The Burramattagal Eels host the Cowboys for Indigenous Round. The Eels have not lost to them at Parramatta for a decade.
The gravevine is buzzing. An excited Dylan Brown returns at centre. The Simonsson Shock. The thunderclouds billowing over Payten's paddock and Burramatta land. But Ryles is keeping his head over it all and any scuttlebutt.
Teams List
Eels (15th) vs Cowboys (13th), CommBank Stadium, Sunday, 10 August 2025, CommBank Stadium, 4.05pm AEST
Weather: Rain likely, 55% humidity, 16C, Winds 17kmh
Sportsbet: $1.62 Eels $2.30 Cowboys
Referees: Liam Kennedy (on-field), Ashley Klein (bunker), Belinda Sharpe and Jon Stone (touch judges).
Eels: 1. Joash Papali’i 2. Zac Lomax 3. Viliami Penisini 22. Dylan Brown 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Dean Hawkins 7. Mitchell Moses 8. J’maine Hopgood 9. Ryley Smith 10. Junior Paulo 11. Charlie Guymer 12. Jack Williams 13. Dylan Walker
Bench: 14. Tallyn Da Silva 15. Luca Moretti 16. Matt Doorey 17. Kelma Tuilagi
Extended Reserves: 20. Haze Dunster 4. Jordan Samrani
Cut: 21. Toni Mataele 18. Ronald Volkman 19. Dan Keir
Head Coach: Jason Ryles
Cowboys: 1. Scott Drinkwater 5. Braidon Burns 3. Jaxon Purdue 2. Zac Laybutt 19. Semi Valemei 6. Jake Clifford 7. Tom Dearden 10. Jason Taumalolo 9. Reece Robson 17. Coen Hess 11. John Bateman 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Reuben Cotter
Bench: 14. Marly Bitungane 16. Kai O’Donnell 20. Nicholas Lenaz 22. Kaiden Lahrs
Extended Reserves: 18. Jaxson Paulo 21. Jamal Shibasaki
Cut: 4. Viliami Vailea 8. Harrison Edwardsm 15. Thomas Mikaele,
Head Coach: Todd Payten
Ins and Outs from last week
Eels—Ins: Dylan Brown, Kelma Tuilagi Outs: Sean Russell (hand, R27), Sam Tuivaita (knee, season).
Cowboys—Ins: Jason Taumalolo (returning from calf injury), Jake Clifford (returns from a quad injury), Viliami Vailea (returns from a foot injury), Thomas Mikaele (returns from a knee injury), Semi Valemei (returning from broken jaw). Outs: Robert Derby (knee). Reshuffle: Jeremiah Nanai returns to the backrow from centres last week.
A Parra Hoodoo
Round 13, 2015: The last time the Eels lost to the Cowboys at Parramatta. One man survives that game and plays this Sunday. Guess who? (Getty Images).
The Eels have won their last four-straight here.
The Eels have won 5 of their last 7 games against the Cowboys.
Josh Addo-Carr has scored 11 tries in 11 games against the Cowboys.
Zac Lomax has scored five tries in his last five games.
The Cowboys have lost 3 of their 4 games in Sydney this season.
Edges of Disasters
Twinkle-toes, Scott Dancing Drinkwater, will be on the prowl looking to silence the Eels (Getty Images).
Source: Statsinsider
The Cowboys' Right Edge leaks more tries than a colander. It's the worst in the competition (conceded 55/101 tries). A Fox double? Expect Hawkins or Moses short kicks behind the line. The Cows like to rush up, resembling a tactical train wreck.
Similarly, the Eels' right edge is its Achilles heel. The fifth-worst in the competition (conceded 42/86 tries). This presents opportunities for their try-scoring freak, Jeremiah Nanai. Also, the dangerous Jaxon Purdue. And it might help make Braidon Burns and Jake Clifford look good. Expect Tom Dearden to float with a sweeping Drinkwater.
The newly-formed left side with Dylan Brown back and his partnership with Hawkins and Guymer is an unknown. But no doubt Deardon, Robson, and Drinkwater will look to exploit any vulnerabilities.
Meanwhile, both can be Shaky Stevens in the middle, conceded the same number of tries here. Expect Robson, Smith and Da Silva to have a crack.
Guymer's try (R22): David Copperfield meets Mark Waugh and goes blonde. (Getty Images)
Last Week: In the Arm Wrestle, But No Cigar
Last week, you could forgive Jason Ryles for having his head in his hands after yet another dropped ball in prime real estate against the Storm.
"They didn't beat us, we beat ourselves," he told us in the pressor.
He was right. Despite the obvious improvements in the Eels' resilience, consistency and structures, ball-control challenges have been a constant theme this year.
The match-winning moment of Aerial Kings. Coates outpoints Lomax.(Getty Images)
The short story. The game was won with a "F#@% Yeah" Coates Moment off a pinpoint Munster short-kick ten minutes from the final whistle. It came on the back of a barnstorming length-of-the-field-set off a less-than-urgent Eels kick chase. And where Utoikamanu steamrolled defenders like bowling pins.
The Longer story. 14 errors. Eight of those in prime Storm real estate. A gold medal in missed opportunities.
The Storm did enough, without being at their best. Professionalism.
"They've been doing it for twenty years, while we've been doing it for twenty weeks," Ryles added.
'Losing Sleep'
Todd Payten also felt the Cowboys were fighting-toe-to-toe with a top team. "We were in the game up to our eyeballs," he told us.
"[I saw] a team connected and fighting hard. But I'm losing sleep on ... parts of our game."
Both the Cowboys and Eels are in the top four for handling errors: Roosters are the worst (9th on ladder), then Cowboys (13th), Knights (14th), and Eels (15th).
Butterfingers
| Eels (15th) | Cowboys (13th) | |
| Recent Match-Up Difficulty |
Dark Night of the Soul (vs 2nd, 6th, 1st, 5th) |
Easier, but not super-easy (vs 7th, 8th, 11th, 3rd) |
|
Won 1 / 4 |
Won 1 / 4 |
|
|
Form |
Won 4 of their last 10 |
Won 3of |
|
Av. Points |
16.0 pg |
24.7 pg |
|
Av. Points |
25.3 pg |
37.7 pg |
|
Errors |
59 (14.75 av.) |
58 (14.5 av.) |
|
Games made |
15/19 (79%) |
12/20 (60%) |
'Dumb'
Ricky called his team "dumb" after 14 errors last week. We matched it. So did the Cowboys. An error-fest trifecta. In a wet round 22, let us never forget:
- 13 errors (67% completions) cost the Bulldogs (3rd) in their shock loss against the Tigers (9 errors, 79% completions), 28-14.
- 14 errors (64% completions) cost the Raiders (1st) in their shock loss to the Dragons (10 errors, 83% completions), 18-12.
- 14 errors (68% completions) cost the Eels (15th) against the 2nd-placed Storm (7 errors, 84% completions), 16-10.
- 14 errors (68% completions) cost the Cowboys (13th) in their heavy loss against the 7th-placed Sharks (13 errors, 79% completions), 32-12.
- Of course, there were exceptions. 16 errors didn’t stop the Roosters winning because Manly made 15. And then there's Souths.
There are a few morals of the story. Even the best get punished. Don't be dumb.
'Here in Body, Not in Spirit'
Plenty of experts have written off the Cowboys. Greg Alexander, the Panthers great, was scathing.
“It doesn’t happen very often in the NRL where a team makes it obvious that they don’t want to be here, but that is the Cowboys this afternoon,” Alexander said last week of the Cowboys in their Sharks loss.
“They are here in body but not in spirit. The Sharks are in cruise control and are tearing the Cowboys apart. I don’t know what Todd Payten says at half time."
"This is the worst performance I’ve seen from a team this year."
"They are the most disappointing side this year because they have more talent in their side than plenty of other rosters.”
And therein lies A Warning. Drinkwater, Dearden, Robson, Nanai, Cotter. A classy spine. A team littered with Origin class. Why are they playing so poorly for so long?
Dearden and Robson are two dangermen along with Fred Astaire (Getty Images).
Ryles is fully aware of it, telling us in yesterday's pre-game pressor, "They're a dangerous footy side that can score points quickly. They're well coached and highly skilled."
"We're going to have to defend really well."
Final Word
The Quixotic Cowboys have been off their game for months, slipping from sixth in round fourteen to thirteenth. They can scorch the land on their day, but they own the worst defence in the competition leaking almost 30 points a game. An elite Horror Show. But this is their chance at redemption.
The Kaizen Eels have improved their defensive and attacking structures over the last few months, but struggle to close out games despite being in the grind for most games since the early season. A patience and potential movie where hope is a leading character.
This game could end up being decided by who controls the ball better and executes their chances.
History, form and the Burramattagal Land Gods say the Eels. So does my head. But my heart knows better. Never turn your back on a desperate Cowboy. And Ryles knows it.
Spoon Alert: Rabbits ($1.91), Titans ($3.40), Knights ($5), Eels ($14), Dragons ($67), Cowboys ($76)
Footnote: Stats are supplied by Rugby League Project, nrl.com, Foxlab, David Middleton and Statsinsider.
Replies
EA, Richard — Fair enough, gentlemen. I couldn't argue with your assessments as I haven't seen enough of him.
In your view, who are our potential long-term halves solution? Lorenzo? Twiddle? Or is Twiddle more of a fullback? Iongi could make the transition to six say 4-5 years down the track.
Lots of balls in the air. But we still need a six. If we don't go for experience, Moses will be left flying the flag while the others learn their trade.
At the moment, I don't know if Hawkins is the solution nor what our external recruitment target is. It's also going to be interesting to see what Ryles does in house with Little Pap. Could Walker be a stop gap six in the worst case, while we're figuring it out?
Interesting times.
Renzo at 6 and Twiddle as a 1 or utility
Weather aside this has the potential to be the best game of the round.
The similarities with how these teams play make for an intriguing contest.
Home ground advantage is a massive plus but as you pointed out HOE errors or lack there of might be the difference in this one.
Something the Eels have been poor at even with Moses back is end of sets in an attacking position, getting repeat sets, building pressure and execution.
Against the worst defensive team in the comp that should be our mindset today , build pressure and points will come.
I want to see Hawkins run the ball with intent on his first touch today, he hasn't been engaging the line enough .
Not only does it stifle our attack if he doesn't it seems to be detrimental to his confidence which in turn affects his kicking game.
We need Hawkins first few touches to be positive today and if they are I'm confident we win this one.
Our bench and forward pack is also superior so hopefully they play through the middle until it opens up. Is the weather going to be wet ?
Bup, astute as usual. Don't disagree with any of what you said.
Both teams have an itch for coast-to-coast adventures, but our game is a weak-link sport. Who better exploits the other's vulnerabilities will win.
Mentally we've shown resilience, so we should be up for the fight. But, we've also been up for long stretches without much reward for it. Will we see a relaxing of the Kaizen principles?
The thing about the Cows is mentally something is off, and they lack cohesion. But they are capable of defending well short-term. When they're motivated. And we know they can score points for fun.
For example, they were running second-last after three weeks to start the season,losing three-straight, leaking 35pg. Then, they pulled their heads in over the next month winning four-straight rise to eighth on the back of better defence leaking around 18pg even beating the Raiders. That's comparable to the best defence in the game: The Dogs leak around 17pg. In those four games, they still made quite a few errors (similar to their season average), but forced more errors in the opposition. They've got the capabilities of really good line speed and scramble but it's just not their baseline this year.
Will we see Good Cowboy or the usual mob?
PS: You can see Hawkins gets emotional when he has some nice touches. He has some footy skills. He just needs to believe in himself. But it'll take time. He's still barely taken off in his NRL journey. Barely half-way to 50-60 games...
Great blog HOE. I wouldn't be rushing to take the short odds on the Eels. I do hope they win.
Today's game will be different then the last 4 games Parra have played. Cowboys don't play that in the trenches and Grind type of game.
With Deaden, Clifford and Drinkwater the ball will get plenty of movement. They are always on the attack. Parra miss a tackle , leave a gap and Cows will explode.
Yes Parra cut down the error rate by 50% because the Cowboys will make plenty.
The Cowboys are dangerous around halfway into the opposition 30 mark. They will attack wide alot.
I hope the Eels win and I think DB will be MOM, for mine he has always been a better centre than a 6.
I just need to see continued progression and get the basics correct.
For me effort areas are everything for us to win,kick chase first contact and high completion with the lessening of the errors.You get these right 9 times out of 10 you beat a team that's leaking 30 a game.
Not expecting anything from DB today but him doing a job that's it no heroics especially working with a new combination on that left side.
Moses holds the key to victory today.His kicking game long medium short all parts of the mentioned can be used in aspects to fight off defensive pressure.For me it's no different to any other week if Moses fires we win.
We've been travelling much better the last number of weeks.
We're getting good reviews and today, opposing the Cows who dont like the air in Sydney, we are popular favourites.
We can't expect to get the win given to us ....we must maintain our strong effort and desperation displayed of late.
As i said in another blog i have just got this terrible feeling things are not going pan out for us these last games of the season starting with today . Here we are favourites for today . Have just the feeling we will shoot our selfs in the foot when golden opportunities to do the opposite arise. I'll be there cheering the boys on as usual. And just hope the bad feeling im getting does not eventuate
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