Eels Blogs

This Friday night game is only hours away and the Eels are clear favourites at Bankwest, $1.55 to $2.40 - our last game of the regular season. Some have suggested it's meaningless, as we can't go lower than 6th place. However, is going into the finals with a 3-0 losing streak good for our confidence?

Last time these two teams met at Lottoland, in R18, Manly thumped us 36-24; despite the scoreline understating their dominance. The odds were reversed then with Manly favoured $1.48 to $2.65. Hopefully, the scoreline follows the bookies odds, again, this time round.

Manly should be tough and Des noted in the presser last round that the team must "dig deeper" and execute better, as they were off-tilt against the Storm.

Bankwest night game under Sutton: 8/10, 3 years, 2 wins on the trot

It was 3 years ago when we last played the SIlvertails at this venue; then in its Pirtek reincarnation.

In that game, back in R22, 2016, the Eels won 10-9 and only drew a crowd of 8,143; the smallest for 20 years (since 1999), during darker times. This time round the crowd figures should be doubled or tripled. 

Incidentally or perhaps by design, that was also the last time we played a night game against each other - playing Sunday football ever since then.

In 2019, we have a great record at Bankwest, whether it’s a home or away game: winning 8/10, to date.

And despite losing our last encounter here, 12-6 to the Dogs in a spiteful and passionate affair, Bankwest has helped the Eels forge the second best home records in the competition (6W-2L) after the Storm (7W-1L). Meanwhile, Manly are 50-50 away (4W-4L).

The only two matches we have lost at Bankwest in 2019 have had two things in common, other than our failure: Grant Atkins and both were night games (R23 Dogs 12-6, R11 Penrith 10-16).

It’s night games where both Manly and Eels having struggled with identical records (6W-8L) – so, perhaps, both may not be at their best.

Tonight, we’re under senior referee Gerald Sutton – under whom we’ve won both Bankwest games - against the Tigers (R6, 51-6 and R17, 30-18). Good omens so far.

Incidentally, we have horrible overall records against both Sutton (losing 17/26, at 30.8% including 1 draw) and Atkins (losing 17/25, at 32%). Both some of our worst referees. It wasn’t so long ago we couldn’t win a match under Sutton to save our lives. We lost 12/14 matches under him, including 7 straight from 2011 until our R6 victory over the Tigers this year, including 7 straight losses for 5 consecutive years (from 2015- R6 2019).

Let’s hope Sutton has a better game than Ashley Klein and Peter Gough did last week, where we were denied a legitimate try (incorrect forward pass ruling) and the Broncos were allowed an illegitimate winning field goal in golden point (marker interference overlooked). Naturally, that stained our already horrendous golden-point record: allegedly only 4 wins from 15.

The less said about last week’s refereeing or public post-mortem by Annesley the better for my health and concrete trucks. Consistency in refereering and judiciary discipline appears to be a perennial issue, both during the live game and post-game decision-making and even in postmortems where there is ample time for a proper review. During his Monday review Annesley admitted he hadn’t really paid close attention to some of those matters in the Eels-Broncos game. Unlike the R19 Warriors game where there was a public hanging and demotion of 4 officials.

It’s at Bankwest and we need to change the direction the bus is travelling – and win.

A losing habit?

The Eels have lost the last two close games. The last time they lost 3 straight was between R9-11, earlier this year, punctuated by the Storm’s grizzly 64-10 massacre. At that point in time, it looked as if bad habits, with its soft underbelly culture, were returning. The Eels have worked hard at their game since then, but it’s come undone somewhat.

Vince Lombardi did warn us: “Losing is a habit”; and that “confidence” as well as “lack of confidence” is “contagious”.

Part of that could be also attributed to a lack of discipline, an inability to score points and execute; take our opportunities when we had them. The warning signs come in the R22 Titans win, where Brad Arthur noted we were our most ill-disciplined all year. At that time, in the R23 preview, I reiterated Sir Alex Ferguson: “Once you say goodbye to discipline, you say goodbye to winning.” Just before we lost to the Dogs at Bankwest to set the losing sequence rolling and then went on to lose Nathan Brown to ill-discipline for a 2-week suspension, which ends next week.

On the other hand, Manly are looking at 2 losses on the trot if they lose. The last time they were 2-0 was between R11-12, earlier this year.

Whichever team lose – they will enter the finals in their equal worst losing streak this year. Not an inspiring entrée to a finals campaign.

Incidentally, we have lost more games to Manly than any other team in our history (56W-5D-91L from 152 games) and played them the second most times of all teams in our history (after the Dogs). However, we still have a great recent record against them winning the last 7/9.

Improving defence, but stuttering attack

Undoubtedly, our defence has improved, marked by Nathan Brown’s return prior to suspension. But, our attack has regressed; there’s been a recent decline.

At R19 we scored at 22.8ppg (3rd best), conceding 22.1ppg (4th worst). Our defence has improved since then to currently concede 19.9ppg (7th best).

However, our attack has regressed somewhat. We are currently scoring 21.8ppg (5th best).

In the last 5 games, between R20-R24, we have scored at an average of 18.2ppg – well below our season average. Take out the Titans game and it’s 13.7ppg. That’s second worst – only after the Dogs attack (12.9ppg).

It’s looked clunky and flat footed at times in the last few weeks – especially in the red zone. However, there were a few positive signs against Brisbane last week. At times, we looked crisp and set up some great decoy runners in motion in the red zone for Sivo’s try. And the return of Ferguson helps add immeasurable class and a winner’s mentality.

Still, we have lacked execution, our discipline, kicking game and last tackle options have sometimes been poor at times.

It’s not through lack of possession. Last week we had more possession than the Broncos (54% to 46%). It’s a game we should have won, but the Broncos class and horsepower lead by Fifita, Haas, Boyd and a few deft Milford touches made the difference. As well as Isaako’s goalkicking. Let’s not talk about the ref again.

Moses is still leading the competition for try assists – but they have dried up. In the last few weeks since the R22 Titans win (2 try assists) Moses hasn’t registered an official try assist since R22 (2 against the Titans). His kicking game, including his goal kicking, has been hit and miss. Part of that has been due to the opposition having a free reign at pressuring his kicking game. They know where the ball will go, almost every time, especially on our last kicks. It’s predictable. Broncos pressured him for the entire game. It was punctuated by Isaako sprinting off the ruck to force a Moses error where he couldn’t manage to kick the ball. Its’ also affecting good field position and game momentum.

We need Moses to be at his best, and struggle if his kicking game or goal-kicking is off-tilt, but we also need to help him by – perhaps by being less predictable. Affording options, to the other side of the ruck, or through Mahoney. Perhaps, even on the 4th or 5th play if the fullback is in the line. Perhaps, Mahoney also needs to run a little more out of dummy half to put the defence in two minds more.

We also need to hold onto our offloads, having the second most of all teams, as we rely on effective second phase play, because our red-zone attack sttruggles at times. Paulo provides grunt, but along with Lane, Mau (and Nathan Brown) provide a different skill set: promoting second phase play.

Most of our tackle busts and a lot of our post contact metres come from our big backline: the likes of Sivo, Ferguson, Waqa Blake and Moses also. We need to take advantage of that even more.

We don’t have Fifitas, Haases, or Pengai Juniors in our forwards. That’s a lot of horsepower. It’s no surprise the Broncos lead the competition for tackle busts. Manly are second in the competition for tackle busts though, so they have grunt too through the likes of Fonua-Blake and Taupau, as well as rep-class in DCE and Jake Trbojevic. They are not to be underestimated.

LHS, RHS, Middle: a brief analysis

The Eels right side attack is still the 2nd best for most tries scored (37/85,  44% of Eels tries) but Manly concede the second least tries on their left corridor of any team (18/70, second only to the Roosters with 17/57). Still, it’s only a matter of time when the likes of Moses’, Ma’u, and the Blakes click into gear. Hopefully over the next month. The talent is there.

The Eels left side attack with Sivo, Lane, Dylan, Jennings and Gutho (when he chimes in), statistically might have more chance of success, as Manly concede far more tries down their right side (36/70) to be the 4th worst in the comp. Only strugglers Titans, St George, Warriors concede more tries on their right.

Manly’s attack is well balanced, left , right and middle, and despite missing their most potent weapon in Turbo Tom they’ve scored 82 tries (only 3 less than us).

Statistically, Manly's left side attack has more chance of scoring down our right corridor (concede 42% of our tries, 32/77) than our left (29%, 22/77).

However, the Eels middle defence is still the 4th worst in the competition (concede 30% of our tries there, 23/77); only Penrith (24), Warriors (27), St George (28) concede more tries through their middle. And we’re still without Nathan Brown. When we missed Nathan Brown earlier in the year we had the second worst middle defence. 

The 2019 Tom Turbo factor

Tom Trbovejic's influence over Manly in 2019, statistically, defies belief. Manly will miss him; and perhaps his injury is a season ending affair for both parties.

In the 11 games Tom Turbo has played in for more than 9 minutes this year, Manly has won 10 of them. Only losing to the Warriors in R21 and the Storm R24 (where he played for 9 minutes prior to his injury). In the 12 games Tom hasn’t played this year (including last week’s where he went off early) Manly have lost 8 of those matches.

Oddly enough, Tom Turbo has only beaten the Eels on two occasions since April 14th 2016 for a LLLWLW record. The last one being our last meeting in the R18 deconstruction at Lottolond where he ran for almost 300m, scored a try and exposed our defence in every way imaginable. 

Furthermore,  last year, Tom Turbo played in 22 matches and the Silvertails lost 15 of them.

Seems he adds rare superstar firepower, but isn’t superman - and can’t do it alone.

History and symmetry: post 2014

There is an uncanny historical symmetry between Manly and the Eels.

Back in R18, two months ago, both teams were on 20 points, Manly were 5th and we were 6th – same as this round. At that time, we had the opportunity then to leapfrog Manly into 5th – same as this round. At that time, there was a 19 point differential in Manly’s favour – this time round there is a 22 point differential.

If we can score 11 points we will leapfrog them into 5th as we could have then.

Our fates seem to have an odd relationship in recent years - post 2014; almost as if our stars are aligned and orbit each other in some way

Last year we both we in the basement, missing the finals - Manly in 15th and the Eels in 16th position - with an odd symmetry when you look at the current ladder.

Then in 2017 we both made the finals, whilst in 2015-2016 fate had us both destined to miss the finals. 

Our yo-yoing seasons post 2014 seem to follow an uncanny symmetry. Whether it's history playing comical jokes or just the deluded ramblings on this author, it's another oddity of the game.

Bottom line

Manly will probably be a tough challenge as Des has them playing tough again, and consistently this year. Nonetheless, if the Eels can’t get up and win this, it sets a very disturbing three match losing streak heading into the finals, and casts doubts as to whether we can see it past the first week of finals.