Eels Blogs

“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows,” suggested George Orwell in 1984. It is possible for the Eels to beat Penrith. If that is granted, all else follows. How the Eels can achieve this feat must obviously start by not playing like they did against the Bunnies, or Manly, or the Dragons, and getting as close to 80 minutes of footy as they can. Mitchell Moses will have to have the kind of blinder that gets him selected for SOO3. As discussed below, the Eels might be wise to make the ball do some talking, because a predictable attack will be rebuffed all night by the best defensive unit in the competition. Meanwhile, because Orwell’s 1984 is a bit of a bleak picture of the possibilities, Eels fans might want to turn to the romance of Leo Tolstoy for inspiration. “Pierre was right when he said that one must believe in the possibility of happiness in order to be happy,” opined Tolstoy in War and Peace. I know, what relevance does that have for us Eels fans, you ask? Well, turns out Tolstoy offered a means to believing in the possibility of happiness. When Pierre was deciding whether to break a promise to Prince Andrew, Pierre reasoned that anything could happen tomorrow, so he may as well follow the rule: “first of all, drink”. Bottoms up, we may all need it. Welcome to Round 16.

NOTE: your co-writers are both a little unwell this week. Apologies for the delayed posting.

Teams

Friday 2 July, BlueBet Stadium, some western shithole, 7:55pm (AEDT). Referee: Ashley Klein. Or as Orwell would have opened 1984 if he was stuck in an empty BlueBet Stadium during lockdown, “it was a bright cold day in July, and the clocks were striking eight”.

Eels: 1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Tom Opacic 4. Waqa Blake 5. Haze Dunster 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Joey Lussick 10. Junior Paulo 11. Isaiah Papali’i 12. Ryan Matterson 13. Nathan Brown 14. Marata Niukore 15. Shaun Lane 16. Oregon Kaufusi 17. Bryce Cartwright 18. Viliami Penisini 19. Will Smith.

Head coach: Brad Arthur

Panthers: 1. Charlie Staines 2. Brent Naden 3. Stephen Crichton 4. Tyrone May 5. Brian To’o 6. Matt Burton 7. Jarome Luai 8. Moses Leota 9. Apisai Koroisau 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Kurt Capewell 13. Isaah Yeo 14. Mitch Kenny 15. Scott Sorensen 16. Spencer Leniu 17. Liam Martin 18. Izack Tago 20. Matthew Eisenhuth

Head coach: Ivan Drago Cleary

Notes: For the Eels, Mahoney is still out injured. For the Panthers, no, it was fake news that Cleary would play, and Dylan Edwards remains out too.

Observations from Last Week

Eels (vs Dogs), 36-10 (W), 58% possession, 78% completion rate, 5 line breaks, 27 tackle breaks, 7 offloads, 13 missed tackles, 7 ineffective tackles, 13 errors, 1 penalties conceded, 1 ruck infringements.

Panthers (vs Roosters), 38-12 (W), 59% possession, 80% completion rate, 4 line breaks, 33 tackle breaks, 6 offloads, 30 missed tackles, 12 ineffective tackles, 9 errors, 2 penalties conceded, 2 ruck infringements.

Eels/Dogs extended highlights HERE.

Panthers/Roosters extended highlights HERE.

Against the Dogs, it was a bit like Charles Dickens in A Tale of Two Cities: “it was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness”. The first half was the worst; it was foolish, as the Eels wasted their opportunities. After taking an early 6-0 lead after Matto’s 7^th minute try, the Eels proceeded to butcher two clear scoring opportunities. After 13 minutes, Russell found himself 1-on-1 with his opposition winger with 10 meters to go, and while Sivo would have steamrolled over, young Russell took the tackle. After 23 minutes, DBrown kicked overhead to place the ball in Dunster’s lap over the line, only for Dunster to let his opposition winger get there first (somehow). The real story in the first half, though, was that the Eels made 9 unforced errors. Included in those errors was Dunster spilling a bomb on his own line, after 28 minutes, to gift the Dogs a try for 6-6. Compounding the errors, Marata Niukore was (again) sin binned, with 5 minutes to go.  The Eels defused two grubbers but conceded a try which, while due to defending with 12, would have displeased BA, who has spoken explicitly about practicing defending with 12. The Eels went to the half time break down 6-10, and unbeknownst to them, an entire website was in meltdown.

The second half was the best; it was the age of wisdom. The Eels won the second half 30-0. The Eels made 4 second half errors, 2 of which were in the middle of expansive backline breaks and probably forgivable. Along the way, some stats stand out. Obviously, Papali’i and his outstanding 19 runs for 234m, but also Dylan Brown quietly accumulated 127m from 16 runs, indicating BA has asked Dylan to run run run. In the forwards, Paulo and RCG delivered workmanlike performances with 100+ metres each, while Brown (171m) and Lane (185m) terrorized the Dogs, and Matterson … 6 runs, 47m, 34 tackles, 59 mins (the kind of performance for which Cartwright gets dropped?).

For Penrith, they played the kind of game that would have had Eels fans talking about ‘got lucky’, ‘ref helped’, and ‘only kind of convincing because better teams would have not taken their foot off the pedal’. The Roosters came out of the blocks firing, taking a 12-0 lead after 14 minutes. Then the Roosters blinked, fluffing the kick-off reception, and then conceding a try after the line drop out. Their lead was cut to 6-12. Then the ref intervened, specifically the blurry vision guys in the bunker, sin binning Taukeiaho in the 22^nd minute because Cleary slipped over and bumped his head. Note the on-field ref said, “bear in mind he is slipping”, but later repeated the bunker’s “no mitigating factors”. Slipping somehow stopped being a mitigating factor? Except for Robinson, who thinks Cleary slipping means head contact is fine, but Teddy slipping means head contact is not fine. No contradiction at all. Or as O’Brien told Winston in Orwell’s 1984, “sometimes” 2 + 2 = “five”. Regardless, Penrith scored 14 points against a 12-man Roosters, taking a half time lead of 22-12. In the second half the Panthers cruised to a comfortable victory, on the back of Cleary and Yeo, only one of whom the Eels will face this week.

Eels keep getting clawed by the Panthers

Let us face it, the Eels have not been fairing all too well against the Panthers of late. Especially at Blueballs Stadium.

Though at least BA’s overall record against Cleary is good (just not after Cleary returned to Penrith).

Other stats of interest are the (now) standard stats we outline each week, to provide some common metrics that other Eels Tragics can interpret and discuss for themselves.

To get a sense of the difference between the Eels and whoever they are playing in any given week, we use nrl.com/stats to compare the statistics for attack and defence/discipline.

Attack: The smaller the number, the better the ranking (you succeed at doing these things better than others … 1^st is good, 16^th is bad). Also: green, yellow, light red, dark red is better to worse.

Defence & Discipline: The smaller the number, the worse the ranking (you are more guilty of these problems than others … 16^th is good, 1^st is bad). Also: green, yellow, light red, dark red is better to worse.

What do you see when you look over those stats above? In attack, The Panthers (456) and the Eels (436) are ranked 2^nd and 3^rd respectively, with just 1.3 points per game difference between them. Where there is a difference attack-wise, it appears mostly in decoy runs, suggesting the Panthers force opposition defences to make a lot of choices about which runners to ‘take’. Observationally, the Panthers do look like they move teams around on the park, forcing gaps. By contrast the Eels rely on a power game, breaking teams down through the middle with hard running and some offloads, coupled to kicking to the corners, and they tend to score late against fatigued opposition. Two quite different attacking styles. See below for (pessimistic) speculations on whether the Eels typical attacking style will work against Penrith.

In defence, the Panthers (145) and Eels (234) are ranked 1^st and 3^rd respectively, with 6 points per game difference between them.  In defence, the Panthers are far and away the best defensive unit in the competition: 9.6 points conceded per game, with Storm (12) and Eels (15.6) the only teams other teams conceding under 20 points per game. The Eels, of course, looked vulnerable in defence against Manly and Souths, and those two games have been enough to sow doubt about the Eels’ defensive credentials. The clear differences between the teams are that the Panthers make fewer ineffective tackles, a lot less general and handling errors, and are not spending 10-20 minutes per game defending with 12 men as frequently as the Eels. Even if the Panthers concede some penalties, this has not hurt them defensively, so the Eels are going to have clean up their disciplinary act to run with the Panthers.

What do you see when you look at the tries scored/conceded stats? First thing of note is while the Eels play a power game down the middle, the Eels eventually score 47% their tries by Moses and Gutho combining down the Eels’ left edge, with Sivo lurking on the wing. Fortunately for the Eels, the Panthers right side defence concedes most of their tries (40%). Normally that is Cleary, Chrichton and Staines, but this week it will be Burton, Chrichton and Naden. Can the Eels take advantage of the new right side defensive unit? Remember when Waqa Blake gave Chrichton a bath in Round 5 of 2020? They have both swapped sides and come up against each other again. On the other side of the field, the Panthers’ left-side defenders are Luai, Burton and To’o. We all saw that To’o scrambled well under the high ball (against the beanstalk Coates), and Burton and Luai are solid defenders, and the Panthers left side concedes the fewest team tries (28%). But the Panthers’ left side defence is also reshuffled this week: Luai, May and To’o. For the Eels, Matterson is the kick target on the right, and Cartwright too when he is on the field. Can the Eels exploit the smaller May and To’o? And finally, down the middle? The Eels only score 17% down the middle and that is probably Mahoney’s work, though the Panthers concede 1/3^rd of their tries through the middle . . . though realistically this is a try every second game in the middle. Probably nothing to hang one’s hat on.

The Bottom Line

Are the Eels pretenders, or contenders? If the Eels want to be considered a contender, there are no excuses, they need to beat Penrith. The losses to Manly and Bunnies suggest the Eels might be vulnerable to a team defending with purpose and attacking with fluency, which is Penrith with a full complement, but what exactly is a Cleary-less Penrith?

The Panthers have lost just two games all year and, in each game, they were without Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai. The Tigers rolled a disjointed Panthers 26-6 (Round 13) and the Sharks scraped home 19-18 (Round 14) after having the game in the bag 18-0 at half time. After Cleary and Luai played exceptionally in both State of Origin games, I thought those performances could set Penrith up for a premiership run. But a week is a long time in football, and Cleary is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury. Luai and Burton combined well enough to beat the Storm in Round 3, but just how disruptive will Cleary’s absence be in this game?

With all the attention on Cleary being out, Mitchell Moses has a chance to replace him in the third State of Origin game. Literally, this is Moses’ chance to shine. Somewhat helpfully, when Moses gets the balance right between managing the team and running the ball, the Eels are heard to beat.

To avoid the pretenders tag, the Eels will need to show they have the game to match Penrith. The Eels’ last competition game against Penrith was Round 18 of 2020, when the thing most notable in the Eels 2-20 loss was the inability of the Eels to make any offensive headway. BA apparently said to them at half time, quoting Tolstoy from War and Peace, that “the strongest of all warriors are these two – Time and Patience”. Yeah, but War and Peace is excruciating reading, and the Eels played excruciatingly boring.

If you are a masochist and review that game, the Eels persisted in one-out football and got monstered: the Panthers enjoyed 64% possession, ran for 2,274m versus the Eels’ 1,352m, made 7 linebreaks to 0, and 41 tackle breaks to 17 (Eels thus missed 41 tackles). Penrith waited for the Eels to tire and pounced, somewhat symbolically in the final 1 minute of each half. This should be a warning to the Eels that they cannot rely on tucking the ball under the arm and bashing their way to victory, because the Panthers handled it well in 2020 and have only gotten better in defence in 2021.

Though as we all debate ‘pretenders or contenders’, one issue that should be laid to rest is the idea that the Eels have had a soft run. This is bullshit. Teams occupying the Top 8 can be said to come and go, but in 2021, the Top 8 has been mostly steady. The Top 5 have been Penrith, Storm, Eels, Bunnies and Rorters all year. It has been the remaining three spots that have fluctuated (currently Manly, Dragons, Sharks). But any team can only play the team in front of them, and teams can fluctuate in form. 

Looking at the Eels through the first 16 rounds (updating to R16 vs Penrith), they have played 9/16 against teams who were at the time the Eels played them in the Top 8. Compare this to Penrith, who have played 6/16 against teams who were at the time Penrith played them in the Top 8 (again, updating to R16 vs Eels). Or Storm (8/16). Or Bunnies (7/16). Or Rorters (7/16). Or Manly (6/16). I understand this ‘form guide’ criteria is not the only means to assess the Eels’ draw, but I think it enough to suggest the thesis the Eels have had a soft draw is overblown. If you want to check form by using Round-specific position on the ladder as one input, go to footyforecaster.com/NRL/Ladder, where you can scroll to previous rounds.

Or you can cling to the BS about the Eels having an easy draw. As Orwell said in 1984: “Never again will you be capable of ordinary human feeling. Everything will be dead inside you. Never again will you be capable of love, or friendship, or joy of living, or laughter, or curiosity, or courage, or integrity. You will be hollow”. Can’t argue with Orwell. 

We can also run this exercise forward. There are 9-10 (depends on the bye round) games left including Round 16. The Eels play: Penrith, Bye, Titans, Raiders, Roosters, Bunnies, Manly, Cowboys, Storm, Penrith. That is 6/9 against current Top 8. Indeed 6/9 against current Top 6. Possibly 7/9 vs Top 8 depending on what happens with Cowboys. Indeed, it is a run home where the Eels play all of the teams considered contenders. Overall, by season’s end, the Eels will (likely) have played a minimum 15/25 rounds against teams in the Top 8 when the Eels played them. 

What about the draw of the other teams fighting for a finals berth? Just looking at the current Top 8, and some teams have already had their bye so have 10 not 9 games. My count begins with (includes) Round 16: Storm (5/9, assuming Sharks stay in the 8), Penrith (6/9), Bunnies (5/10), Roosters (5/10), Manly (4/10), Dragons (5/9), Sharks (2/10); Cowboys currently 9^th and have 6/10 games against Top 8.

We can look at all of that in a few ways, imagining a few scenarios. Eels entering R16 have 24 points. One scenario (pessimistic) is that the Eels have a tough run home AND they falter against their fellow Top 6 teams (say, 3 wins and a bye, for 32 points). Given the softer run home of Roosters and Souths, and the quite soft run of Manly, there is a risk the Eels will drop to 6^th in that pessimistic scenario. Or as Orwell, a noted Eels fan, described this pessimistic scenario in 1984: “If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face—forever”.

Another scenario (optimistic) is the Eels beat who they should (24+3+bye=32 points) and split the games against the Top 6 teams (3 wins), for 38 points. Under the optimistic scenario, the Eels will probably spend the back end of the year competing with the Bunnies for 3^rd spot and maybe even Penrith for 2^nd. Of course, another scenario (unicorn) is the Eels drop just 0-2 games and shoot for the moon: undefeated is 44 points, 1 loss is 42 points, 2 losses is 40 points.

All up, the fate of the Eels is in their own hands. They play their contender teams in the run to the finals, so by the time the finals roll around, we should all have a pretty good idea of their chances.

Final words: go Eels. Also, congrats to RCG on reaching 150 games. Below is RCG thanking the Eels crowd, and below that is RCG from a photo of the Penrith pack in his time there (bottom right).

Postscript

In line with the the exclusive rights deal that 1Eyedeel has with the team and its associated characters, this week's interviews were with the Stator of Origin coach and new game whisperer.

Daz: So, Freddy, what did Mitchell say when you asked him about whether he was ready to step up to Origin level?

Freddy: “because of the self-confidence with which he had spoken, no one could tell whether what he said was very clever or very stupid” (Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace).

Daz: Winston, you are the new game-day strategy coach BA hired?

Winston: yup

Daz: So, like, you tell BA not to try to ruck it out one-out all day against committed defences, and to maybe have the defence slide a bit in their red zone?

Winston: [there was a lot of technical terms and I had to translate below what was in Winston’s head when he spoke about talking to BA]

Daz reading Winston’s mind: “What can you do, thought Winston, against the lunatic who is more intelligent than yourself; who gives your arguments a fair hearing and simply persists in his lunacy?” (George Orwell, 1984).