The Eels are now hot favourites following the news of Latrell Mitchell being an out. They lose their primary weapon of destruction. But history suggests we still need to be weary.
Since 2017, the Eels have beaten Souths outside Parramatta just once leaking an average 40 points a game. Over the last nine meetings, they’ve managed only a single win in 2023.
They have won almost every Indigenous Round (9 of 11), while the Eels less than half (5 of 11). Souths also have the wood on the Eels (3 of 4) for their Indigenous Round clashes.
Both sides come off nail-biters last week. The Eels edged the Cowboys 19–18, while Souths snapped a nine-game losing streak with a 22–20 win over the Titans, boosted by the return of Latrell Mitchell and Humpreys.
Souths will be fired up, not just for the occasion, backs-to-the-walls, but also for Alex Johnston, who needs three tries to equal Ken Irvine’s premiership record.
Expect drama, but perhaps with less fireworks. Let's trot.
Team Lists
Souths v Eels, Saturday, 16 August 2025, 7:35pm AEST, Allianz Stadium, Sydney
Weather: Windy 20-25kmh, earlier rain, coolish 10-11C, 50% humidity
Sportsbet: Eels $1.63, Souths $2.28. Now, Eels $1.43, Souths $2.84 with news Latrell is out.
Referees: Gerard Sutton (on-field), Matt Noyen (bunker), Drew Oultram & Kasey Badger (touch judges)
| Souths: | Eels: |
| 1. Jye Gray 2. Alex Johnston 3. Latrell Mitchell 4. Isaiah Tass 5. Bayleigh Bentley-Hape 6. Ashton Ward 7. Jamie Humphreys 8. Siliva Havili 9. Peter Mamouzelos 10. Sean Keppie 11. Jacob Host 12. Tallis Duncan 13. Jai Arrow Bench: 14. Shaquai Mitchell 15. Liam Le Blanc 16. Brandon Smith 17. Thomas Fletcher Extended Bench: 18. Tyrone Munro 19. Lewis Dodd 20. Salesi Ataata 21. Haizyn Mellars 22. Cody Walker Cut: TBC |
1. Joash Papali’i 2. Zac Lomax 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Dylan Brown 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Dean Hawkins 7. Mitchell Moses 8. J’maine Hopgood 9. Ryley Smith 10. Junior Paulo 11. Charlie Guymer 12. Jack Williams 13. Luca Moretti Bench: 14. Tallyn Da Silva 15. Dylan Walker 16. Matt Doorey 17. Kelma Tuilagi Extended Reserves: 18. Jordan Samrani 19. Dan Keir 20. Haze Dunster 21. Isaiah Iongi 22. Toni Mataele Cut: TBC |
| Coach: Wayne Bennett |
Coach: Jason Ryles
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Ins: Shaquai Mitchell , Cody Walker (returning from a hamstring injury) |
Ins: Isaiah Iongi (returning from a hand injury) Outs:None |
Watchlist: Walker and Iongi.
Holding the Torch
Souths will honour Indigenous icons, with Olympic gold medallist Cathy Freeman ringing the Legacy Bell alongside Greg Inglis. Tallis Duncan reflected.
“[Freeman’s gold medal] is something you learn about growing up. The run is amazing but then you learn what was behind it… to meet her is pretty special.”
Getty Image: Freeman with Inglis after Souths' 2014 grand final victory.
Random Stats
This century, the Eels have only beaten Souths once when trailing at half-time. It was back in 2010, down 2–8.
Mitchell Matters. During this year and last year's rough seasons for Souths: When he doesn’t play they win 25% (5 of 20). When he plays they win 38% (9 of 24). They score more, and concede less when he plays.
Edge Battles
On the Cusp of History. Alex Johnston has scored 18 tries in 15 games against the Eels. He will test the Eels right edge.
Souths have the third-most lethal left edge and will target the Eels’ right edge. A weakness the Cowboys exploited last week for all their three tries. Humphreys may use short kicks, a tactic that’s worked for the Storm and the Cowboys. Papali’i should brace for aerial raids.
Souths’ left edge is also the second-most leaky, giving Moses a chance to hit Lomax, Guymer or Penisini. MOMAX time? Their right edge isn’t much better: another Fox double?
Flying Fox: Addo-Carr has 14 tries in 14 games.
Defensive Trends
Souths have missed more tackles than any team this season and rank second-worst for ineffective ones (nearly 40 a game). The Eels aren’t far behind for missed tackles, sixth-worst, yet have shown resilience.
Last week Souths defended patiently, sliding well and forcing the Titans towards the sideline. The Eels will need to be more direct and use variation, not just sweeping coast-to-coast.
In the Middle
The ruck battle looms large. Ryley Smith has been a standout with Tallyn Da Silva still finding his feet in our systems. Expect Brandon Smith around the 20-minute mark for punch. He made a telling bust last week despite some rust.
Final Word
Souths are a different side without Latrell, a far weaker one with less fireworks, even with Humphreys and Brandon Smith back. But will we see trainers act as extra players and fullbacks? High shots on Papali'i go unpunished? A Moses spray? Who will score more: The Fox or AJ?
Moses’ captaincy will be crucial, leaning on Paulo, Williams, Lomax, Hopgood and Addo-Carr. Also, the Eels must cut errors as that almost cost them against the Cowboys and Broncos or give Souths a way in.
Missing Mitchell is Massive. Souths are long odds. But history suggests we shouldn't write Souths off completely. Add Indigenous pride, Johnston’s milestone, back-to-the-walls fight, and Souths may rise to the occasion against all odds.
Strap your seatbelts on.
Eels celebrate last week's close encounter against the Cowboys.
Spoon alert Sportsbet: Titans ($1.91), Knights ($2.88), Souths ($5.50), Eels ($23), Cowboys ($71), St George ($251)
Replies
To be fair, they weren't going as bad, wet night and the week after BA was sacked. It was 42-26 which seemed flattering to us.
You have yo remember, this is not a BA coached side, who too often fell away after a few weeks of solid games. Ryles will have the boys up for this. It could set the scene for next year if we can kick on here. We need to play this like we are a top 8 side.
If we can aim up for the 80 mins and limit errors then we are right up there. We simply need to kick well, kick long and short! Turn them around - play up tempo; and limit their time in our red zone.
We can win this.
We should win this. But with Sutton reffing and its indigenous round Cathy and Greg there the nrl will be having a massive jizz in their pants over souths. Sutton to absolutely cane us with the 6 agsins and penalties
This is one of those games we should win easily.
In the past, that would equal a guaranteed loss.
Let's hope that Ryles has knocked that complacency from former years out of their heads.
Thanks HOE. For showing how much of a bogey team the Bunnies have been for the Eels! I think all of us were absolutely sick and tired of the Bunnies exploiting BA's defensive up-and-in system, which always seemed to let the Bunnies run right around us on the flanks. If that changes I will be happy.
Statsinsider says the Bunnies are the mos left-side-dominant attacking unit in the NRL: the ratio is 68/12/20 (percent) for tries scored on the left, middle and right. Oddly, the other teams left-dominant - of 50%+ scored on their left side and sub-30% on the right - are all banana-benders (Broncos (52%), Dolphins (57%) and Cowboys (52%). The Knights are 55/8/38 which kind of just shows they lack middle punch.
But 68% scored on the left is . . . are the Bunnies just soooooo dangerous on the left or just really hopeless middle and right? I say hopeless, because the Bunnies have the second WORST attacking record (the Eels are the 3rd worst attack). The Bunnies go to their 'strength', which is not that strong, but heh, when they do fluke scoring it is on the left?
Statsinsider shows the Eels are a balanced but low-octane attack. The Eels scoring spread is 42/11/47 (percent) on the left, middle and right. Only the Knights (8%) are worse middle scorers than the Eels (Warriors tied at 11%). We could say the Eels are hopeless through the middle for scoring but balanced otherwise. The Eels are low-octane attackers, 3rd worst attack, but the eye test says the Eels string together enough enterprising play to trouble even the best sides. But error rates and lack of finish kills the Eels.
Note the Eels concede 51% of our tries on our right side (Penisini/Lomax out wide), where that Bunnies left-side attack will obviously go. Whereas the Bunnies concede 48% on their own right side where Brown/Fox will attack.
It is totally putting the wood on the poor (young) Eels but the Eels SHOULD beat this Bunnies team. Failure to do so will provoke some questions about execution of plays and ability to perform week-in and week-out, as the Eels have been fairly decent since Round 11 (beat Knights 28-6 early May).
Since Round 10 the Eels have played 11 games and their record has been 5 wins, 6 losses and 2 byes. Their only real shocker was the R17 loss to the Dragons where the went 4-26 down at half time (losing 20-34). They fell away late against Dogs, Panthers and Raiders but were in those games, including the recent narrow loss to Storm. And we cannot forget their upset of the Broncos.
Compare that to the Bunnies, who since Round 10 have played 11 ganmes and had 2 wins, 9 losses and 2 byes. The Bunnies were in their games against Dogs R15 and Storm R16 but conceded 50 in R17 (Dolphins) and 64 in R22 (Broncos). Like the Eels the bunnies are last up winners (Titans).
The Eels are unarguably in the better form and less players out.
A loss is unacceptable for the Eels.
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