The Eels return home after the brave Broncos upset but face a Dragons side desperate to avoid 0–3.
The Dragons will test the Eels, breathing fire, after two heartbreaking losses in which they played with toughness and physicality. The Eels defence, currently the worst in the competition, will come under fire and need every bit of resilience they showed against the Broncos.
Teams
Sunday, 4:05pm AEST | 22 March | Commbank Staidum, Parramatta
Sportsbet: Eels $2.84, Dragons $2.84 – an Eels' win is currently, as of Monday, rated the most expected result of the round.
The Eels have also drifted in premiership betting, blowing out from $23 to $51, now sitting fifth-last in the market.
Weather: Expected to be partly cloudy, humid, 25°C, windy
Last Week
Eels: 1. Isaiah Iongi 2. Bailey Simonsson 20. Jordan Samrani 4. Sean Russell 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Jonah Pezet 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Jack Williams 9. Ryley Smith 10. Junior Paulo 11. Kelma Tuilagi 12. Kitione Kautoga 13. Jack de Belin
Bench: 14. Dylan Walker 15. Sam Tuivaiti 16. Matt Doorey 17. Tallyn Da Silva 18. Charlie Guymer (unused) 19. Joash Papali’i (unused)
Cut: 3. Viliami Penisini (groin) 22. Luca Moretti 21. Brian Kelly
Outs: J'maine Hopgood (suspended, Round 3), Ronald Volkman (quad, Round 3), Arthur Miller-Stephen (ACL, 2026)
Head Coach: Jason Ryles
Dragons: 1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Christian Tuipulotu 3. Moses Suli 4. Valentine Holmes 5. Setu Tu 6. Kyle Flanagan 7. Daniel Atkinson 8. Emre Guler 9. Damien Cook 10. Toby Couchman 11. Luciano Leilua 12. Jaydn Su'A 13. Hame Sele
Bench: 14. Hamish Stewart 15. Josh Kerr 16. Blake Lawrie (unused) 17. Ryan Couchman 18. Lyhkan King-Togia (unused) 19. Mathew Feagai
Cut: 20. Jacob Halangahu 22. Tyrell Sloan 19. David Fale
Outs: Jacob Liddle (hamstring, expected return Round 3), Nathan Lawson (foot, expected return Round 4), Dylan Egan (ACL, expected return Round 8), Daniel Atkinson (ankle, return TBC), Kyle Flanagan (ankle, return TBC)
Head Coach: Shane Flanagan
Ryles needs to make a decision whether to keep Kelma Tuilagi as a starting edge after a two-try career performance against the Broncos or push him back to the bench. It is likely Hopgood will go back to the middle, either starting or off the bench. Doorey could be the man to make way.
All eyes will be on what happens in the halves with Kyle Flanagan and Daniel Atkinson both suffering ankle injuries. Atkinson looked impressive at times against the Storm with two try assists, including one brilliant cut-out pass, two linebreak assists, and over 400 kick metres, while Flanagan appeared vulnerable in defence at times.
Stats
■ The Eels have won 4 of the last 5 meetings, with most games since 2023 decided by 1–6 points.
■ The Eels have won the last four straight at CommBank Stadium, and haven’t lost there to the Dragons there since 2021.
■ The Dragons won the most recent meeting 34–20 at WIN Stadium.
■ The Eels have won 6 of their last 7 Sunday games against the Dragons (only one loss since 2011 over last 15 years).
2022 — W 48–14 (+34) — CommBank Stadium
2023 — W 26–20 (+6) — CommBank Stadium
2024 — W 44–40 (+4) — CommBank Stadium
2025 — W 23–22 (+1) — CommBank Stadium
2025 — L 20–34 (-14) — WIN Stadium
Last week
Both teams were gutsy, despite the opposite results.
The Eels defeated the Broncos, coming back twice — from 20–6 down and then from 32–28 — to win 40–32 in a see-sawing festival with bravery that had to be seen to be believed.
The Dragons were in the match up to their eyeballs, leading 20–18 with less than 20 minutes to go, before losing Gutherson for 15 minutes to a HIA and making five errors to collapse in a heap, to be demolished 46–20 with the electifying Storm fullback Faalogo scoring a late hat-trick to back up from his two-late tries against the Eels.
Key matchups
■ Clint Gutherson vs Isaiah Iongi: the veteran guru versus the rising star
■ Pezet/Moses vs Kyle Flanagan/ Daniel Atkinson (if they play): new combinations showing green shoots
■ Ryley Smith/Taylln da Silva vs Damien Cook/Jacob Liddle: this battle could be decisive
■ Benches and packs: expect fireworks
Bottom Line
Despite the Eels' recent dominance against the Dragons at CommBank, the Dragons won the last meeting. Most games between these teams lately have been tight grinds decided by single-digit scores.
The Bookies and history says the Eels, especially at home and on Sundays. But recent results suggest the matchup could go either way, depending on who wants it more.
The Eels’ new left edge with Pezet could again come under fire and be a weak link to be addressed. The Dragons imploded under the pressure applied by the Storm, and ironically their left edge leaked the most tries of any team last year.
This should be a tough game and a good test for the Eels' character, especially as they are expected to win. If it turns into another one-point heart attack at CommBank, Parramatta’s best cardiologists may need to open a 24-hour branch inside the stadium.
Replies
Start Tualagi on the edge and have him run at Kyle ALL GAME, give him some emotional scars to remember.
I'd be sitting JDB out for this game as the young Dragons forwards will turn him inside out like the Broncos did to us in the first half. Having both Junior and JDB start makes us too slow in the middle.
Move Hopgood to 13 and keep Williams in the middle this week, Tualagi to 12.
Id also keep Tualagi as a starter. Took the opportunity given and excelled. He gets another chance for mine - not a definite lock in long term and must continue to give 7 or 8 out of 10 games.
In the past we could count on 2 points when opposing Saints. It's no longer the case. What we saw in Saints two games so far is cause for us to be wary. They've toughened up and competing hard could be troublesome for us.
I feel better that we are playing at home for this encounter will be tough.
I'm hoping for an Eels + 10 victory. There first home game this year. They should set the standard to make their homeground a fortress this year. They really need to win this match and make a statement. It would be extremely disappointing to have a loss and then face Penrith the following week. I'll tip an Eels victory and Longi as Man of the Match
De Belin should not start. Hopgood should go 13.
Start Tuivaiti and bring Paulo only after.