Eels Blogs

There's not long to go now. A little over an hour. We're still righfully favoured $1.60 to $2.40 on sportsbet as this was written; and should win this one, at Bankwest, but only if we show up. And after last week, we need to be up and Warriors aren't as difficult a task as Manly. But the way we lost was concerning, and they way Manly won was equally worrrying.They had too much desire for us; and exposed  so many of our weaknesses all over the paddock, that we have shown too many times in 2019.

As such this is a danger game for us, and an upset may be on the cards, if we play anywhere near last week’s effort. The Warriors are not to be underestimated, despite their season; and they have won a few dogfights in the last 5 weeks, which is very un-Warrior like. Perhaps Football GM Brian Smith and recruitment manager, Peter O’Sullivan may help some cultural changes. Time will tell. It’s a big task. We might be in trouble if we end up in a dogfight with them.

Good

It's a day game at Bankwest and do well at home (6-2), whilst the Warriors aren’t as good away (3-4), and are yet to win in the day (0-3); whilst we are generally good in the day (5-2).

It’s likely plenty of entertaining tries will be scored. High scoring matches are common between these two clubs are common, (averaging 41.6 points per game, 2nd highest in our history). Only 5 matches (12.5%) have had games where both teams have scored under 20. And they way these teams are, in being consistently inconsistent, there's likely to be a few twists and turns.

And new recruit Waqa is debuting; albeit a lack of match fitness could see mixed results. 

Also, the refs should be fair, at home. We have a good record with them. Stress: Should be.

Bad

Ferguson is out. So is Lane. Fergo and Sivo have given us great go-forward grunt, being out best for post metres gained. And Lane is another one of our few in the top 50 for post metres gained. The other aspect with Ferguson is, arguably, he has the most pedigree on-field and off-field; both in our playing group and indeed the coaching team, in terms of being a premiership winner and performed at Origin level. It’s the kind of on-field leadership, with pedigree, we can’t afford to be without for too long. His absence is probably almost as ugly, for us, as his snozzle. 

Ugly

Defence. Well, of both teams. Ours is amongst the worst in the competition (4th worst coming into R19), and the Warriors aren’t much better. It's been ugly for a while.

That’s not championship material. It's not up to scratch.

I have not had the time to look further than 30 years, but since 1990, not one team has not even made it to a grand final in the last 30 years with 13th worst defence, like ours. The 2005 premiership winning Tigers were the worst defensive team (10th) to make it into the grand final in the last 30 years, but had great attack (2nd best). Still I like my odds on a good defence. The house wins in the long term: 70% of premiership winners have been top 2 defensive teams. Only 2 from 30 winners have had defences as bad as 9th (Newcastle, 2001) and 10th (Tigers 2005), but they both were very classing attacking teams (2nd best in the comp).

We’re now sitting at about the level we have been all decade defensively (3rd worst from all teams) and 3rd worst team of this decade in terms of winning percentages. It’s poses questions on our long term viability, and culture, of being successful. You can’t attack, build momentum and confidence, when you buggered, both physically and mentally, after leaking too many points, when possession sways against you, and silly errors and stress builds up. But that’s a discussion for another day.

I’ll leave that with Martin Taupau who told 2GB after the game, in Manly’s big win last week, that they targetted our lack of [lack of] lateral defence, especially with our bigger guys, and then there’s Manu as well who struggles laterally on the line.

There’s no point going through defensive weaknesses in any detail, because there are too many; from both teams. Middle, ruck, fringes, in the air; and we need our forwards to step us this week. But it’s obvious who the dangermen are.

For us - Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, Ken Maumolo who gives great go-forward, Blake Green and his attacking kicking game, as well as Chanel Harris-Tavita, and even playing for a contract Luke, especially through the middle and sniffing around the rucks. They will also be looking to set up play to short and long sides, targeting the spaces around Moses-Manu and Dylan Brown-Nuikore on the fringes creating space further out wide for the likes of Maumalo who could terrorise our defence and score a few. Otherwise they could always switch the attack. I’d wager a bet we will see a try or two from either him or Beale. Nikorima’s absence is a blessing, but if we let Roger Tuivasa-Sheck run rampant we could see a few rampant mini-Tom-Turbo moments leading to a few tries. He’s been in sparkling form this year. 

For them - Moses, the two Browns, use Sivo, and Gutherson needs to step up as captain, especially with Ferguson out. And if Maloney decides to run (one of rthe worst for rakes) that might add unpredicatbility. New recruit Waqa might help our cause too. Our kicking will need to be on as well. 

Bottom line

If we defend well, our desire is there, we  should win, as we’ll probably outscore them.

If not, there’s an upset looming in a high scoring affair where both teams could go 20 plus. And the Warriors aren’t to be underestimated, especially if RTS is on.

Don't be surprised to see a lot of heavy punch-swinging in attack and a few twists and turns.