It is said that “insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.” Though there is little evidence to support the claim Einstein invented the phrase, there is plenty of evidence that it applies to the Eels. Parra keep plugging away with their power game, expecting it to beat the top teams, but the Eels record against top teams has been poor. Will this change? Welcome to Round 2.
DISCLAIMER: this is a co-authored preview, written with a regular 1Eyedeel member. Guessing game at the end of the preview!
The Storm started on fire against the Rabbitohs in Round 1, shooting to a 22-6 lead at half time. The Eels were still fumbling with the kindling, falling behind 0-16 at half time to last year’s wooden spooners, the Broncos. The second halves were also mirror images, though fortunately in the Eels’ favour. The Rabbitohs took the second half 12-4 to lose 18-26, while the Eels ignited the scoreboard with 24 unanswered points to win 24-16.
The Storm’s nearly 20-year opening round winning streak is a testimony to Craig Bellamy’s ability to have the Storm ready to go early in the season. The Eels’ opening rounds in the past 10 years have produced 7 wins and 3 losses. But most Eels fans will recall the lacklustre 8-2 victory over the Dogs in the opening round of 2020 and, after the similarly off-colour opening against the Broncos, wonder if the off-season could be handled differently?
As Season 2021 progresses, we will be able to ask about form coming into the week’s game. But it is Round 2, so we must look back to 2020 to analyse form. Since Round 11 of 2020, the Storm have played 14 games and won 12, including the grand final. The only two Storm losses in the back half of Season 2020 have been when the Storm were understrength: in a 0-14 loss to the Eels in Round 15, and when the Storm rested most of their squad in a 22-30 loss to the Dragons in Round 20. The Eels, by contrast, have played 13 games and won 8. But the last 6 games suggest a pattern that Eels fans want to see change: victories against teams NOT in contention for the big prize (Tigers, Broncos), and big losses against top teams (Penrith, Storm, and Rabbitohs (twice)).
The opening 6 rounds of 2021 see the Eels have an opportunity to prove to themselves, and to fans, and to their coach, that they can change that pattern. With games against Broncos, Storm, Sharks, Tigers, Dragons, and Raiders, can the Eels continue to beat the lesser lights but also shine in their times in the sun, against the better teams? Round 2 is the start of that opportunity window.
Teams
Thursday 18 March, Bankwest, Sydney, 8:05pm (AEDT): Referee: Ashley Klein.
Storm, still cheating:1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. George Jennings 3. Reimis Smith 4. Justin Olam 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Brandon Smith 10. Christian Welch 11. Felise Kaufusi 12. Kenneath Bromwich 13. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 14. Tyson Smoothy 15. Tui Kamikamica 16. Tom Eisenhuth 17. Chris Lewis
Injuries: Dale Finucane (Round 7)
Head coach: Craig Bellamy
Eels: 1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Tom Opacic 4. Waqa Blake 5. Blake Ferguson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Ryan Matterson 13. Nathan Brown 14. Oregon Kaufusi 15. Isaiah Papali’i 16. Will Smith 17. Marata Niukore
Head coach: Brad Arthur
Injuries: Bryce Cartwright (broken jaw, early rounds), Michael Oldfield (knee, round 4), Michael Jennings (suspended, indefinite)
The diabolical past
The more we go back into the past, the more serious the challenges involved in securing a victory against the Storm start to look. We all know the wheels fell off the Eels in the back half of Season 2020. In a reduced 20-round season, after 10 rounds, the Eels were equal second, with an attack ranked 5th, a defence ranked 1st, and the 2nd best differential (+110). But in the second lot of 12 games (including two finals appearances), the Eels scored 164 but conceded 168 (a -4 differential).
Our record against the Top 8 teams slid as well. In the first half of Season 2020, the Eels played 4 sides who would go on to make the Top 8, beating the Panthers, Raiders and Knights, and falling to the Roosters (after leading with 20 minutes to go). In the latter 12 games, the Eels won 2 (against the Sharks and an understrength Storm), but lost 4 (to the Panthers, Storm and Rabbitohs (twice)). Overall, against Top 8 teams in 2020 the Eels conceded 206 and scored 139, for a -67 differential.
And then there is the Storm. The Eels’ record against the Storm makes for dismal reading. The Storm hold a 63%-win ratio (24-14) over the Eels, though every Eels fan would discount at least one game in 2009 from that tally. In the past decade, the Eels have played the Storm 14 times, for 10 losses and 4 wins (2 of those at Bankwest). If you review the team lists on nrl.com, you will find that 3 of the Eels’ 4 wins over the Storm have come against an understrength Storm (due to Origin or injuries). This includes Round 15, 2020, when a Cam-less Storm (no Smith, no Munster) lost 0-14 to the Eels.
Even more starkly, the Eels might be lucky to NOT be playing the Storm ‘away’. Against the Storm, the Eels have lost 8 away games from 10 attempts (6 at AAMI, 2 at Suncorp), for a collective total of 318 to 78 points, or 40-10 on average. Ouch. Brad Arthur’s record against Bellamy is just as stark. In 11 games, Arthur has won 3, Bellamy 8. But again, recent form poses a challenge. Under Arthur’s tenure, the Eels’ track record against the Storm has regressed. To be precise, a 41.7% regression. In his first 5 games against Bellamy, Arthur’s Eels won 2 from 5, with an average losing score of 12-22 to the Storm. But in his last 6 games, the Eels have only won one game, for an average losing score of 11-28 to the Storm.
Overall, the Eels under Arthur have never been able to beat a full-strength Storm. Arthur has never defeated a full-strength Storm and never beaten a team with Cameron Smith in it. Fortunately for every NRL referee, their boss recently retired, so is this the time for Arthur to start reversing this trend, and at least beat Bellamy?
Observations from Last Week
Eels (vs Broncos): 54% possession, 73% completion rate, average set distance 42.5m, 5 line breaks, 38 tackle breaks, 18 offloads, 231 passes, 23 misses tackles, 15 errors.
Storm (vs Rabbitohs): 62% possession, 78% completion rate, average set distance 34.9m, 5 line breaks, 22 tackle breaks, 4 offloads, 194 passes, 34 missed tackles, 11 errors.
Question marks hang over the Eels’ attacking prowess, but the stats show the Eels’ offloading, breaking tackles, and passing more than the Storm did last week. The opposition matters, of course. Icing an attacking set matters even more.
Did last week suggest any weaknesses in the Storm, aside from a reduced capacity to con the referee (no Cam, Smith)? The Storm’s right edge, with Hughes (75% tackle efficiency, 5 missed tackles) and R.Smith (66.7% tackle efficiency, 5 missed tackles), appeared vulnerable. But was that just because they were facing Latrell Mitchell on sweep plays, or will Dylan Brown and Gutho on sweep plays also be able to put the Storm under pressure? We will see.
What about weaknesses for the Eels, based on last week?
The Eels completed at just 52% in the first half against the Broncos, but at 88% in the second half. To compete against the Storm, the Eels will need to replicate the second, and not the first half, completion rate. The Eels also made 15 errors against the Broncos and will not be able to get away with that against the Storm. Someone needs to put glue on Shaun Lane’s hands, and maybe apply some smelling salts, as Lane looked lethargic at times (8 runs, 83m, 4 errors, 63 mins). Eels fans of course have nightmares where Waqa Blake is asked to guard the beer, and the entire stash is raided by toddlers. But Blake (85% tackle efficiency, 3 missed tackles) and DBrown (85% tackle efficiency, 2 missed tackles) appear the more secure defensive channel, by comparison to Hughes and Smith. We will of course all have hearts in mouth when the Storm shift the ball toward Waqa Blake. Here is an opportunity for Waqa to show he can cut it, defensively.
What about strengths, based on last week?
For the Storm, it is obvious. The Storm appear not to require a warm-up period. The Eels cannot rely on rusty play from the Storm. Papenhuyzen was scintillating last week, running for 175m and scoring 2 tries, and he will cause havoc if Waqa is not on his defensive game. Munster took command of the team, ably taking over from Cam Smith.
For the Eels, Papali’i was outstanding on debut: 18 runs, 200m, 56 minutes, 29 tackles, 0 errors. Mahoney was also a revelation: 8 runs, 108 m, and 80 minutes. It looked like Mahoney was playing like a second fullback in the second half against the Broncos. In 2020 Mahoney would often receive an offload and look for a runner, who was often flat footed. But against the Broncos, Mahoney’s first instinct was to run not pass from an offload. The more Mahoney can play that way, the more direct the Eels are in attack. Ditto Junior Paulo: 14 runs, 138m, and 5 offloads. The Eels need Paulo’s go forward and second phase play.
A big question, which remained unanswered against the Broncos, was how the Eels’ positional switches will fare against quality opposition? DBrown & Lane swapped from the left-side to the right-side, with Waqa & Fergo outside them; while Moses & Matterson swapped from the right-side to the left-side, with Opacic & Sivo outside them. Did the positional switches solve our right-side defensive issues from 2020? The Broncos’ first try was down the new-look right-side. But to be fair, Waqa tripped over an attacker and Mead exploited the gap. Both Broncos’ remaining two tries were scored down the new-look left-side, and each time Sivo was caught too far infield, once by an overhead kick Milford to Coates and once by an overhead pass Milford to Coates. Cameron Munster will be running at the Eels’ right-side (Lane, DBrown, Waqa & Fergo), with JAC outside him, and Papenhuyzen appears to prefer sweep plays to the right as well. Overall, we will all get a read on any defensive benefits of the Eels’ positional changes at the end of the Storm game.
Though we rightly focus on defence, the Eels’ attack stalled last year as well. How much of the switching of Lane, Matterson and DBrown to different sides was to improve the potency of the attack? If you watch highlights of Matterson when he played centre or 5/8, he lined up on the left-side (as he now does). Lane appears to prefer a right-arm carry and his highlights package show flick passes left-to-right, so is a switch to the right-side aimed to free up his passing arm from inside crowding? And DBrown often steps off his left foot back inside, and last year that became predictable stepping back in to cover defence from the inside. Is DBrown’s switch to the right side to help him get on the outside of defenders, like we saw in his run that led to Gutho’s try (despite the messy execution)?
The Bottom Line
Everyone’s distinctly-not-favourite commentator Phil Gould said last year about the Eels that “in second halves where they have been challenged this year by fair sides, they have been found wanting”. That was before the Round 15 game at Bankwest, which the Eels won 14-0 against an understrength Storm. Alas, the decimated and undermanned Storm, missing 7 regulars, kept the Eels tryless in the second half.
A legitimate question we can thus ask is whether the Eels, on last year’s form, were a kind of flat-track bully? We won 15 games, with 10 victories against also-rans. In the first 6 rounds of 2021, the Eels play Broncos, Storm, Sharks, Tigers, Dragons, Raiders. Going 3/3 if we lose to acknowledged top 8 contenders will not tell us if anything has changed.
Will we step up? Accustomed to the Eels falling short, it is no surprise to hear fans hoping to win but expecting to lose. But to not be disappointed at a loss would be to accept the wrong standard. Here is the Eels’ first opportunity to show fans, coach, and themselves that they can improve on 2020.
Disclaimer: I helped with some of the graphics, but whoever can guess who the author will win a prize (potentially a candle lit dinner date in a location of your choosing; *depending on the author's discretion, toys, tastes and budget).
Replies
Great read once again HOE. Thank you for the time and effort you put into this. It makes this site a much more interesting place and I for one really appreciate it. Cheers.
Onto the game at hand. A journo asked Gutho this week if the Storm had the wood on Parra. Gutho deflected the question as expected however the journo is 100% correct. The Storm have had Parra's number for over a decade. Parra can be flying high then come up against the Storm and completely stop doing everything they have been doing well. Suddenly our defence becomes passive and slow, our attack predictable and clunky. It's most definitely a mental issue, as if the boys truly don't believe they can win or that they have a right to win. The only thing that can turn that around is the confidence that comes from winning.
On paper this Melbourne Storm side is definitely beatable. Their right side of Gennings, R Smith and Hughes is very, very vulnerable. Neither Smith or Gennings would get a start at the Eels. This 2021 Storm side is no longer wall to wall stars. We have the players to match them and beat them.
This game is season defining in my opinion. Win and the Eels are suddenly true contenders and 2021 just got a whole lot more interesting. Lose (yet again) and the Eels will once again be that 2nd rung down from a premiership threat. That realisation may see things unravel if we have a few more losses early on. The Eels absolutely can win this one. Go Parra!
Great Blog! Thanks for your time and effort, Helly!
Good points HOE. Beaking our predictable style with different patterns is key to enhance thinking and skills for players which will have long term benefits in teaching players game IQ. I would like to see the beginning with an attempt at developing players in that area
Ditto....how much time do you put into this prep....have you got templates with match and career records mapped out for each match in advance etc ?? Great work, we have run out of superalitives.
Remember, Poppa, just make it up as you go
Well done HOE! Great read!
One point I think does fall in our favour. The Storm had a lot of impetus to get up for a big performance last week. Firstly, they played pretty much all their games away from home last year and this was their first time in front of a Melbourne crowd for quite some time.
Secondy, with Cam Smith's retirement, many people expect the Storm to fall of the cliff. They would have been desperate to prove that was not the case and they are more than a one-player team.
Third and finally, the Rabbitohs have been widely spruiked as the competition favourites so what better way for the Premiers (hate saying that) to make a statement than to belt the favourites off the park!
Now, this week, they may be a little flat - and they are playing at our fortress. They certainly are a good enough team for none of that to effect them this week, but, maybe it will - and if that's the case, and provided we absolutely come to play, we can knock them off!
Great blog again HOE.
Spines the key.
You want to throw wrinkles into this direct middle 1/3 attack the spine is the one that needs to control and dictate this.
The danger signs for the Storm are no different to when Slater was fullback.Wherever Pap is the defense needs to read that and apply numbers to that area.
How the Storms spine play is how our spine needs to play all 3 last week Hughes Pap and Munster patrolling the middle 1/3 calling for the ball controlling tempo.
The power game through the middle seems to be what works for the Eels. When we go from side to side it just all seems to come apart and they look to be trying to score on every play.
Unfortunately the power game relies on patient spine players which we don't really have yet. Apart from Gutherson our lads are still a bit green. Moses should know better by now but he doesn't. But you take the good with the bad.
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