R18 v Titans: Jailbreak or Bust

By the pricking of my thumbs, something wicked this way comes” (Macbeth, Act 4, Scene 1), said the three witches to Mitchell Moses. Just as the witches had prophesied General Macbeth would be King of Scotland if he would just slay King Duncan, the witches told Moses he would be King of Parramatta if he would just slay a big match. Alas, another Mitchell missed a penalty goal to save the big SOO match, kind of like our own Mitchell did against Penrith in R16, and Moses missed his chance. Or did he? All that matters to Eels fans is that Moses starts to ice some close games for the Eels. Sure, the QLD’ers marched against Moses. But remember, in Macbeth it ultimately was not being marched against that was the problem. When the second witch conjured the apparitions, the third apparition prophesied “Macbeth shall never vanquished be until Great Birnam Wood to high Dunsinane Hill shall come against him” (Act 4, Scene 1). Macbeth thought he was safe as forests do not move, but of course Birnam Wood moved because Malcolm’s army carried branches to disguise their assault. Now all the teams in the NRL have moved, so you can figure out that puzzle. Regardless, the real kicker had been the second apparition, who had told Macbeth that he should “Be bloody, bold, and resolute; laugh to scorn. The power of man, for none of woman born Shall harm Macbeth” (Act 4, Scene 1). Well, every man is born of a woman, reasoned Macbeth, so no man could harm him. I know, it is like Shakespeare was peering into the future and writing a play for Incels Anonymous, who want to reason that anything to do with women is pointless. But I digress. Turns out Macduff was born by C-Section – can you say LOOPHOLE – and chops off Macbeth’s head. Now if you are still with me, what Eels fans want to know is whether Moses is aware the true threat to him becoming King of Parramatta and the Eels reigning supreme as premiers are all the creatures NOT born of women: Storm, Panthers, Rabbits, Sea Eagles, Chooks. C’mon, it is so bloody obvious. Shakespeare gave us the clues centuries ago. Welcome to Round 18.  

NOTE: it is still a joint bloody preview and, yeah, we are all in lockdown and grumpy. Bite us!9255888079?profile=RESIZE_710xTeams

Friday 16 July, Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast, friggin all the games are in QLD nowadays, 6:00pm (AEDT). Referee: Matt Cecchin.

Eels: 1. Clint Gutherson, 2. Maika Sivo, 3. Tom Opacic, 4. Waqa Blake, 5. Haze Dunster, 6. Dylan Brown, 7. Mitchell Moses, 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard, 9. Reed Mahoney, 14. Marata Niukore, 11. Isaiah Papali’i, 12. Ryan Matterson, 13. Nathan Brown, 15. Shaun Lane, 16. Oregon Kaufusi, 17. Bryce Cartwright, 19. Will Smith.

Head coach: Brad Arthur

Titans: 1. Alexander Brimson, 2. Phillip Sami, 3. Brian Kelly, 4. Patrick Herbert, 5. Corey Thompson, 6. Ash Taylor, 7. Jamal Fogarty, 8. Jarrod Wallace, 9. Erin Clark, 10. Moeaki Fotuaika, 11. Kevin Proctor, 12. David Fifita, 13. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, 14. Tyrone Peachey, 15. Sam Lisone, 16. Jaimin Jolliffe, 17. Beau Fermor.

Head coach: Justin Submarine Holbrook

Notes: For the Eels, Mahoney returns at hooker, but Paulo has been rested after SOO3, with Niukore moving to prop. Coach Carlo has elevated Will Smith to the bench, to which Will serenaded Carlo “I bear a charmed life” (Act 5, Scene 8). Can someone NOT tell Carlo that Macbeth uttered those words not long before Macduff chopped his head off? For the Titans, their Origin trio backs up, and Fifita returns from suspension. 

Observations from Last Week

Last week (R17) both teams had the Bye. Last game in R16:

Eels (vs Panthers), 12-13 (L), 48% possession, 80% completion rate, 2 line breaks, 39 tackle breaks, 19 offloads, 30 missed tackles, 13 ineffective tackles, 11 errors, 2 penalties conceded, 7 ruck infringements.

Titans (vs Raiders), 44-6 (W), 58% possession, 89% completion rate, 11 line breaks, 65 tackle breaks, 5 offloads, 31 missed tackles, 25 ineffective tackles, 6 errors, 4 penalties conceded, 4 ruck infringements.

Eels/Panthers extended highlights HERE.

Titans/Raiders extended highlights HERE.

Well, that Penrith game was a bit odd. Did you know that Penrith had 187 runs for 1,834 all-run meters (including 648 post-contact meters), while the Eels had 201 runs (despite less possession) for 1,541 all-run meters (including 493 post-contact meters). The Eels also enjoyed 39 tackle breaks and 19 offloads to Penrith’s 30 tackle breaks and 10 offloads, while the Panthers missed 39 tackles and made 32 ineffective tackles, to the Eels 30 missed tackles and 13 ineffective tackles. Somehow, all that good point-of-contact work, and the Panthers worse performance in the tackle, did not translate to extra meters somehow. The Panthers still ran for 2m extra per run than the Eels.

Now, Moses kicked for 784 meters versus Penrith 505 meters, so the Eels still had decent territory, and maybe those Penrith extra run meters are inflated by a few long line breaks when the Eels turned the ball over. But overall, it was a close game and yet the Eels never quite managed to ever have the upper hand. At least the game was more high quality than the Foxtel commentary team’s call. Braith Anasta spent the first half commenting critically that the Eels had territory and possession and were not converting their chances, but in the second half when the Panthers had territory and possession and did not convert their chances … crickets. Or a disturbed, sound of silence?

A hypothetical. What if Moses had of slotted that field goal from 40+ out and the Eels held on to win 14-12? Or what if Moses had of converted that penalty goal on the full-time siren, and the Eels won the game 14-13 rather than lose 13-12? I know, he did neither of those things and so questions about Moses’ ability to rise under pressure remain, and in general doubts about the ability of the Eels to win the big moments remains. But the narrative would have been very different. We would probably have heard lots of talk of the game going for 80 minutes and the Eels playing for 80 minutes. That it was a dour contest, and the Eels never went away and iced the big moment. How much stress should we really put on a 1-point loss when a victory was about one meter away? Of course, as Lady Macbeth started losing the plot toward the end of Macbeth, overcome by guilt and remorse for her hand in killing King Duncan, she said “what’s done cannot be undone” (Act 5, Scene 1).

Thus, while I agree it is fair for doubts to remain about Moses and the Eels’ ability to ice it when it matters, the silver lining is the big difference between the Eels, Panthers and Storm against each other and against the rest. The Panthers’ average winning margin in 2021 has been just under 20 points. And the Panthers put 38 on Roosters, 46 and 28 on Manly, and 56 on Bunnies: the other Top 6 teams. But the Panthers beat the Storm by 2, the Eels beat the Storm by 4, and the Eels lost to Panthers by 1. Are the Eels closing the gap? Can they close the gap? Or are the Eels faced by the same fate the witches told Banquo in Macbeth, that he would never sit on the throne though his children would? Banquo wondered if he truly understood the witches prophecy, “or have we eaten on the insane root, that takes the reason prisoner?” (Act 1, Scene 3).

For the Titans, expect not to know what to expect. The Titans are like the scene in Macbeth when the first witch said to the other two, when asked when they would all meet again: “When the hurly burly’s done, When the battle’s lost and won” (Act 1, Scene 1). The Titans personify hurly burly. In R7 the Titans led the Bunnies 24-10 at half time and went on to lose 30-40. In R8 the Titans led the Broncos 22-0 after 15 minutes and went on to lose 28-36 after half time ended up 22-22. In R9 the Titans led the Tigers 24-12 at half time and managed to win 36-28 despite ‘losing’ the second half 12-16. In R13 against the Storm the Titans should have won the game in the final minutes but butchered a few tries to lose 14-20. In R14 the Titans staged a second half comeback against the Roosters, scoring 30 points in 15 minutes of play (Roosters down to 12 for 10 of that), to lead 34-30 with 6 minutes remaining. But after a Fifita error, the Roosters scored, Walker missed the conversion (34-34), but then Fogarty made an error and Walker kicked a field goal for the Roosters to win 35-34 with 1 minute to spare. Crazy stuff. In R15 the Titans led Manly 24-8 at half time and went on to lose 24-56. In R16 the Titans reversed course and led all the way against the Raiders to win 44-6. Or as the witches like to say, “double, double toil and trouble: Fire burn, and cauldron bubble” (Act 4, Scene 1).

Eels’ clash(es) with the Titans

Historically the Eels and Titans have evenly shared the spoils, but the Eels have turned the tide in the past few years and dominated recent encounters.

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Of course, the last time the Eels lost to the Titans was at Cbus Stadium.

9255888884?profile=RESIZE_710xThe Eels’ record against Titans at Cbus is not good, but again, this has been reversed recently.

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 Indeed, the winning margins in the Eels favor against the Titans has been increasing of late.
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And we have almost nothing to go on to compare Arthur versus Holbrook. But like the drunk Porter in Macbeth, playing at minding the gates of hell, HOE made this bloody graphic anyway. Or as I say, “knock, knock, knock! Who’s there, I’ the name of Beelzebub?” (Act 2, Scene 3).
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Other stats of interest are the (now) standard stats we outline each week, to provide some common metrics that other Eels Tragics can interpret and discuss for themselves.

To get a sense of the difference between the Eels and whoever they are playing in any given week, we use nrl.com/stats to compare the statistics for attack and defence/discipline.

Attack: The smaller the number, the better the ranking (you succeed at doing these things better than others … 1st is good, 16th is bad). Also: green, yellow, light red, dark red is better to worse

Defence & Discipline: The smaller the number, the worse the ranking (you are more guilty of these problems than others … 16th is good, 1st is bad). Also: green, yellow, light red, dark red is better to worse.

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 What do you see when you look over those stats above? Obviously, the Titans really move around in attack. Lots of dummy half runs, lots of decoy runs and engaging of the line by their runners. The Titans will look like they are always trying something in attack. And their attack will often in fact be breaking tackles, breaking the line, and offloading. But where are they going in all this activity? The Titans rank almost last in post-contact meters, which is bizarre with Fifita and Tino F in the run-on squad. But maybe it is because the Titans have the 12th ranked defence? The Titans concede a lot of line breaks, and penalties, and sin bins. The Titans appear to throw a lot at their opponent but are not good on the other side of the ball, giving up territory and points. By contrast the Eels appear to be capable of getting the upper hand if they get their tackle breaks and offloads going, can control their errors, and convert their line break opportunities. 

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What do you see when you look at the tries scored/conceded stats? One stat of note is that the Eels’ weakest attacking side is our right-side attack, where Dylan Brown tends to sell dummies that nobody buys. This week against the Titans, that Eels right-side attack will run at the Titans’ left-side defence, which is the defensive weak-link for the Titans. Ash Taylor defends on the Titans’ left-side, and DBrown could do worse than direct traffic at Taylor. On the flip side, the Titans score almost half of their tries down their defensively weak left-side, because Fifita prowls on the Titans’ left. Fifita will run at DBrown but DBrown is not like any other half and should handle the assignment. The Eels’ right-side defence is statistically the biggest culprit for leaking points, but Fergo was dropped and Waqa switched to the left-side, so hopefully these changes are enough to nullify the Fifita factor on the Titans’ left side.

The Bottom Line

It is the run home to the finals and if the Eels are to be a threat, they need to go into the finals in form. That means disposing of the teams outside the 8 even if those teams have hopes of breaking in to the 8, and beating their direct competitors (Storm, Penrith, Bunnies, Manly, Roosters). The Eels have a tough run home, as was outlined in the R16 Preview. The Eels play: Titans, Raiders, Roosters, Bunnies, Manly, Cowboys, Storm and Penrith.

Much will ride on the Eels’ halves. How creative can they be, in the big moments? Doubts have been raised about Dylan Browns’ attacking credentials, and concerns persist that Mitchell Moses is a flat track bully. These concerns about Moses amplified when he missed the chance to steal the win against Penrith and had a good defensive but mostly absent running game against QLD. How will Moses respond to the SOO3 loss? A little mentioned detail of that Origin game was that Moses switched sides, playing on the right, where he has been playing on the left for the Eels in 2021. Also, Yeo took way too many first receiver passes and should have got out of the way (poor tactics, Freddy?).

It is highly likely this will be a high scoring game, because, well, the Titans’ style is all hurly burly headless chook stuff. Wide shifts from their own goal line, chip kicks from their 40-meter line, offloads in random places. Eels fans will have their hearts in their mouths as the Eels’ defensive system often forgets the sideline can be an extra defender. But befitting our lockdown times, where Melbourne has joined Sydney in lockdown thanks to some Removalist wankers from Sydney, we should let AC/DC have the final word. And lest you think AC/DC is a departure from Shakespeare, “Fear no more”, because in Jailbreak AC/DC dealt with murder just like Shakespeare had in Macbeth. “There was a friend of mine on murder,” sang Acca Dacca, but he said “I ain’t livin’ alone”. Can the Eels march to a premiership and break out of their premiership isolation? Go Eels. Jaaaaaaaailbreak!

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  • Didnt last the whole thing but can apprecte the time spent putting it together . I liked the pictures . 

    Very in depth and I'm sure well researched write up.

  • Most tries are scored on the left because most players being right handed naturally prefer to pass right to left

    • If you had a right handed dummy half and a left handed halfback, would they just stand in the middle of the field and pass the back and forward to each other?

    • Waqa must have 2 left hands then.

       

  • Daz My time is limited these days . Lots to do and not enough time to do it. I am debating myself what to watch to night the Titans game or

     

    • I was going to watch this Tad but I've decided I'm going to wait until the book comes out. 

      • you have a long wait Wizz.Daz has made it a best seller

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      • Don't worry about the book Wiz, Marvel have the cartoon rights and it will be a Wizards of the Universe takes Shakespeare to another planet movie.

        Great effort Daz but I feel your "class" could be wasted on here, pun intended.

        PS Titan's play an add lib type of game, we may actually see Waqar break into the clear in this one and everybody will be "singing" his praises......Sivo to score 4 times and Dunster to announce himself?

        Where's Phil, is everthing ok?

This reply was deleted.

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