Eels Blogs

“Sir, I just don't have a good feeling about this one”, Private Reiben (Edward Burns) tells Captain Miller (Tom Hanks).

“When was the last time you felt good about anything?”, Miller retorts, in 1998’s Saving Private Ryan, in the middle of their mission to find Private Ryan (Matt Damon). 

After yet another loss last week, going down 28-20 to the Roosters, that just about sums up the feeling of many Eels fans, outside the Hugos. Huggers, Unicorns, Glass-half-full, Optimists, whom are more Miller than Reiben. Especially the ones, like me, who have been following them for over four decades that get the Hugo beaten out of us. We get used to disappointment, and flocking together with fists in the air.

Though the media still refer to us as "heavyweights",  Sportbet doesn't feel good about us either. This bookmaker has us at $36, and 11th in their pecking order of contenders, more regressing pretenders, even below the improved Warriors and Dogs ($31).

The Eels have just ended the five-horror weeks of battle against some of the leading sides with little to show for it; except hope. 

And on the bright side, it could be worse. We could be the West Tigers ($326); skinned alive and embarrassed 46-12 by the Broncos last week.

They are sporting a second consecutive season with a 0-5 start in last place, for a first since 1969, despite a buying spree of marquees in 2023. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

But, let's not forget it was in round six's Easter Monday last year they also broke their drought against us, to win the grand final, 21-20, with a Hastings field goal six seconds from the full-time siren. 

Notwithstanding those six seconds, we have a great record against the Tigers. They are Arthur's Easter bunnies.

 The Tigers are staring down the barrel of 11-straight losses to add to their worst losing streak (10 games) in their 23 year history. 

Teams

Easter weekend, Monday 10 April, Accor Stadium, 4.00pm AEDT

Eels team: 1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Sean Russell 5. Haze Dunster 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Josh Hodgson 10. Wiremu Greig 11. Shaun Lane 12. Bryce Cartwright 13. Ryan Matterson 14. J’maine Hopgood 15. Brendan Hands 16. Jack Murchie 17. Makahesi Makatoa 18. Jakob Arthur 19. Matt Doorey 20. Ofahiki Ogden 21. Ky Rodwell 22. Waqa Blake

Head Coach: Bradley “Always Shiny Bush-Rock” Arthur.

Tigers team: 1. Charlie Staines 2. Asu Kepaoa 3. Brent Naden 4. Starford To’a 5. Junior Tupou 6. Adam Doueihi 7. Luke Brooks 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Apisai Koroisau 10. David Klemmer 11. Isaiah Papali’i 12. John Bateman 13. Fonua Pole 14. Jake Simpkin 15. Alex Twal 16. Joe Ofahengaue 17. Shawn Blore 18. Justin Matamua 19. Alex Seyfarth 20. Brandon Wakeham 21. Ruatapu Ngatikaura 22. Daine Laurie

Head Coach: Tim “Forever Young” Sheens and the Tigers' Royal Family of Rock Stars - Benji and Robbie Farah-Williams.

Do we deserve two points for the bye?

Papali’i comes up against us for the first time. Will he regret the move (or has he already)? Another big question: when will Hands come on to relieve Hodgson?

Lane is a big in for us that will add some firepower out in the edges.

To make way, Matterson goes to lock and Hopgone drops to the bench to be more of an impact player than a workhorse taking the initial heat of the game. Doorey makes way and drops out of the 17 to the extended reserves. Junior Paulo has another week on his suspension. Even though Wiremu Greig looked to be blowing the big ones with the lungs of an accomplished chain smoker, after a minute and a half, he did extraordinarily well and provided a bit of much-needed aggression with his ongoing battle with Roosters hardman JWH last week.

Joe Ofahengaue comes into the 17 off the bench to add some starch for the Tigers. Good move.

Both teams have new-look backlines. Haze Dunster comes in on the wing for Bailey Simonsson (suspended) while Sean Russell replaces the much-maligned (by fans) Waqa Blake in the centres. The Forbes Ferrari, Stains, comes in for Doueihi who moves back to the halves to partner with the much-maligned Brooks. Doueihi is better suited in the halves: it’s his more natural position.

11-straight losses

Referee: Ben Cummins.

The Eels have won 6 of the last 7 under Ben Cummins, seventeen-year 463-NRL game veteran, blowing the whistle but lost the last one at Accor (Souths). The Tigers have lost the last 11-straight. They haven’t won under Cummins for three and a half years (since R14, 2019 v Cowboys 17-16 up at Townsville). Robbie Farah was the rake and captain in that game. Just imagine being a Tigers’ supporter. No-one remind Cummins, just in case he gets any ideas of being a hometown ref.

Mondayitis with a mixed bag

Accor, Mondays and facing last-placed bottom dwellers doesn’t bring the sweetest of memories.

Think Easter Monday R6, 2022 at Commbank. A 21-20 loss to the basketcase Tigers who were then coming last and ended up winning the spoon last year.

Think Monday R14, 2022 at Accor Stadium (this ground). A 34-4 demoralising loss to the Dogs, who were also last placed at the time.

Accor stadium has also been a mixed bag, especially on Mondays recently.

On the one hand, we've lost the last four-straight at this ground, and last won two years ago.

But, let's put a positive spin on it. It's the Tigers we're up against.

We last played the Tigers here in R4, 2021 and won 36-22.

We’ve got a great record here against them here, winning 6 of the last 8 at this ground.

Additionally, we haven’t lost against the Tigers here for over five years. Not since Benji Marshall was playing at six (R4, 2018, in a 30-20 loss).

Glimmers of Hope: The Big Five

Although we’ve had our worst start since our spoon-winning 2018 annus horribilis, we’ve managed to make the finals after a 1-5 start. Five times.

Perhaps, there is hope. At least of a finals appearance, even if it may involve limping our way into the top-eight after a few minefields on half a leg.

Another fother factor which might help the Eels is that the competition is very even and unpredictable. James Graham summed it up.

The competition is full of surprise packages. Who knows who’s going to beat who.

James Graham on the Monday Scrum, 3 April 2023

Essentially, the Eels are two wins out of being close to the top four, and only the Broncos are undefeated. 

Positive spins, front-loaded

In last week's press conference, Brad Arthur put a positive spin on yet another loss leaving us 1 from 5.

(I'm) very happy with the effort and the fight and the team. We've had it for the five games. I know it doesn't look great , one win from the five games , but ...

I feel like our effort and attitude the first five rounds this year is better than what it was last year... It's how we finished last year with our attitude and that's we've picked up where we've left off.

Arthur at R5's pressor conference after the Roosters' loss

A comparison of the stats from the first five games of 2022 (4th on the ladder after round five) v 2023 (15th) show mixed results.

Obviously, in the big picture, it's not pretty: we're scoring less (30% down), and conceding more (19.2% up) at the same time.

Ironically, although many fans are voicing their concerns over costly missed tackles, the overall missed tackle count this year is down (by around 15%) on last year even though we're making more tackles (almost 10% more).

We're also conceding almost half as many linebreaks as we did last year over the first five rounds (against arguably worse opposition).

Errors are up as expected, but penalties conceded are level somewhat surprisingly.

However, one of the biggest issues last year, besides inconsistency - being week on, week off, half on, half off - was the Eels defence, statistically, the worst of all the finalists.

Some worrying defensive trends are continuing this year.

Just like last year, we’re still conceding lots of metres and linebreaks: more than we're making.

We're fourth in run metres made (behind the Broncos, Tigers, Sharks), but conceding more metres than we're making (1811m v 1863m).

We're also conceding more linebreaks than we're making (3.8 v 4.4).

However, the eye test over the first five weeks shows some positive signs and fight - in between some worrying lapses (including effort areas) and poor footy decision-making.

Some Fight

Last week, at times, the Eels scrambling defence was desperate and outstanding for large periods in the game, defending for large periods of time with 12 men (two sin bins) on the goal line. The Roosters at times had repeat sets on our goal line and found it difficult to crack our defence.

Radley is over the line and inches from scoring. Gutherson saves an almost certain try, once again. The man who may not have all the x-factors (or even sex appeal to the average bloke), but he has S-factor: he saves tries for fun, and sets up the defence.

Hodgson put plenty of pressure on the ball carriers early on, even if he struggled later on (and isn't an 80 minute rake anymore).

Athough Moses' made a game-high number of missed tackles last week, some of his defence was aggressive and he saved a try here with some outstanding cover defence.

Without some of these desperate acts, the Eels quite easily could have lost to the Roosters by a margin of 20 points or more.

There are symptoms that some improvements in our defence and more cohesion might eventuate if we can eliminate some critical lapses. 

Also, something we're doing a lot more of this year, seems to be driving back the ball-carrier in a gang tackle.

Arthur, too, believes that we have just had some "really costly periods" (lapses) and that the light at the end of the tunnel may not be far away.

 We've just got to get on top of some football things, and as soon as we do that we'll be right.

Brad Arthur 

All in all, it shows mentally they’re not out of the fight.

The courageous Panthers' win, two week ago, is further evidence of that. A game we expected to build some confidence from.

And perhaps, one we get our act together and find ways to win games, there is some burning desire for atonement for last year's lost granny. Redemption. And an up yours to the naysayers.

But, let's not count our chickens until we see some wins on the board.

Bottom Line

The Tigers are a rabble, at the moment, in their worst losing streak in their history, and are even less cohesive with and without the ball than us.

To quote Tom Hanks in Saving Private Ryan: "F*cked up beyond all recognition". Well, not quite, we're used to a Tigers' FUBAR and there is a sound argument to suggest they've regressed.

Attacking wise they’re the worst in the competition (despite being second for average run metres) and almost the worst defensively.

Statistically, though, in terms of average points scored and conceded per game - the Eels are not that much better with a mid-range attack (10th) and poor defence (13th).

Notwithstanding that, form-wise, and eye-test-wise, the Eels are playing far better and showing more resilience in between the lapses.

Really we should win this, and win it well.

But, surely the Tigers, after being belted from pillar to post in the media and social media, will look to make a statement against last year's grand finalists.

Surely, they will put up a fight in this game?  A good old-fashioned ambush. Just like last year they’re meeting the Eels after being 0-5, but without Hastings this time.

Just like in Saving Private Ryan, we’ve been through the wars in a five-week horror stretch and will likely face a desperate enemy again this week. 

And this is a game we must win to get our frustrating season on the right track navigating around any wounded, wild animals this week.

Finding Ryan. Finding a way to get into winning habits, again. We don't want to be FUBAR with the joke on the other foot.

Saving Our Season. One week at a time.