Eels Blogs

It is 216 BC and Hannibal’s Carthaginians have met the Romans at Cannae (southern Italy). Hannibal is outnumbered: 40,000 infantry and 10,000 cavalry versus the Romans with 80,000 infantry and 6,000 cavalry. The Romans thought they could just send their superior infantry straight into the middle of Hannibal’s army, but Hannibal had other ideas. He placed his African infantry on the wings, and his cavalry on the wings. Hannibal bet that his cavalry could beat the Roman cavalry, and that his Gallic and Spanish infantry in the centre could hold their ground. This crescent shaped formation worked, with Hannibal’s cavalry beating the Roman cavalry and sweeping around behind the Roman infantry. Meanwhile the Roman infantry was drawn forward, effectively into a trap when Hannibal’s Gallic and Spanish infantry held their ground. Hannibal’s crescent formation became a circle, with the Romans in the middle, and the Romans were soundly defeated (reports state only 14,000 infantry escaped). Hannibal was the underdog, and we tell of his famous victory to suggest smart tactics can outweigh superior forces.

The Dogs are the underdogs. They want to be Hannibal in this story, inflicting a surprise defeat on the Roman Eels. Everyone likes an underdog story. We empathize with the plucky but supposedly doomed protagonist because we like experiencing the sensation of hope. That’s fine, but the Romans eventually won the war.

The Eels need to take underdogs seriously if the Eels are going to solve their consistency problems. Beware the footy version of the crescent formation, which probably won’t be an attack from the wings after the forwards hold their ground but taking the field thinking a bloody halo is around your head and you’re invincible. Welcome to Round 14.

Teams

Monday 13 June, Accor Stadium, Sydney, 4:00pm (AEDT). Referee: Ashley Klein.

Eels: 1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Waqa Blake 5. Bailey Simonsson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Marata Niukore 13. Isaiah Papali'i 14. Makahesi Makatoa 15. Ryan Matterson 16. Oregon Kaufusi 17. Nathan Brown 18. Tom Opacic 19. Jakob Arthur 20. Mitch Rein 21. Bryce Cartwright 22. Ky Rodwell 23. Sean Russell.

Head coach: Brad Dogwrangler Arthur

Dogs: 1. Jake Averillo 2. Jacob Kiraz 3. Aaron Schoupp 4. Corey Allan 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Matt Burton 7. Kyle Flanagan 8. Ava Seumanufagai 9. Jeremy Marshall-King 10. Paul Vaughan 11. Josh Jackson 12. Raymond Faitala-Mariner 13. Max King 14. Zach Dockar-Clay 15. Corey Waddell 16. Joe Stimson 17. Chris Patolo 19. Matt Dufty 20. Bailey Biondi-Odo 21. Kurtis Morrin 22. Isaac Lumelume 23. Tevita Pangai Junior.

Head coach: Michael WTFBarrett Potter 

Notes: the big change for the Eels is the return of some outside backs: Sivo resuming left wing permits Blake to return to left centre. With Paulo, RCG and Matterson all backing up from SOO1, BA has opted for effectively four middles on the bench: Makatoa, Kaufusi, Brown and Matterson. Note the starting backrow (Lane, Niukore and Papali’i) played 80, 78 and 73 mins respectively against the Raiders in Round 12. We can expect the bench to play extra minutes to rest the Origin 3 if possible? With Hannibal in mind, the Eels have strengthened their outside backs and provided some cover in the middle? For the Dogs, they continue to experiment with Averillo at fullback and ZDC at 14, both intended to aid their attacking game, which has improved under Potter. Now it might be weird to think of the Dogs improving their attack, but recall that feathered underdog Hawkeye, in Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015), who said “the city is flying and we’re fighting an army of robots and I have a bow and arrow.  Nothing makes sense.” So, sure, it doesn’t make sense, but that’s what underdogs do. Not make sense.  

Observations from Last Week

Eels (vs Raiders), 28-20 (W), 48% possession, 75% completion rate, 7 line breaks, 39 tackle breaks, 13 offloads, 30 missed tackles, 27 ineffective tackles, 14 errors, 5 penalties conceded, 0 inside 10 meters, 1 ruck infringements, 0 sin bin.

Dogs (vs Penrith), 18-30 (L), 55% possession, 90% completion rate, 4 line breaks, 23 tackle breaks, 11 offloads, 16 missed tackles, 8 ineffective tackles, 4 errors, 6 penalties conceded, 0 inside 10 meters, 3 ruck infringements, 0 sin bins.

Eels/Raiders highlights HERE.

Dogs/Penrith highlights HERE.

The stat that stands out from the Eels/Raiders R12 game was the second half. The Eels had just 45% of possession and only 26% of territory but scored two converted tries to just one penalty goal. Both were long range tries, and the key takeaway was the Raiders enjoyed 21 tackles in the Eels 20m versus just 1 for the Eels. Put differently, the Eels managed to defend from within their 20m zone. Being poor 20m zone defenders has been the Achilles Heel for the Eels in 2022. If, and it is a big if, the Eels can improve their 20m zone defense, defending like they did second half versus Raiders, then just maybe they can ‘attack with their defense’, as all true title contenders do. Maybe the simplicity of that change is a lesson? Like Frodo Baggins in The Lord of the Rings trilogy (1954-55)? Powerful elves, dwarves and men could not resist the seductive force of the Ring of Power, but a simple and unassuming hobbit could, because he was more determined than heroic.

Conversely, if one did not know ladder position of the teams, one would interpret the Dogs’ stats versus Penrith as the Dogs winning the game. The Dogs ‘won’ the possession and completion game, made few errors, and missed less tackles than their average. The Dogs average 29 missed tackles per game but lonely missed 16. Yes, Penrith were without their Origin players: Cleary, Luai, Yeo, Chrichton, To’o and Martin. And the Dogs still conceded 30 points. While the Dogs still failed to contain Penrith, the Dogs have made some progress under Potter. In Potter’s three games in charge, the Dogs have scored 22, 24 and 18 points (average 21 per game), improving from the previous 9 rounds average of 9 points per match. Unfortunately (for them, not anyone else on the planet), the Dogs have conceded 33 points per game since Potter took over, for an average over the past three rounds of a 21-33 loss. The Dogs, in effect, are trying to make themselves like Connor Hawke, the son of Oliver Queen (Green Arrow), who saves the entire Justice League of America (JLA) from Key (a villain who uses a drug to make the heroes become evil). Connor really has no idea what he is doing and just uses his dad’s bow and arrow and some tricks his non-superpowered dad used (see JLA #8 and #9 from 1997). That’s how underdogs upset the overdogs sometimes, by fluking it.

In somewhat of a coincidence, the Dogs are now scoring 21 points per game (The Potter Era) and the Eels concede 21 points per game (over 12 rounds). Maybe we don’t need to go any further, and can just conclude the stats suggest the Eels will concede three tries but score five? Or as The Angels said in Dogs are Talking, “So you got a reputation? Well I do too!”

The Dogs Are (Not) Talking

The words every Eels fan dreads are applicable here. This is a game the Eels should win. This is the Death Star versus Princess Leia’s home world Alderaan in Star Wars: Episode IV – A New Hope (1977). The Dogs should be Alderaan in this story, but the Dogs think they’re the Rebel Alliance and that they have identified the Eels’ exhaust port. Yeah, insert your own pun there, friends. The Dogs are winning just 3-4 games per season these past few seasons, and in 2022 they’re basically already there, after upset wins over Cowboys (R1) and Roosters (R8).

The Eels, by contrast, have had the Dogs on a very short leash: recent history is all in the Eels’ favour.

Against the Dogs at Accor it's been all the Eels, too.
Despite all the gloom and doom of those stats, there are two stats of a quirky kind. One is that Gutho has scored 9 tries in 12 games against the Dogs, his best tally against any opposition. When Gutho has a great game, the Eels are having a great game.

The only hope for the Dogs is a quirky historical feature where Monday is a wild card. Kind of like The Punisher (Frank Castle) is the wild card in the Marvel Universe. The Punisher (the Netflix series captured how f***ed up he his) is an anti-hero, doing good things with too much gore and a healthy dose of sociopathy. Like in Marvel vs Punisher (#1-4 (2010)) when Spider Man became infected by a virus and turned the world, including all the super-heroes, into blood-thirsty maniacs. Frank Castle was the last maniac standing who could kill all the other maniacs. Yeah, as the Boomtown rats discovered, I don’t like Mondays, tell me why?

Monday's 1955 game, a 8-13 loss against the then pups, was also on a June 13th. 67 years ago.

Otherwise, 2022 comparative statistics all say the Eels should score 30+ against the Dogs, while conceding a few soft tries they should probably not concede.

The Bottom Line

If we forget the current Top 8, and look at the Eels’ results each week, given their oppositions’ relative position at the time – inside or outside the Top 8 – we can see that the Eels can be inconsistent (or, they have multiple personality disorder, as I wrote in the Round 11 preview) but have tended to perform against the minnows.

When the Eels have played a team inside the Top 8, the Eels have won 3 from 5. When the Eels have played a team outside the Top 8, the Eels have won 5 from 7. Compare those results to the current Top 4 (Penrith, Storm, Cowboys, Broncos). Again, using relative position at the time, the Panthers and Storm perform against the minnows: the Panthers have only lost to the Eels (who were inside the Top 8), and the Storm have only lost to the Eels, Panthers, and Cowboys (who were all in Top 8 at time).

Next tier down we find the Cowboys, who have lost to Dogs (R1) and Roosters (R4) when both those teams were outside the 8, and to the Warriors (R5) and Penrith (R12) when both were inside the Top 8. The Broncos lost their first three games when playing Top 8 teams, but since Round 7 have won 3/3 against Top 8 opponents while disposing of 3/3 opponents who were outside the Top 8 (indeed Broncos have only lost one game against a team outside the Top 8 at the time). 

The Eels, then, are not yet in what could be considered the Tier 1 teams (Penrith and Storm), but they have beaten both, while being on par with some current Tier 2 teams (including Cowboys and Broncos) against minnows. The Eels can beat the best but also lose to the worst. As Sterlo used to say, true consistency is closing the gap between your best and your worst.

In Cormac O’Brien’s Outnumbered: Incredible Stories of History's Most Surprising Battlefield Upsets (2010), O’Brien suggests the underdog wins when they remain cool, avoid acting rashly, but act assertively, while they’re helped by the overdog falling victim to hubris. Like the Romans at Cannae, against Hannibal. The Eels can force the Dogs into losing their cool, and avoid the fate of the Romans, by ditching hubris, and playing more like The Punisher than any suited-up superhero. The difference is that The Punisher doesn’t care about being colourful, fancy when in battle, or liked. Underdog or overdog, the method is always the same, be brutal and not dead at the end of the battle.

The Dogs see it going like this ... Hannibal.

Eels fans collectively want it to be like this ... The Punisher. Go Eels!