Eels Blogs

This will be the 150th club game between these two with one of the fiercest rilvaries that began in 1947 at Belmore. And we have played the Dogs more than any other side in the competition.

In the last two weeks, the Eels have bounced back after their two heavy losses with two thumping wins, scoring 80 points and conceding only 16 points, three tries, albeit against the bottom-eight depleted Knights and Tigers.

And finally, the Dogs also won their second game of the year, snapping a five-game losing streak. They are likely to be the most confident they have all year. Ironically, they also won their first game of this season the week before they played us and lost in round 8, back then snapping a seven-game losing streak. 

The Eels are looking for three wins on the trot, whilst the Dogs will be shooting for two straight wins for the first time in almost two years, since late 2019 then under coach Dean Pay. Looking to rise from some of their lowest ebbs.

Teams

Sunday, 20th June, 2021, 2pm, Bankwest Stadium, Parramatta
Referee: Matt Cecchin

Eels:

1. Clint Gutherson 2. Sean Russell 3. Tom Opacic 4. Waqa Blake 5. Haze Dunster 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Joey Lussick 10. Junior Paulo 11. Isaiah Papali’i 12. Ryan Matterson 13. Nathan Brown

Bench: 14. Marata Niukore 15. Shaun Lane 16. Keegan Hipgrave 17. Nathaniel Roache
Reserves: 18. Oregan Kaufusi 19. Blake Ferguson 20. Blake Ferguson 21. Jakob Arthur

Injuries and outs: Reed Mahoney (shoulder, round 18), Ray Stone (ankle, indefinite), Maika Sivo (suspension, round 16), Will Smith, Bryce Cartwright, Kaufusi (out).

Sean Russell is set to make his debut for Sivo, with Blake Ferguson apparantly remaining on the outer despite the loss of Sivo this week. Another ex-Warrior, the talented Nathaniel Roache as well as Keegan Hipgrave come into the 17. Jakob Arthur comes into the extended squad with Fergo.

Sivo (above): taking selfies with fans after last week's win. The Eels' cult hero try scoring king is out this week, suspended.

Bulldogs: 

1. Nick Meaney 2. Nick Cotric 3. Will Hopoate 4. Aaron Schoupp 5. Tuipulotu Katoa 6. Brandon Wakeham 7. Jake Averillo 8. Jack Hetherington 9. Jeremy Marshall-King 10. Luke Thompson 11. Adam Elliott 12. Matt Doorey 13. Josh Jackson 

Bench: 14. Sione Katoa 15. Dylan Napa 16. Ava Seumanufagai 17. Corey Waddell
Reserves: 19. Kyle Flanagan 20. Joe Stimson 21. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 22. Jackson Topine

Injuries: Lachlan Lewis (ribs, round 15), Brad Deitz (hamstring, round 15), Corey Allan (shoulder, round 15), Jayden Okunbor (knee, round 16), Raymond Faitala-Mariner (foot, round 18-22), Christian Crichton (knee, season).

Nick Meaney stays at fullback with Dallin Watene-Zelezniak added to the reserves but unlikely to play given the mooted transfer to the Warriors. Jackson Topine and Joe Stimson also make it to the extended squad.

The Dogs' injury woes haven't helped Trent Barrett's turmultous start at the Dogs.

The Dogs have used 30 players to date in 2021 - the second-worst after the Broncos' 31. Meanwhile, the Eels are the second-best having used only 24 players prior to this round (Penrith are the best with only 23 players used).

Milestones: Arthur's 100th win, Cotric's 50th try

If we get over the line Brad Arthur will be only the second Eels' coach to get to 100 wins, after Brian Smith (138 wins). He's also had 91 losses, also second to Brian Smith (98 losses).

Nic Cotric needs one more try to hit his 50th try milestone. His career seems to have stalled, temporarily.

Eels have the wood on struggling Dogs

The Eels haven't lost to the Dogs for almost two years since round 23, 2019 at Bankwest, 12-6, on a Thursday night. 

The Eels will be shooting for four straight wins over the hapless Bulldogs. 

The Dogs haven't been ahead at half time against the Eels for five years - and lost that game.
Despite the Eels' dominance over the last five years, games between these two have been close - by 8 points or less.At Bankwest: one-all

The Dogs and Eels have played two games at Bankwest for a win a piece by small margins of 6 or less. The Eels winning the last one 8-2 in round 1, 2020. The Dogs winning the one before 12-6 in round 23, 2019.

Dogs going through worst period; Eels rising

The Dogs desparately need to change their fortunes over the last season and a half - it's their worst run ever.

Conversely, from 2019 to now, over the last three-consecutive seasons the Eels currently have the second-best winning percentage since 1981-1983. Whether the Eels can maintain this run until the end of this season remains to be seen.

This is despite the current squad having the worst finals record from all those above-mentioned periods of 25% (1 from 4 for 2019-2020). Adding to that, Arthur's overall finals' record is an absymal 16.7% (1 from 6). In comparison, 1981-1983 teams had an impeccible winning finals record winning 87.5% (7 from 8), the 1999-2001 teams at 50% (4 from 8), and the 1997-1999 teams at 42.8% (3 from 7).

Last Week: Winners all round

Eels

The Eels had a 28 point, six-tries to-two, romp over the Tigers, but it took them a bit of time and a Tigers' sin-bin to click into gear. 

The Eels were struggling to score points in the first half against the Tigers despite having almost 70% possession and dominant field position - holding a slim 8-0 lead at the 30th minute. The Eels have shown signs of struggling to score points in earlier games such as against the Saints, Storm, and Roosters most notably when the Eels had a mountain of possession, opportunity and territory.

Lussick, described by Joey Johns as "a genuine first grader", scored a great try, provided good service and had a great game and played the full 80. Dylan has returned with a better attitude - as he promised. He's looking more dangerous, making breaks and incisive runs and taking on more responsibilty kicking, taking some of the pressure off Moses. May it continue. 

Though Moses dropped a sitter that would have put the Eels ahead 20-0, he had an outstanding game as well and seems to enjoy playing against his former club. Fans will he perform to this level, or near it, against the best teams later in the year? 

The King proved once again the soul of the club and is statistically the best defensive fullback in the game as pointed out by Electric Analysis' excellent blog - noting Gutho's 18 try savers, 9 ahead of the next best fullback Daine Laurie. 

Making Elvis proud.

Nonetheless, it was a very stop-start game in part due to the NRL's notorious "crackdown" resulting in 3 sin bins and 13 penalties to add to the 13 restarts, captain challenges and bunker reviews. So, much for the faster game more enjoyable game for fans the NRL was so focused on. Last year.

Arthur smiled and admitted he would sound "like a whinger" at being unhappy with some dumb plays by the Eels and a thirty-minute period when the Eels ran away with the game. During this period they skipping to 32-6 from 16-6 during the 10 minute sin-bin period when the Tigers were down a man. 

Dogs

Meanwhile, last week, the Dogs also humbled the lacklustre Dragons by 22 points.

 It was the best win of their season and an impressive improvement on what the Dogs have been producing. 

The Dogs worked hard and deserved the win having overcome the sin-binning of Josh Jackson before the end of the first half, just as Dragons looked to be gaining ascendancy at 6-2 and one man up. The Dogs held them and went on run in the second half scoring 20-0, three-tries to nil. Notably, the Dragons were a shadow of the side we faced back in round five and defensively far softer on their try line and Duffy was exposed defensively on numerous occasions.

There were many pleasing signs for the Bulldogs. Their defence. Aggression. And their attack, for once.

The elusive and speedy Jake Averillo had the best game of his career, scoring two tries.

It was Aaron Schoupp's first win in first grade and he was particularly pleased with the Dog's "aggressive defence".

The Dogs' hooker Jeremy Marshall-King made a successful return, scoring a try, and and also made a point of their improved defence.

The Dogs will believe they can take the Eels down.

It was the highest score the Dogs have posted and the least points they've conceded in a game this year. 

Have the Dogs turned a corner?

The Dogs believe they have. In the Dragons' game, Averillo felt "in control" of the whole game telling nrl.com:

"I felt like we were in control of the game for the whole 80 minutes. We made them work out of their end, put the pressure on and they just folded so we capitalised. I thought the big thing was the Penrith game a couple of weeks ago, we took a lot of confidence out of keeping the best attacking team to basically four points in the first half."

Dogs' coach Trent Barrett also marked the Panthers' game as a turning point. Though the Dogs lost 30-4 they kept the Panthers to 10-0 at half-time. He noted:

"I noticed after the Panthers game (round 12) a few weeks ago a bit of a change in attitude defensively...It gave them some confidence."

Luke Thompson the rugged Dogs' prop was pleased "eveyone turned up and did their job" against the Dragons, also praising the Dogs' defence. He also made a point how focused the Dogs were on "doing their job again" and needed to produce "at least an 8 out of 10 to get the win" against the Eels.

They do have a history of late season surges. In late 2019 starting from round 15, the Dogs made a late season surge winning the last 7 of 10 games beating numerous top-eight teams along the way including the Eels. They couldn't follow it up last year and just avoided the wooden spoon to the Broncos on points differentials. So, they'll be looking to repeat of 2019 and avoid the dreaded spoon this year.

Time will tell how much the Dogs have or will improve, albeit last week there was dramatic improvement.

Stat Attack

The Dogs improved their power game, yardage and shape

The Dogs have struggled to make metres (second worst) and have struggled with their attack all year (worst). They haven't had have much shape, bodies in motion, nor engage the line and ask enough questions of the opposition (worst line engagements & 13th for decoy runs).

However, last week saw a huge improvement. The Dogs made just about as many run metres (1850m versus 1867m) as the Eels (second best in competition for running metres). The Dogs also restricted the Dragons to less yardage than the Eels managed to do with the Tigers (1291m versus 1468m).

Errors and completions: Contrast between teams

The Eels continue to be one of the most error-riddled team in the competition (3rd worse). Last week the Eels made 12 (slightly above their average) to the Tigers 14. Part of this is due to missed opportunities and fumbles, part of it is due to the Eels risk-taking (2nd best for offloads).

Conversely, the Dogs made only 4 errors last week and make the least errors of all teams. The Dogs also have the highest completion rate in the competition. Obviously, completions and few errors mean little if the attack isn't offering much, with shape, offloads and second phase risk-taking is off the table. 

Last week saw a return to the Eels offloading ways (15 above their average of 12.6 per game).

Sin bins: Eels dramatic rise post crackdown from least to second-most

Prior to the magic round crackdown, post round 9 (the Nuikore and Dylan Brown incidents and subsequent suspensions) the Eels had the equal least sin bins in the competition (0 sin bins). At the time the Dogs were the most sin-binned in the competion.

However, in four weeks, between rounds 11 to 14, the Eels have become the second-most sin-binned team (6 sin bins) - one behind the Roosters whom are the most sin-binned team in the competion (7 sin bins). The Dogs are fairing only slightly better (5 sin bins).

At least the Eels concede very few penalties (15th) unlike the Dogs whom concede the second-most penalities in the competition. And they also have a professional-penalty-milker in Hetherington, who's also been clocked to run at 36km/h. 

Defensive improvements for the Dogs

Adding weight to the claims of the Dogs' players above, last week the Dogs improved dramatically. They halved their average miss tackle count, missing less tackles than the Eels (17 versus 20) and also had less ineffective tackles than the Eels (4 versus 14).

The Dogs defence will need to be at its best as the Eels, on paper, appear to have an overwhelming advantage - scoring points - all over the park. Notably, the Dogs have the worst middle defence in the competition so there could be some more opportunities for our middle-men. 

Linebreaks Conceded: Eels behind the heavyweights

Although the Dogs defence has been far worse than the Eels, the Eels can concede a fair few linebreaks (at 5.1 per game) and are middle-of-the-road at 8th. The heavyweights concede the least linebreaks. The Panthers concede the least (2.5 per game), Storm are second-best (3.2 per game), the Roosters are third-best (4 per game), and the Rabbits are fourth (4.5 game). 

Not surprisingly, the Dogs are even worse than the Eels at 12th, fifth-worse (conceding 5.7 per game). The four worst are: Broncos (6.8), Cowboys (6.5), Titans (6.1), and Knights (6). Notably, we beat the Knights are worse than the Dogs. The Tigers are about as bad as the Dogs (conceding 5.6 per game, compared to the Dogs' 5.7).

Bottom Line

The Eels should win and have too many points for the Dogs - if they're on their game. And don't get flustered, nor make too many errors and show enough intensity. 

The Dogs might prove tougher opponents than their position in the table suggests. The Dogs are gaining confidence in their defence and ability to score points, and are probably the most confident they've been all year. 

The Dogs have struggled to score points this year and over the last five years at various times, so they'll need every ounce of that belief.

Dylan Brown expect the Dogs to be full of belief and "humming" along after last week, presenting a challenge.

Ryan Matterson also believes the Dogs will be tough. 

Hence, on the surface the Eels appear likely to avoid complacency.

The Dogs' best hope will be to turn up with a very intense and aggressive in-your-face defensive attitude - the old Dogs Of War. And subsequently frustrate the Eels attack into blunders, errors and missed opportunities. To do this they also need to avoid letting the Eels get off to flyer as what happened in round 8 earlier this year when the Eels were 22-0 flyer in the 42nd minute. To add to that, the Eels have shown tendencies throughout the season of fading out, inviting teams back into the game, missing opportunities, and lacking killer instinct. They are bad habits that the Eels need to eradicate. And the Dogs have troubled the Eels as shown by the over-abundance of close games in recent years.

Expect an intense battle up front. Hetherington, Thompson, Napa, Elliott, Jackson meeting Campbell-Gillard, Paulo, Nuikore, Papali’i, Nathan Brown should see fire-works. With a few sin bins, perhaps.

We can't really afford to drop this game. We don't have all that much time on our hands. The Panthers' game is next week and the horror stretch that is one of the most difficult in the competition starts in a month's time. That is when we'll start to see what this team is really made of, or lacking in. Encouragingly, despite bouncing back with two good wins, the Eels still have much scope for improvement. And indeed that must occur if we are to avoid being cannon fodder at the business end. Yet, again.

The test this week is as much mental as anything. We can't underestimate the Dogs. And we need to keep the momentum going.

PS: The irresistible and unforgettable Professor Daz will be back next week promising a more exciting preview than ever. Even better than Jelly Wrestling, apparantly. I'll have to take his word for it. He was away on business this week (allegedly, all above board and nothing to do with any additions or operations to any part of his body, front or back) and understandably refused all communications, albeit generously supplied me with a black and white self-portraited calender.