Both suffered heavy round one losses. Both will be seeking redemption.
The Eels won the last meeting here 22-20 in a Walsh-inspired cliffhanger, but they have lost four of the past five games against the Broncos, who start as raging favourites.
Predicted Teams
Thursday, 8pm AEST | 12 March | Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Sportsbet: Broncos $1.27, Eels $3.80 – the Broncos winning is rated the most expected result of the round.
The Eels have also drifted in premiership betting, blowing out from $23 to $51, now sitting fifth-last in the market.
Weather: Expected to be fine, 25°C and mostly clear
Biggest wins:
Eels vs Broncos: 58–0 (2019 Finals); Broncos vs Eels: 60–14 (1995)
Last Lost Two Straight:
The Eels haven't lost two-straight since R17-20, June-July, 2025.
The Broncos haven't lost two-straight since R9-R13, May, 2025.
Broncos: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Josiah Karapani 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Gehamat Shibasaki 5. Deine Mariner 6. Ezra Mam 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Corey Jensen 9. Cory Paix 10. Payne Haas 11. Jack Gosiewski 12. Jordan Riki 13. Patrick Carrigan 14. Ben Hunt 15. Xavier Willison 16. Ben Talty 17. Aublix Tawha 18. Grant Anderson 19. Jaiyden Hunt 20. Blake Mozer 21. Delouise Hoeter 22. Thomas Duffy
Eels: 1. Isaiah Iongi 2. Bailey Simonsson 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Sean Russell 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Jonah Pezet 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Jack Williams 9. Ryley Smith 10. Junior Paulo 11. Kelma Tuilagi 12. Kitione Kautoga 13. Jack de Belin 14. Dylan Walker 15. Sam Tuivaiti 16. Matt Doorey 17. Tallyn Da Silva 18. Charlie Guymer 19. Joash Papali’i 20. Jordan Samrani 21. Brian Kelly 22. Luca Moretti
Outs: J'maine Hopgood (suspended, Round 3), Ronald Volkman (quad, Round 3), Arthur Miller-Stephen (ACL, 2026)
Broncos Analysis from Foxsport: Ezra Mam has been named to start at five-eighth with Ben Hunt in the No.14, after the pair swapped before kick-off last week. Michael Magurie was criticised for overthinking Mam’s benching despite a full pre-season for his young star, while Hunt struggled witht he defensive workload on the bench against the Panthers and couldn’t spark their attack. “Everyone knows on this panel that I’m a big fan of Madge and I pushed him last year (but) I don’t get this. I didn’t understand it,” Braith Anasta said on NRL 360. “When I saw the teams come out I was like why? This kid is one of the elite players of our game, one of the best five-eighths of our game. He’s had a full pre-season. He’s electric. I know he had instances that happened throughout the year that put him in that position but you had two experienced halves in Hunt and Reynolds, they are both ageing halves now. Get your young fresh blood out there. They missed the jump and they couldn’t come back. I just didn’t get it. I rate him as a coach Madge but I thought that was a really strange move and the wrong one.” It will be interesting to see if maguire sticks to his guns or bows to pressure and starts Mam this week. Back-rower Brendan Piakura remains sidelined with a knee injury, so Michael Maguire has kept the same team. Blake Mozer impressed assistant coach Cameron Smith in pre-season and could be a chance to come into the dummyhalf rotation, especially as Cory Paix, while solid with service and in defence is not as creative as Hunt and Mozer.
Eels' Analysis from Foxsport: Winger Josh Addo-Carr (thumb) is back on deck with Sean Russell shifting to centre and Brian Kelly dropping to the extended bench. Jack Williams shifts to prop for the suspended J’maine Hopgood, with Kelma Tuilagi starting in the back row. Sam Tuivaiti has again been named in No.15 and will be hoping for game time after Joash Papalii was sent into the Storm game instead when Isaiah Iongi left the field for a HIA. Addo-Carr is a massive boost since the Eels didn’t look like scoring against the Storm and have lost Zac Lomax to rugby union. Will Penisini needs to step up as his development has stalled in the last couple of years and he has been linked to a switch to rugby union. The pressure is on Jonah Pezet to deliver at five-eighth because he is only there for one season before joining the Broncos and Joash Papalii was doing well last season in the No.6 jersey and is a long-term option for the club. Pezet will be a marked man up against his 2027 club in the Broncos this weekend, who will be desperate to bounce back. Tallyn Da Silva also needs to raise his game because he left the Tigers for a starting opportunity but has so far been unable to unseat Ryle Smith at the Eels. Parramatta need a lot more from their middles and recruit Jack de Belin because they looked out of their depth against the Storm and they may be one or two class forwards short of competing for the finals this season.
Last Week
Both sides struggled with ball control and effectively self-sabotaged their performances.
Broncos vs Panthers
Lost 26–0 | Errors: 19–14 | Completions: 22/36 (61%)
Eels vs Storm
Lost 52–4 | Errors: 17–8 | Completions: 24/38 (63%)
If the Eels are subject to the disgraceful refereeing endured against the Storm last Thursday where the run of restarts, penalties, and decisions went against them for large bulks of the game to manage momentum we could see another blowout score due to fatigue and errors. Even the Roosters conceded 40 points against the Warriors when the refereeing was lopsided.
Game Plans
The Broncos will look to play up tempo game and bully us. Much like the Storm did. They will look to roll us through the middle before shifting quickly to the edges, using their speed, with Reynolds’ kicking game probing in behind the line.
Reeece Walsh will be key for the Broncos. He could either win the game for them, blow the Eels off the park, or lose the game off an error.
Mitch Moses is the key for the Eels. He will need to have his kicking boots on. Both sides' kicking games could decide the match. The Panthers scored several tries against the Broncos off well-placed kicks, an area where Parramatta struggled badly last week. The Eels managed to kick for 66m in the first half. At times, they tried to force passes and go around the Storm which backfired.
The Eels might need to kick earlier in the set and follow it up with an agressive kick chase to counter the Broncos' momentum and fatigue induced errors of last week.
Expect Jonah Pezet to be targeted after he struggled getting back into the defensive line last week. He and Kitione Kautoga were penalised multiple times, and Brisbane will also attack the Kelly–Penisini right edge.
For the Eels, the key will be simple. Stay in the fight. Get back to basics. Stand up to the bullies. Get back to the form they showed in the last two months of last year and in the trials.
The Eels on-field leaders need to stand up more, too. There was a lot of talk and communication prior to the game starting and they looked prime to go. But not long into the game, last week, they seemed stunned in the headwinds of a raging Storm and poor refereeing. Lost at sea.
The concern is whether the heavy loss to the Storm —"the schooner of reality"— has dented the Eels’ confidence and belief.
The Broncos, as defending premiers, won’t be lacking either. But we’ll learn a lot more about this Eels side on Thursday night.
Replies
I am not using only Parra as my example. Blaize's path was not blocked as he to compete with one player who was not locked up long term. Plus, Brown was also still at the club with options at 6 and Blaize wanted to play 6. His path to FG was not blocked by 6 was.
Coby Black left as soon as Pezet signed long term at Brisbane, so goes up against Sanders with a chance to win the spot instead of knowing Pezet and Mam are preferred options.
So if you had a son, who is a half, that was playing for Melbourne and they had Hughes and Munster signed for the next 5 years. He gets an offer from Gold Coast saying we need another half, you have a player to compete but he is signed for one year, are you saying stay at Melbourne or go to Gold Coast to play FG? If you say go then you just admitted the path is blocked or else the answer is stay as it is Melbourne.
So if you have a player that is not good enough to beat Hughes and Munster as a half, that is a blocked path to FG so they leave to a club that will play them. Example Pezet.
Isaiaya Katoa? He left Penrith in 2023 to play for the Dolphins are Cleary and Luai are there. Would Penrith of loved to have had Katoa at 6? Bloody oath but at the time they wanted to keep Luai and then by the time Katoa left, Luai got a deal from Wests that Penrith could not match. Path was blocked as Luai and Cleary were always going to be the starting halves.
What about Daniel Atkinson? Why didn't he stay at Cronulla? Oh, that is right because Dragons offered him a starting spot. Funny that what would he prefer to start instead of staying at Crounlla where Trindall and Hynes are locked up long term as preferred options. Funny that.
Luke Metcalf was at Crounlla too, why did he choose the Warriors over Crounlla? Oh that is right same reason as Warriors said he had a chance to start.
There you go non Parramatta examples, that better mate? If you want me to keep going with more examples to dispell your fantasy let me know.
Also, you may say but you have to better than those players, well in Katoa's case turns out he probably is better than Luai yet Penrith didn't know that for sure so prioritized Luai as he was proven.
There are no blocked pathways ever, are kidding yourself right now? The arguements i have with BE are IF Sanders pathway was blocked, not if there is such a thing as blocked pathways. Totally different.
You are just kidding yourself thinking there isn't such a thing as blocked pathways. Before saying i am proven incorrect, again look in your own backyard first.
Need to focus on hanging onto the ball, especially after long periods of being under the pump.
Paulo, your job is to run straight and hard, win the contact before even thinking of an offload....... YOU ARE NOT A BALL PLAYER !
He is though but I agree yardage and bend the line first pass after.
I do not think you should be shouting at Junior NOT BEING A BALL PLAYER John.
There is no doubt he is a ball player, one of his great strengths actually, did you not see him playing for Samoa. That said and in defence of your view, there is a time and a place for everything, choosing such is the real challenge.
I want to summate this game as a WING AND A PRAYER...... what does this mean?
Meaning of on a wing and a prayer in English
Hey Poppa, I do agree with your assessment above.
Pezet is a real worry, Kelly has never been a great defender but I wonder if that was more prominent because Pezet was defending inside him, I did think Kelly made some strong runs with the ball though, he might be better on a wing.
I don't think Dylan Brown is worth what the Knights are paying but gee he was the rock in our left hand defence.
I agree with Guymer too, I thought he was most effective last year in the Back Row, he needs to be in there somewhere.
I'm not understanding the love for Doorey, you can't question his work ethic but I just don't think he's in our best 19.
Hope you are well mate.
Your last part about a thrashing, not saying you are wrong to think that but how sad is it that coming into the season we see this game full strength as being hard, might lose but close. To now with pretty much the same team it is can only see thrashing. It is just sad as a club to allow us to think that way.
Try to complete the sets and avoid dumb and lazy penalties and 6 agains. Team should stay calm and trust their defensive lines. No one should play hero and come out of the defensive line which Kelly did several times. Stop pushing passes and they do not have to score everytime they are in the 20. Go for repeat sets and try to fatigue the opponents.
Control the things that they can control. NRL and refs will surely be still against us. Vlandy might have given the refs a standing, blowtorching orders :)
Our forwards shoud work harder. DaSilva should sit this out and have 4 forwards in the interchange. Walker can play hooker if Ryley needs a rest.
Nice work HOE.
Broncos 60 Parra 4
Broncos 60 Parra 5
Where does the FG come in? At the start to make it 1-0? Or does a player who should have went off for HIA slot one for practice around 75th min mark?
-
1
-
2
-
3
-
4
-
5
of 5 Next