though, heh, it works more for some than others). But the gritty rock anthem paired with David Bickler’s slick beret befit the fact that if the Eels deploy both grit through the middle and slick play out wide, they should tame the Tigers, who have had trouble counting numbers and preventing line-breaks (across the park). Welcome to Round 6.

Teams

Monday 18 April, CommBank Stadium, The Holy Land, 4:00pm (AEDT). Referee: Ben Cummins.

Eels: 1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Viliami Penisini 3. Tom Opacic 4. Marata Niukore 5. Bailey Simonsson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Oregon Kaufusi 11. Shaun Lane 12. Isaiah Papali'i 13. Nathan Brown 14. Makahesi Makatoa 15. Ryan Matterson 16. Hayze Perham 17. Mitch Rein 18. Bryce Cartwright 19. Jakob Arthur 20. Wiremu Greig 21. Ky Rodwell 22. Samuel Loizou 23. Elie El Zakhem 24. Zac Cini

Head coach: Brad ‘I’m in an interview honey’ Arthur

Tigers: 1. Daine Laurie 2. David Nofoaluma 3. James Roberts 4. Luke Garner 5. Starford To'a 6. Luke Brooks 7. Jackson Hastings 8. James Tamou 9. Jake Simpkin 10. Zane Musgrove 11. Kelma Tuilagi 12. Luciano Leilua 13. Joe Ofahengaue 14. Jock Madden 15. Alex Twal 16. Thomas Mikaele 17. Alex Seyfarth 18. Tyrone Peachey 19. Jacob Liddle 20. Oliver Gildart 21. Ken Maumalo 22. Tukimihia Simpkins 23. Junior Tupou 24. Austin Dias

Head coach: Madge Dead Tiger Walking Macguire

Notes: For the Tigers, Laurie returns from Covid but hopefully has long Covid that ends on Tuesday. Otherwise Macguire has signalled to his cubs that they better start roaring, neutering some of them (Peachey, Gildart and Maumalo sent to reggies), and relocating some others (Hastings into the 7, and Brooks shifts to 6). Also, Roberts returns to centre (Gildart dropped), with To’a shifting from fullback (Laurie returns) to wing (Maumalo dropped), and former-#6 Madden drops to the bench.

For the Eels, Paulo was given a holiday by the judiciary for being too mean to a 5/8 in a tackle, with Kaufusi to start at prop. Waqa’s very unfortunate knee injury – he has been playing very well – coincides with Niukore returning. Niukore resumes at right-centre, where he filled in capably in 2021. Note Penisini shifts from right centre to left wing. Shaun Lane is named at second row, with Matterson dropping to the bench and Cartwright to the reserves. But in the past two weeks Lane has been a game day drop-out, so who knows? Regardless, it does seem BA is playing ducks and drakes, because Hayze Perham is named on the bench as cover in the outside backs. Maybe Perham and Niukore will share centre? Or Perham/Niukore/Penisini will shuffle about? But at a certain point, one wonders if shifting too many positions during the game is really on the cards? BA is not known for innovative uses of the bench, having not used all interchanges and left bench-warmers permanent warmers in several games so far in 2022. Hence we will all wait and see what unfolds.

Observations from Last Week

Eels (vs Titans), 26-2 (W), 52% possession, 80% completion rate, 4 line breaks, 22 tackle breaks, 9 offloads, 17 missed tackles, 15 ineffective tackles, 9 errors, 10 penalties conceded, 2 inside 10 meters, 1 ruck infringements.

Tigers (vs Sharks), 4-34 (L), 43% possession, 66% completion rate, 0 line breaks, 21 tackle breaks, 7 offloads, 41 missed tackles, 17 ineffective tackles, 16 errors, 5 penalties conceded, 1 inside 10 meters, 3 ruck infringements.

Eels/Titans highlights HERE.

Tigers/Sharks highlights HERE.

The Tigers were a very subdued mob against the Sharks. The Tigers continually failed to get up off their line, instead sitting on their paws and waiting for the Sharks to swim to them. The Tigers left side defense, which ran right-to-left Tuilagi, Brooks, Gildart and Maumalo, with To’a calling numbers at fullback, was woeful against the Sharks. The Sharks scored 4 of their 6 tries down the Tigers left-side. Indeed, the Sharks scored 5 of their 6 tries out wide. That said, the Tigers’ outside backs are as reshuffled as the Eels’ outside backs. From the Tiger’s 7 backs, only Nofoaluma (2) and Garner (a backrower covering centre) are playing this week where they played last week (and even Garner will probably switch from the right to left centre, as Roberts returns and Roberts plays right centre). Note, though, that the Tigers’ Round 6 backline is almost the same as their Round 1 backline against the Storm. The exceptions are Hastings and Brooks have swapped, and Gildart-Maumalo (left-side centre-wing) have been dropped for Garner-To’a. It is possible the Tigers are reverting to their preferred line-up (though Gildart is probably just in the sh*t at present)?

For the Eels, it is worth spending a bit of time dissecting the abysmal refereeing performance of Stephen Gough in the Titans R5 game. The Eels led 20-0 after 50 minutes, and then everything went wrong. Here is the timeline of that final, gory 30 minutes. Mahoney was penalized for a strip (48.47) (dubious: where was his hand supposed to go?). Kaufusi ruck infringement (49:53) and set restart for the Titans. Play breaks down for the Titans and they commit a professional foul, to stop play, to request the first BS Titans Captains Challenge. The ref/bunker look back to previous plays that were ruled play-on and they find a dubious Mahoney knock-on (50:32). Titans Try in ensuing set (51:22). Moses is penalized (56:47), then we see a line-break, but the Titans play breaks down. The Titans commit a professional foul (again), to stop play, to request the second BS Titans Captains Challenge. The ref/bunker look back to previous plays that were ruled play-on and they find D.Brown has grabbed Herbert’s jersey and entered Oscars contention by going down. Why Herbert’s own team-mate Will Smith didn’t slap him is a valid question, but I digress. The Titans score (59:33) in the ensuing set. It is now 10-20. Paulo is sin binned (we are 61:50 now, so all that was just 10 mins). M. Rein error (65.24) in an attacking position, which leads to a Titans try (Fifita; flimsy tackles) in the ensuing set (66:43). The Titans were then penalized (69:35) - the ONLY penalty the Eels received all game, while down to 12 men no less - and then the Titans made an error (71:10), leading to an Eels try (D. Brown) in the ensuing set (71:14). Paulo comes back on (72:09), but errors by Simonsson (72:52) and RCG (73:38) lead to a Titans try (73:59). But back to 13 men and the Eels defend the remaining 5-6 minutes.

I think it fair to say the Eels gifted Titans field position with errors in that 30-minute period. But also, the referee made some woeful and dubious calls, including a sin bin for Paulo and two incorrect decisions to permit illegal Captains Challenges. Note that (for the game) the Titans conceded 1 penalty, and the Eels 10. Really? The Titans were pinged inside the 10 meters 0 times, the Eels 2. The Eels had 1 ruck infringement, and the Titans 3 ruck infringements. But two of those ruck infringements were deliberate professional fouls. If interested, you can watch Graham Annesley’s weekly briefing (ANNESLEY R5 BRIEFING) – skip to 14:45 of the video and watch to the end – where Annesley admits the referee (Peter Gough) made an error in EACH Captains Challenge. The proper response should have been “that is not a challengeable decision”.

We can add to these incorrect refereeing decisions, by the letter of the actual NRL Rules, some missed calls. Peter Gough failed to penalize Herbert clearly collecting Opacic in the head, but pinged Paulo for Brimson’s forward momentum carrying him into Paulo’s chest. Peter Gough failed to note N.Brown being pushed in the back on a Titans try from a kick, but pinged D.Brown for tugging on Herbert’s jersey. An interesting stat NOT announced by the NRL? Peter Gough was dropped for this week (Gough does not appear as ref in any game; I checked). I hear Gough is now on Special Control Group.  

I count myself amongst the annoying people in more ways than one, but this includes tending to reject claims of referee bias. “We were robbed?” Nah, usually, a loss is not down to the referee. But here, the Eels got the raw end of the stick from a truly incompetent refereeing performance. After Russell copped knees to the ribs and Jayden Campbell was not penalized or suspended (Round 1), this run of referee incompetence, if it continues, might lead to something like the following line from Eye of the Tiger: “They stack the odds 'til we take to the street”. Or, if you recall Rocky III, after things don’t go his way (Mickey dies, Clubber Lang wins R1), Rocky just gets mad and gets even.

That said, it says something about the Eels’ character that they did not toss it in, kept turning up, despite losing players to injury and the bin and effectively playing against 14, and won the game. That is the character the Eels will need to avoid mid-season slumps and go that extra mile come finals time. For me, this point about character is one possible answer to a question HOE and I wanted to pose to all the mad hatter Eels fans:

Oh no, it’s one of those ‘the-Eels-should-win-this’ games

Let’s not sugar coat this: the Eels should defeat the Tigers. The Tigers have been in the contest in each game in 2022, but each time they try to mount an attacking raid or come together in defence, their attempts to increase their tempo of play has been like the concept of ludicrous speed in Space Balls (1987). The Tigers are staring determinedly at the wooden spoon.

Indeed, somewhat emblematic of the Tigers’ start to the 2022 season, their leading tryscorer is also having a lean trot.

By contrast the Eels are off to a fair start. They lost on the buzzer to the Sharks and have somewhat faded in and out of games to permit their opposition to get back into the contest. But in the end #allwinsmatter and the Eels are 4 from 5, defeated the Storm in Melbourne to send a message, and sit 4^th on the ladder. And in some ways 4 is the Eels’ magic number, having won 4 premierships in the club’s history, and more recently, going 4 wins in a row was a sign of good health.

Moreover, the Eels have good form against the Tigers.

Where will this specific game be won or lost? What do some stats suggest to you?

Note the Eels sit in the Top 4 across all attacking statistics, befitting their league-leading ‘points for’ tally. But the Eels have also been plagued by some defensive fragility. Having led the league for missed tackled up to Round 3 (43 per game), the Eels halved their missed tackle and inefficient tackle counts in Rounds 4 and 5. Yet, if going by average missed tackles per game, the Eels are second worst: 163, or 32.6 per game over 5 Rounds. The Roosters are worse (32.8) and the Dragons, Warriors and broncos are close (all 31.4). Still, the Eels’ defence has been better in Rounds 4 and 5, and this downward trend in missed and ineffective tackles must of course continue if the Eels truly want to get serious about their title aspirations. Note the Panthers are considered the defensive benchmark, and they miss 28.4 tackles per game.

The Tigers have the second best missed tackle average per game (25.8), which means we must look at things like line-breaks and offloads permitted, and above you can see that the Tigers are frequently not making their defensive assignments. The Tigers do not so much as miss tackles as just not be there in the first place. Note HOE and I need to colour code the defensive and attacking stats differently as the good/bad runs opposing ways (will fix this in future rounds!).

Fortunately, for the Eels, the Eels’ right hand side defensive frailty (where we concede 63% of our tries) might risk minimal exposure, given the Tigers are poor attackers both left and right side of the field.

The Bottom Line

Everyone always says games will be won or lost in their forwards. Without denying the wisdom of that remark, maybe the Eels-Tigers game will be won or lost in the halves? The Tigers have switched Hastings to #7 and Brooks to #6, and clearly want Hastings to run the show and Brooks to run the ball more. Will this work? Enough to cause an upset?

By contrast, The Eels halves are finding a groove in 2022 that has not quite been seen before. Much of this comes down to Dylan Brown, who is hopefully fulfilling the undoubted potential everyone sees but which has not always been on display enough. Notably, after 5 rounds Moses and D. Brown are 1^st (10) and 2^nd (6) respectively for try assists, 2^nd (5) and 8^th (4) for linebreak assists and have scored 3 and 2 tries each. The Eels are attacking threats either side of the field, with both halves running the ball well and manufacturing solo tries to boot.

Last game against the Tigers, won handsomely by the Eels, three players were sin binned (Blore 43^rd minute, Sivo 53^rd minute, and Papali’i in the 72^nd minute). If you recall, RCG was hit and the referee took no action, so Papali’i seemed to take it upon himself to return the favour. The game was free-flowing in the sense the Eels scored 40 points, but also marred by a well-beaten Tigers engaging in spoling tactics.

Possibly, given the way the Eels have been on the wrong end of some dubious refereeing over the opening rounds, and given the fact the Tigers will most likely play desperate football, this contest might thus be decided by which set of halves keeps their team heading in the right direction? For the Eels, they just must keep showing character, ignoring bad calls and the spoiling tactics of some opposition teams. Tigers might roar, but Eels are high voltage, and the only stunning this round should be the Eels’ shocking the poor tiger cubs. Or as Survivor sang:

“Rising up straight to the top
Had the guts, got the glory
Went the distance, now I'm not going to stop
Just an Eel and his will to survive”