Both suffered heavy round one losses. Both will be seeking redemption.
The Eels won the last meeting here 22-20 in a Walsh-inspired cliffhanger, but they have lost four of the past five games against the Broncos, who start as raging favourites.
Predicted Teams
Thursday, 8pm AEST | 12 March | Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Sportsbet: Broncos $1.27, Eels $3.80 – the Broncos winning is rated the most expected result of the round.
The Eels have also drifted in premiership betting, blowing out from $23 to $51, now sitting fifth-last in the market.
Weather: Expected to be fine, 25°C and mostly clear
Biggest wins:
Eels vs Broncos: 58–0 (2019 Finals); Broncos vs Eels: 60–14 (1995)
Last Lost Two Straight:
The Eels haven't lost two-straight since R17-20, June-July, 2025.
The Broncos haven't lost two-straight since R9-R13, May, 2025.
Broncos: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Josiah Karapani 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Gehamat Shibasaki 5. Deine Mariner 6. Ezra Mam 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Corey Jensen 9. Cory Paix 10. Payne Haas 11. Jack Gosiewski 12. Jordan Riki 13. Patrick Carrigan 14. Ben Hunt 15. Xavier Willison 16. Ben Talty 17. Aublix Tawha 18. Grant Anderson 19. Jaiyden Hunt 20. Blake Mozer 21. Delouise Hoeter 22. Thomas Duffy
Eels: 1. Isaiah Iongi 2. Bailey Simonsson 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Sean Russell 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Jonah Pezet 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Jack Williams 9. Ryley Smith 10. Junior Paulo 11. Kelma Tuilagi 12. Kitione Kautoga 13. Jack de Belin 14. Dylan Walker 15. Sam Tuivaiti 16. Matt Doorey 17. Tallyn Da Silva 18. Charlie Guymer 19. Joash Papali’i 20. Jordan Samrani 21. Brian Kelly 22. Luca Moretti
Outs: J'maine Hopgood (suspended, Round 3), Ronald Volkman (quad, Round 3), Arthur Miller-Stephen (ACL, 2026)
Broncos Analysis from Foxsport: Ezra Mam has been named to start at five-eighth with Ben Hunt in the No.14, after the pair swapped before kick-off last week. Michael Magurie was criticised for overthinking Mam’s benching despite a full pre-season for his young star, while Hunt struggled witht he defensive workload on the bench against the Panthers and couldn’t spark their attack. “Everyone knows on this panel that I’m a big fan of Madge and I pushed him last year (but) I don’t get this. I didn’t understand it,” Braith Anasta said on NRL 360. “When I saw the teams come out I was like why? This kid is one of the elite players of our game, one of the best five-eighths of our game. He’s had a full pre-season. He’s electric. I know he had instances that happened throughout the year that put him in that position but you had two experienced halves in Hunt and Reynolds, they are both ageing halves now. Get your young fresh blood out there. They missed the jump and they couldn’t come back. I just didn’t get it. I rate him as a coach Madge but I thought that was a really strange move and the wrong one.” It will be interesting to see if maguire sticks to his guns or bows to pressure and starts Mam this week. Back-rower Brendan Piakura remains sidelined with a knee injury, so Michael Maguire has kept the same team. Blake Mozer impressed assistant coach Cameron Smith in pre-season and could be a chance to come into the dummyhalf rotation, especially as Cory Paix, while solid with service and in defence is not as creative as Hunt and Mozer.
Eels' Analysis from Foxsport: Winger Josh Addo-Carr (thumb) is back on deck with Sean Russell shifting to centre and Brian Kelly dropping to the extended bench. Jack Williams shifts to prop for the suspended J’maine Hopgood, with Kelma Tuilagi starting in the back row. Sam Tuivaiti has again been named in No.15 and will be hoping for game time after Joash Papalii was sent into the Storm game instead when Isaiah Iongi left the field for a HIA. Addo-Carr is a massive boost since the Eels didn’t look like scoring against the Storm and have lost Zac Lomax to rugby union. Will Penisini needs to step up as his development has stalled in the last couple of years and he has been linked to a switch to rugby union. The pressure is on Jonah Pezet to deliver at five-eighth because he is only there for one season before joining the Broncos and Joash Papalii was doing well last season in the No.6 jersey and is a long-term option for the club. Pezet will be a marked man up against his 2027 club in the Broncos this weekend, who will be desperate to bounce back. Tallyn Da Silva also needs to raise his game because he left the Tigers for a starting opportunity but has so far been unable to unseat Ryle Smith at the Eels. Parramatta need a lot more from their middles and recruit Jack de Belin because they looked out of their depth against the Storm and they may be one or two class forwards short of competing for the finals this season.
Last Week
Both sides struggled with ball control and effectively self-sabotaged their performances.
Broncos vs Panthers
Lost 26–0 | Errors: 19–14 | Completions: 22/36 (61%)
Eels vs Storm
Lost 52–4 | Errors: 17–8 | Completions: 24/38 (63%)
If the Eels are subject to the disgraceful refereeing endured against the Storm last Thursday where the run of restarts, penalties, and decisions went against them for large bulks of the game to manage momentum we could see another blowout score due to fatigue and errors. Even the Roosters conceded 40 points against the Warriors when the refereeing was lopsided.
Game Plans
The Broncos will look to play up tempo game and bully us. Much like the Storm did. They will look to roll us through the middle before shifting quickly to the edges, using their speed, with Reynolds’ kicking game probing in behind the line.
Reeece Walsh will be key for the Broncos. He could either win the game for them, blow the Eels off the park, or lose the game off an error.
Mitch Moses is the key for the Eels. He will need to have his kicking boots on. Both sides' kicking games could decide the match. The Panthers scored several tries against the Broncos off well-placed kicks, an area where Parramatta struggled badly last week. The Eels managed to kick for 66m in the first half. At times, they tried to force passes and go around the Storm which backfired.
The Eels might need to kick earlier in the set and follow it up with an agressive kick chase to counter the Broncos' momentum and fatigue induced errors of last week.
Expect Jonah Pezet to be targeted after he struggled getting back into the defensive line last week. He and Kitione Kautoga were penalised multiple times, and Brisbane will also attack the Kelly–Penisini right edge.
For the Eels, the key will be simple. Stay in the fight. Get back to basics. Stand up to the bullies. Get back to the form they showed in the last two months of last year and in the trials.
The Eels on-field leaders need to stand up more, too. There was a lot of talk and communication prior to the game starting and they looked prime to go. But not long into the game, last week, they seemed stunned in the headwinds of a raging Storm and poor refereeing. Lost at sea.
The concern is whether the heavy loss to the Storm —"the schooner of reality"— has dented the Eels’ confidence and belief.
The Broncos, as defending premiers, won’t be lacking either. But we’ll learn a lot more about this Eels side on Thursday night.
Replies
Penisini is out for the game against the Broncos, Samrani playing in the centres
This is Samrani's chance to steal a spot. Russell leaving opens a spot and Samrani can take it. A bigger body on Shibasaki can work.
Ryles has seemed to have leaned on Penisini a bit but if Samrani plays well it will make it more on the line for Will.
Also, fascinating that Ryles didn't bother putting in Kelly. Was it the fact that he preferred Samrani on the right as Kelly prefers left? Or more simple he prefers Samrani now.
Wouldn't surprise me if Simmo played centre and Samrani on the wing
I would say maybe not due to the speed of Brisbane but he would be on Karapani who is more physical than speed. Samrani size would work. Simonsson is a better Centre than Winger, he just needs to accept it. He will go back for 5th though under the high ball. Use Samrani for the 1st hit up.
I think Simmo is a good winger and centre. He's just a good 5th option back Simmo.
Simonsson has played his best football for the club at Centre. 2023 he had a great season playing Centre.
I think Samrani is already quite a good winger. I agree with EA that he might be on the wing and Simmo in the middle.
Injured or dropped? I'd be fine with this change either way
Have to be injured, he played pretty well last week and we don't really have outside back depth lol
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