Eels Blogs

The Round 16 game against the Bunnies was an exercise in Groundhog Day projections. We all anticipated a 38+ point drubbing and the result was not far off at a 12-30 loss. Here we are six weeks later. In the intervening five rounds, both Eels and Bunnies have accumulated a 4/5 win-loss ratio. Both teams are tracking curiously similarly since that R16 game: the Eels with a +36 differential (140/104 F/A) and the Bunnies with a +49 differential (168/119 F/A); both teams have beaten their non-Top 8 opponents; and both teams have a 1/1 W-L ratio against their Top 8 opponents. But the Eels have an abysmal record against Souths. Every Eels fan has Bunnies-trauma, with nightmares involving the Bunnies breathlessly breaching the Eels out wide. Specifically, on the Eel’s right-side defence. Or as Dylan Brown admitted in his media appearance, “they [Souths] have put on massive scores … mainly against us … it’s embarrassing, we’re sick of it … not much we can say until we action it on Friday”. The pronoun “it” refers to a thing, person, group, or concept previously or about to be mentioned. For Dylan, “it” means massive scores against the Eels. But for Eels fans “it” is more visceral; more akin to the murderous clown Pennywise from the movie “It” (2017), who promised “I'll feast on your flesh as I feed on your fear”. The Eels will need a miracle but maybe the FRIDAY is our freaky saviour, our X-Files in the pocket? Keep reading if you dare. Welcome to Round 22.

Teams

FRIDAY 12 August, Commbank Stadium, Parramatta, 7:55pm (AEDT). Lands of the Barramattagal People. Referee: Grant Atkins.

Eels: 1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Tom Opacic 5. Waqa Blake 6. Dylan Brown 7. Jakob Arthur 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Isaiah Papali'i 13. Ryan Matterson 14. Ofahiki Ogden 15. Bryce Cartwright 16. Oregon Kaufusi 17. Marata Niukore 18. Makahesi Makatoa 19. Bailey Simonsson 20. Ky Rodwell 21. Sean Russell 22. Elie El Zakhem.

Head coach: Brad Sherlock Arthur.

Bunnies: 1. Latrell Mitchell 2. Alex Johnston 3. Jaxson Paulo 4. Isaiah Tass 5. Izaac Thompson 6. Cody Walker 7. Lachlan Ilias 8. Tevita Tatola 9. Damien Cook 10. Hame Sele 11. Keaon Koloamatangi 12. Jai Arrow 13. Cameron Murray 14. Blake Taaffe 15. Mark Nicholls 16. Siliva Havili 17. Davvy Moale 18. Taane Milne 19. Dean Hawkins 20. Daniel Suluka-Fifita 21. Shaq Mitchell 22. Josh Mansour.

Head coach: Jason 38+ Demetriou

Notes: the Eels have added some size to the bench, with Ogden replacing Makatoa. Ogden and Makatoa are each listed at 106kg, but Ogden is 10cm taller. Makatoa is listed at #10 for reserves, so this is a bench impact decision? Also in reserves is Simonsson at #3, so Blake remaining on the wing is another strategic (not injury-related) call? For the Bunnies, they have continued to have a halves/back utility at #14 (Taaffe)

Observations from Last Week

Eels (vs Manly), 36-20 (W), 53% possession, 86% completion rate, 3 line breaks, 36 tackle breaks, 11 offloads, 18 missed tackles, 14 ineffective tackles, 6 errors, 4 penalties conceded, 0 inside 10 meters, 0 ruck infringements, 0 sin bin. 

Bunnies (vs Warriors), 48-10 (W), 58% possession, 76% completion rate, 12 line breaks, 33 tackle breaks, 15 offloads, 34 missed tackles, 11 ineffective tackles, 13 errors, 5 penalties conceded, 0 inside 10 meters, 0 ruck infringements, 0 sin bins.

Eels/Manly highlights HERE.

Souths/Warriors highlights HERE.

The Eels scored first against Manly, against the run-of-play really, and then did it again, to jump out to an 8-0 lead. With Gutho unable to convert the tries, Manly out-played the Eels in the final 20 minutes of the first half, amazingly taking a 14-8 lead before the Eels drew level at 14-14 all to go to the break all tied up. The story of the first half was the terrible defence of the Eels’ right edge, with JA, Penisini and Blake not defending on the same page.

The story of the second half, after Manly jumped out to an 18-14 and then 20-14 lead at the 52^nd minute, was the Eels finally showing us that they are capable of taking back the momentum and dominating the end of a game. Recall that, aside from the Eels giving up cheap second half points in otherwise commanding wins (say, against Tigers and Warriors), the Eels have faded out of second halves even in thrilling victories against good sides (see Roosters and Panthers games). But against Manly, the Eels’ last 25 minutes consisted of four tries and two disallowed tries (Matterson called back due to bunker-pedantry, and Lane’s pass ruled forward due to blind referees).

Dear Eels, please finish games like you did against Manly.

For the Bunnies, their left-edge destroyed the Warriors right-side defence. Cameron Murray, Cody Walker, and Latrell Mitchell ran riot. The Eels must stop them, or it will be Pennywise viewing. Indeed, what we will see regardless is the Bunnies’ left-edge trying to murder the Eels’ right-edge, and the Eels’ left-edge of Brown and Lane trying to murder the Bunnies’ right-edge. Which half, JA or Ilias, cracks first or most will have a large bearing on the result.

Pennywise must die

In Brad Arthur’s media appearance, he remarked that “I don’t think we have played well against them [Souths] at all.” No shit, Sherlock. Of all the clubs in the competition, the Arthur-coached Eels have royally sucked against the Rabbitohs.

In fact it is true horror story stuff, with the statistics suggesting a 14-37 loss.

Is there any hope? Normally we can say the home-ground advantage will help, but even at home, the Eels’ otherwise good home ground track record is undone as soon as the Bunnies hop into the stadium. Glory glory to yeah go f*ck yourself Souths.

Is there hope because the Eels’ talismanic Fijian Flyer, Mika Sivo, is our lucky rabbit’s foot at Commbank? Sorry, despairing fellow slithering Eels, because while Sivo excels at home, his luck appears to run out against the Bunnies.

Just to rub salt into the wound, the Bunnies’ left winger Alex Johnston does not experience Sivo’s bad luck against the Bunnies, instead jumping his way to super pest when he plays the Eels.

So where should we turn for some glimmer of hope? Not in general stats, where the two teams are not that far apart. Except that IF the Eels can keep their error count better than the Bunnies and their discipline better than the Bunnies, which statistically has been the case, the Eels may be able to get into more of a grinding match against the Bunnies rather than the wild west attacking shootout the Bunnies want to play.

Nor does form separate the two teams. If the competition were ran just over the last month, the Eels and the Bunnies would be sitting pretty at equal second. Compared to their fellow Top 8 teams, the Eels and Bunnies have improved over the five rounds since they last played each other. Both teams thus have claims to going into this round as in-form. The Eels heading into the game without their mercurial half-back (Mitchell Moses) of course raises questions about whether that form can translate in the heat of a battle where each team is actually pushing for a Top 4 spot.

Where it begins to get hopeful, for the Eels, is in a quirk of the game day. FRIDAYS appear to be the Eels’ lucky rabbit’s foot.

It is not just that the Eels last victory against the Bunnies occurred on a FRIDAY. The Eels have an overall good track record playing on FRIDAY.

It turns out that last victory against the Bunnies on a FRIDAY was no fluke, with the Eels’ general FRIDAY good luck translating into Bunnies games too, with victories against the Bunnies on a FRIDAY being the only real bright spots in an otherwise see of red losses. Yes, the Eels have still lost on FRIDAY to the Bunnies, but our ONLY wins against the Bunnies since 2010 have been on a FRIDAY.

The Bottom Line

Practically speaking, who leads at half-time may determine the result. Both teams win their games if they lead at half time. More rabbits foot territory for the Eels is that while the Bunnies have yet to turn around a half time deficit in 2022, the Eels go 50/50 W-L if scores are level and have at least reversed a deficit twice in nine games.

But “practically speaking” does not cut it when the only glimmer of hope appears to be the fact the game is being played on a FRIDAY. Like the (in)famous plot device of the Freaky Friday movies – see the 1976 and 2003 versions – we are all hoping the Eels and the Bunnies switch bodies, and the Eels thrash the Bunnies. I struggle to think of any rational reason why the Eels will beat the Bunnies on FRIDAY, except that it is FRIDAY.

And so, it is an X-Files case. The Eels will win because it is FRIDAY. I will not say “take it to the bank” because even though HOE throws the Sportsbet odds into the title graphic, gambling can go f*ck itself, along with Souths. Instead of gambling on FRIDAY being the Eels’ rabbits’ foot, we need to all think like Fox Mulder. In the pilot episode of the X-Files, called (wait for it) “Pilot” in 1993, Mulder says to the sceptical Dana Scully “[n]ow when convention and science offer us no answers, might we not finally turn to the fantastic as a plausibility?” The statistics, the form, the odds, the convention, the rationality, the common bloody sense, even the science, none of it offers the Eels any hope. But the FRIDAY offers hope. Bank on the FRIDAY. It is FRIDAY. We got this. It will be fantastic. Go Eels!!!