This is the 7th annual Magic Round. The Caxton Carnival.
We’ve lost all but one.
Both teams are desperate to climb out of the bottom four. Both rebounded with wins last week.
Down on troops, we were gritty and brave to upset the then-high-flying Cowboys in a golden-point thriller.
Meanwhile, the Storm snapped a historic 7-match losing streak against the depleted Tigers, as expected. Redemption is on their menu. As are we.
We're on a 7-match losing streak against the Storm.
They have belted us in recent times and at our two previous Magic Round meets. 64-10. 48-16. Then there's also round one this year and the last. 52-4. 56-18. Patterns.
Can we pull off another David and Goliath against our bitter nemesis?
Team Lists
Eels 14th vs Storm 15th, Suncorp Stadium, Saturday, 16 May, 7:45pm AEST
Weather: Fine, good
TAB : Eels $3.15, Storm $1.37
Referees: Peter Gough (on-field), Dave Munro (touch judge), Chris Butler (Senior Review Official)
Eels: 1. Joash Papali’i 2. Brian Kelly 3. Jordan Samrani 4. Sean Russell 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Ronald Volkman 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Luca Moretti 9. Tallyn Da Silva 10. Junior Paulo 11. Kelma Tuilagi 12. Jack Williams 13. Jack de Belin
Bench: 14. Dylan Walker 15. Saxon Pryke 16. Toni Mataele 17. Charlie Guymer 18. Apa Twidle 19. Teancum Brown
Reserves: 20. Harrison Edwards
Cut: 21. Araz Nanva 22. Jonah Pezet
Head Coach: Jason Ryles
Storm: 1. Sualauvi Faalogo 2. William Warbrick 3. Jack Howarth 4. Nick Meaney 5. Moses Leo 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Harry Grant 10. Josh King 11. Shawn Blore 12. Ativalu Lisati 13. Trent Loiero
Bench: 14. Trent Toelau 15. Cooper Clarke 16. Davvy Moale 17. Joe Chan 18. Stanley Huen 19. Preston Conn
Reserves: 20. Josiah Pahulu
Cut: 21. Manaia Waitere 22. Angus Hinchey
Head coach: Craig Bellamy
Stat Attack
Four Years ago. The Eels last beat the Storm in 2022.
Lost 7-straight against the Storm since then. Conceding 38 points per game.
Josh Addo-Carr is the leading current Magic Round try scorer with 8 tries.
Harry Grant has scored 10 tries in his last 8 games against the Eels.
Suncorp Horror Show
Lost 5 from 6 Magic Rounds. Conceding 36 points per game.
Five Years ago. 2021. That was the last time Eels have won at Suncorp against a team other than the Broncos.
Five Years ago. 2021. That was the Eels' last and only win against the Storm there.
Lost 3 from 4. Against the Storm there.
Concede 40 per game. Against the Storm there.
Lost 4 from our last 6 there. But we have won our last two games there. Both against the Broncos.
Fatigue is the game's fiat currency
Now greater than ever with the most points per game ever leaked in peak V'landyball. 2026.
Even Penrith, the best defensive side in the competition, eventually breaks when facing more than 3-4 sets.
The best they’ve been able to defend this year without leaking a try is this:
A four-minute death zone.
3 from 4 sets
13 consecutive plays.
Facing 80% possession
2-0 restarts.
1-1 error.
That's the breaking point.
You can only minimise the damage of death zones, or strike first. That’s where Penrith separate themselves.
Elite fitness. Systems. Fundamentals. Mobility. Repeat effort.
Elite Game management. Elite Ruck management.
Enough strength and power. But not the most elite in size, speed or explosiveness.
They face the least death zones of all teams.
While fatigue management is King, the ruck is the central bank.
It's the fastest way to create momentum that snowballs. The fastest way to mayhem and chaos in defensive lines that need to walk on egg shells for head-contact, heavy force, and restarts.
Pleasingly, last week, we generated far more out of the ruck. We played more direct and Ryles made subtle changes to the rotations around the middle.
There’s little point playing pretty coast-to-coast football if the defensive line is already set and you don't generate momentum.
Storm will be looking to roll us through the middle and the ruck. Dominate. Let Grant Command. Before they spread it out wide. Grant scoring against us and controlling the game has almost become a tradition.
If it's close, the better kicking game could win it.
Beware the Blitz
The Storm, in form, are Blitz Kings. Last week they essentially won the game in the first 15-minutes.
10 v 2 sets, 80% possession, 90% territory.
24 straight plays
3 restarts, 1 penalty
The Panthers at their best might only let in 2-3 tries.
20-0 after 15 minutes.
24-16 for the next 65 minutes.
Last week we followed the only blueprint that has worked so far, considering how undermanned we are. Simplification.
Eels Basic Stats 2026 | Foxslab
The Golden Trifecta
The 101s. Fatigue management.
1. Fight. Focus. Scramble. Grit.
2. Win the completion battle. 91% vs 72%. The bare minimum is 80%. Good ball handling. Low errors (5-18). Good discipline.
3. Win the kick-chase yardage battle. We kicked for almost 900 metres. The minimum benchmark is around 600m. Importantly, the kicking game didn’t fade away in the second half, like it had against the Warriors and Manly and practically every loss other than our golden point loss to the Tigers.
It's something the Storm's systems have relied on for decades on the back of their elite spine: winning the fight and fundamentals. As do the Panthers who do it better than anyone. It sets the foundation. With all the talk about athleticism and explosiveness, for some it's boring. But in the end, it's about who has the most desire, cohesion and character. Brains. And whenever we've fallen away from all three this year, we've had blowout losses.
Final Word
If we lose, the Storm will overtake us on the ladder, and we could fall to either 15th or 16th. If we win, we will overtake the Dogs to take 13th position.
Form says Storm. Magic Round says them. History says them. The Bookies say them. Suncorp says them.
Can we fight hard, mentally, emotionally and physically, for five-straight weeks? Can we redeem ourselves or will our tormentors?
Charter topping.
Replies
We should stick someone with it....Paging Mr O'neil
If we had the gun we'd probably have forgot to load it 😂
Pick one and we'd still find a way to come out the worse side of the equation.
Not saying we need a scapegoat, saying i wonder if there will be any.
What's a scapegoat? And who is the scapegoat?
The question should be- who's accountable.
There are no scapegoats, there are only people who are accountable for each situation.
I mentioned if Moa could be a casulty for our defence troubles this year. Not saying he should or shouldn't be just a thought.
Realistically you've got to take tenure into account though LB. Sam has been here a season and a bit, it's simply not enough time to judge his performance. Same with Ryles.
The longer the tenure, the more data points you have, the more you can be pretty certain as to correlation vs causation. BA was a good example - he had so many incredibly successful attributes, but he appeared to hit a ceiling where he stopped addressing/adapting his unsuccessful attributes.
BA wasn't fired because he was bad - heck, he got amazing results for many years given the surrounding situations. He was fired because over time there were deficiencies he either wouldn't or couldn't address, and those were deemed as deficiencies that would stop us getting a premiership. Whether that judgement was right or wrong, who knows.
But tenure gives enough information to make a judgement call. Ryles, Moa et al - we don't have enough information yet (like it or not...it is what it is).
Sorry Captain, but again it seems to be misunderstood what I'm saying. I'm not saying Moa should be sacked, I'm saying I wonder if he will be as our defence is so bad.
As for my call on Ryles, it is not he has til then end of the year or he is sacked, it's after 2026 I will then judge him differently in his third year depending how go.
Im not sure why you bring up BA as I have said he's a good coach just got to a point where both parties needed a change.
Sorry but not sure why my comment is made out to be I want Moa and Ryles sacked? Like really?
No mate I knnow you weren't suggesting Moa actually should be sacked - I was just stating out the fact that tenure matters.
We're agreeing with each other - I was just expanding on your point for those who keep getting the knives out too early for folks like Moa/Ryles etc. We make a hiring decision, we then have to live with that decision for long enough for that person to be effective/ineffective, then we judge them.
Lots of folks in our setup/leadership have tenure long enough to judge them. Ryles and Moa don't yet.
My point (possibly poorly worded) was just to expand on the point you made.
Ohhhhh all good Cap. Sorry about that.
There are scapegoats and they can be a valid tool when used judiciously to ensure something more important is not lost in a popular Witch
Anyone at the Eels who is punted at the end of the year could cry "scapegoat" because our problems are bigger than 1 or 2 people
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