Eels Blogs

In the words of the classic literary masterpiece penned by the immortal Bret Michaels, “we both lie silently still in the dead of the night. Although we both lie close together, we feel miles apart inside”. And that was the Eels and Roosters late last Friday night, asleep in the Western and Eastern suburbs, maybe just 30km apart, but inside so much further apart. The Eels rested content after bashing some Chooks senseless. The Chooks cried in their lattes, offended that the opposition scratched the paintwork of their salary sombrero team. Echoing Bret Michaels, “was it something I said or something I did,” whined the Chooks about every decision that saw them, shock horror, not win. We later learned the Rorters called the bunker to ask why most Eels players were not in the bin? We can thus imagine the Rorters later asking the officials “did the words not come out right”? Because they lost. “Though I tried not to hurt you, though I tried,” said the Eels in reply, “but I guess that’s why they say every rose has its thorn”. And the Eels stuck that thorn right up the Chooks’ gilded little a***holes. But “just like every night has its dawn”, every victory is followed by another round, another game, this one against a physical Warriors side in Brisboring’s Magic Round. The Eels are down some troops but no excuses, this is a winnable game. Welcome to Round 10.   

NOTE: HOE is recovering well, and is further developing his graphics skills, nowadays enabled by the fact he is really a brain in a vat but does not yet know it (don’t tell).

Teams

Sunday 16 May, Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane, 1:50pm (AEDT). Referee: Ashley Klein.

Warriors, thanks for basing in OZ last year: 1. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, 2. Edward Kosi, 3. Adam Pompey, 4. Rocco Berry, 5. Ken Maumalo, 6. Chanel Harris-Tavita, 7. Kodi Nikorima, 8. Jamayne Taunoa-Brown, 9. Wayde Egan, 10. Kane Evans, 11. Josh Curran, 12. Ben Murdoch-Masila, 13. Tohu Harris, 14. Jazz Tevaga, 15. Leeson Ah Mau, 16. Bunty Afoa, 17. Reece Walsh, 18. Bayley Sironen, 20. Jack Murchie, 21. Eliesa Katoa, 22. Euan Aitken

Head coach: Nathan Gould Brown

Eels: 1. Clint Gutherson, 2. Maika Sivo, 3. Tom Opacic, 4. Waqa Blake, 5. Blake Ferguson, 6. Jakob Arthur, 7. Mitchell Moses, 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard, 9. Reed Mahoney, 10. Junior Paulo, 11. Isaiah Papali’i, 12. Ryan Matterson, 13. Nathan Brown, 14. Oregon Kaufusi, 15. Shane Lane, 16. Ray Stone, 17. Bryce Cartwright, 18. Joey Lussick, 19. Keegan Hipgrave, 20. Haze Dunster, 21. Jordan Rankin.

Head coach: Brad Arthur

Notes: For the Eels, Dylan Brown is suspended (3 weeks) for again failing to keep a body part to himself, along with Marata Niukore (2 weeks) for failing to avoid Tedesco falling into him. Waqa Blake returns to create a hole, I mean plug a hole, no frak it I mean create a hole, at right centre. Jakob Arthur makes his debut at 5/8, because his Dad said it was pointless to keep taking two cars to work. Nathan Brown returns at lock. Ray Stone comes on to the bench to cover Mahoney, who will have to pass concussion protocols later in the week (Lussick in the 21 as cover?). For the Warriors, Murdoch-Masila returns from concussion and Bayley Sironen drops to the bench.

Observations from Last Week

Eels (vs Rorters), 31-18 (W), 64% possession, 88% completion rate, 3 line breaks, 35 tackle breaks, 15 offloads, 28 missed tackles, 8 errors.

Warriors (vs Manly), 32-38 (L), 49% possession, 83% completion rate, 4 line breaks, 19 tackle breaks, 5 offloads, 24 missed tackles, 9 errors.

Eels/Rorters extended highlights HERE.

Warriors/Moanly extended highlights HERE.

According to the media, the Roosters are always the victims. Just like Michaels when he wrote that “every cowboy sings his sad sad song,” last week the Roosters were injury riddled underdogs, due to missing some stars from the farmhouse.

But we really should ask questions about media bias when it is the Rorters, of all teams, who are presented as the perennial underdogs. It is as if the media long for the good old days of the Rorters getting exemptions to help them win premierships, like bringing back SBW despite the ban on two contracts. The Roosters have so far only received one exemption this year (Suaalii), but that seems not enough for some media hacks, and we can hear them singing softly “though it's been a while now, I can still feel so much pain”.

But reality has a way of upending myths. Thanks to Rugby League Project we calculated the relative experience of the two teams that took the field in R9. 

Seriously, do those stats tell you the Roosters deserve all the tears of sorrow about their depleted roster? This is why the talk of the Roosters operating under a salary sombrero has validity. Even riddled with injuries, they put a more experienced side onto the field than did the Eels last week.

Thus, in honour of the media narrative of poor little Roosters that was pushed on everyone last week, I offer a counter-narrative. Remember in 2020 when the billionaire David Geffen wished us all well in lockdown? From the safety of his $590 million superyacht in the Granadines. Or when a self-isolating Justin Beiber asked us not to begrudge all his stuff? Said from lockdown in his Beverley Hills mansion? Or when Madonna reminded us coronavirus was the great equalizer? As she sat in a bath of flower petals, naked but for expensive jewelry. Yeah, the super-rich crying poor. Gag, vomit, go f*** yourselves. The Chooks are like those entitled, tone deaf celebrities. The media are like paparazzi, groveling for scraps, reporting puff pieces to sustain favour with the Roosters. And the Eels walked right over the Chooks’ salary sombrero. And to make it sweeter, the Eels barely got out of 3^rd gear in the process. Suck it, Chooks. Suck it, groveling media.

Though you would not know it from the media coverage all week, which focused on those dastardly Eels having the temerity to rough up the privileged Chooks, what we in fact saw was quite a controlled game from the Eels. The Roosters were never allowed to sustain any pressure. Nat Butcher made 70 tackles and that told the story, as the Eels charged through the ruck all game, as shown by the run meters: Paulo (175m, from 68 mins), Papali’i (175m), RCG (164m, from 58 mins), Lane (148m, from 46 mins), Kaufusi (125m, from 48 mins), and Matterson (113m).

Note that during the game commentators suggested the Eels were going too wide on occasion. Both BA and Moses in post-match interviews also alluded to going too sideways early on. BA was the most specific, saying he thought sometimes the Eels tried to “go around them rather than short passes through them”.

It might be heretical, but we wondered if the self-criticism was a smokescreen? The Eels clearly targeted the right edge of Walker and Manu, constantly dragging the Roosters middle defenders over to the Rooster’s right side. Consequently, the Roosters were forced to defend 1-on-1 across the field rather than condense their defensive line under assault. The Roosters were led into both a resilience challenge and an athleticism challenge. They lost both. The Eels peppered the Walker/Manu channel and Mahoney’s pass for Cartwright’s try sent Cartwright waltzing through Walker/Manu, while DBrown’s late try started with tired defenders in that right-side channel falling off tackles. Two disallowed tries also went through that same right-side channel: RCG’s barge over try, and Sivo’s try where Papali’I was called for obstruction. The Chooks were cooked by targeted attacks. Athletically, the Eels scored a few tries by dragging the Chooks to the right and then swinging it quickly back to the Chook’s left through Moses’ kicks. Two of Moses’ cross-field kicks put Matterson on Morris/Hutchison, with Matto winning each contest and getting the ball to Fergo and Cartwright for tries. Fergo also missed a try by a blade of grass. The score could easily have seen the Eels somewhere in the 40’s. 

We know the conversation has been about the Roosters having just 36% possession, and little ball in attacking positions, but still scoring three tries. But why should we be following the sniveling media focus on the Roosters? The Roosters are lucky the Eels did not score high 40’s or even crack 50 with luck. The Roosters were out-muscled all game and did not handle the way the Eels targeted their right edge, or the athleticism of the Eels. Is it time we took notice of the more calm, disciplined and strategic play the Eels have been demonstrating?

That reference to discipline will of course bring to mind that DBrown and Niukore are currently suspended for incidents in the Roosters game. “He got 10 in the bin because... was he knocked out? And then (Munster) comes back on 30 seconds later,” Robinson said. That was Round 6, Chooks vs Storm, when Victor Radley did this to Munster…

So, let us make sure we get this straight. Robinson questioned why Radley was sin binned for that high shot on Munster - and remember Radley was charged but only fined - because Munster was fine to carry on. But despite Tedesco being fine to carry on, apparently Robinson now thinks a player staying on the field should not matter to the determination of on-field action? You know what they say about what happens when you look up hypocrite in the dictionary?

DBrown needed to be more careful, no real argument there. But it is not unreasonable to ask where Niukore was supposed to go with Paulo heading his way and Tedesco doing that thing where he falls into the tackle? Regardless, we know one thing for certain. Tedesco may wish to take a vacation next game against the Eels, after Sivo smashed him in June 2020 and Niukore greeted him politely in May 2021. Maybe the Eels are a Tedesco Neutralizing Team? “Cause I’m T.N.T, I’m dynamite. T.N.T, and I’ll win the fight,” to quote the philosopher Bon Scott.

A final thought on that Roosters game. Remember when Mahoney went to great lengths to let the referee know that Radley was concussed? See minute 8:40 (H1) of the extended highlights. But also watch when Mahoney is concussed. See minute 33:58 (H1) of the extended highlights. The Roosters players walk right by, aware of Mahoney in distress but doing absolutely nothing about it. You tell me which team showed a duty of care? Mahoney going off certainly affected the fluency of the Eels’ attack, and we hope Mahoney is back for the Warriors game. Or as was once said, by the ancient poet Maverick, “I feel the need, the need for Reed”.

Consistent versus Inconsistent

Eels: W, W, W, W, L, W, W, W, W

Warriors: W, L, W, L, L, W, L, W, L

That is not even a picture, but it paints a thousand words. The Eels have been consistent in 2021, but it is difficult to get a read on the Warriors. We know the game itself is relatively unique in the history of the two teams.

To get a sense of the difference between the Eels and whoever they are playing in any given week, we use nrl.com/stats to compare the statistics for attack and defence/discipline.

Attack: The smaller the number, the better the ranking (you succeed at doing these things better than others … 1^st is good, 16^th is bad). Also: green, yellow, light red, dark red is better to worse.

Defence & Discipline: The smaller the number, the worse the ranking (you are more guilty of these problems than others … 16^th is good, 1^st is bad). Also: green, yellow, light red, dark red is better to worse.

Comparing the Eels and the Warriors, what do you see?

 We are struck by the general and handling errors, where the Eels rank in the Bottom 4 but the Warriors in the Top 4. Will this ball security issue become important? Possibly it will be offset by the fact the Eels rank in the Top 4 for tackle and line breaks whereas the Warriors rank in the Bottom 8 but close to the dreaded Bottom 4 (rank 12^th and down). Should we expect the Eels to outgun the Warriors in attack, regardless of some dropped ball, because the Eels are a slicker attacking unit? There is a 50-point gap between the Top 6 defences and the rest of the competition’s teams, so the Warriors’ defence is ‘par’ given that clear gap in defensive ability. The issue for the Warriors has been conceding 30+ to teams who were Top 8 or had truly turned up to play: Raiders, Roosters, Storm and Moanly.The LMR graph above suggests the Eels will have some success attacking the Warriors’ right-side, given the strength of the Eels’ left-side attack (Moses, Sivo, Papali’i and Cartwright roams there too). While the Warriors statistically concede more points down their own left side, most commentators focused on the very specific way Moanly consistently breached the Warriors down the Warriors left side. The Warriors’ whizz-kid utility Reece Walsh is a serious attacking threat but a defensive liability, after playing left edge (at 6) against Manly in R9 for the final 25 minutes (Nikorima shifted to hooker). Trbojevic ran through Walsh several times (not alone there, kid, not alone). With Jakob Arthur coming into the Eels team at 6 and playing right side, will the Eels have the attacking organization and fluency on their right edge to attack Walsh in a similar way to which Moanly attacked Walsh?

Conversely, the Warriors have been good at attacking through the middle of the ruck, with RTS, Nikorima, Harris-Tevita and Walsh (off the bench) being very elusive and good at challenging inside defenders. The Eels have occasionally been exposed behind the ruck, though in general their middle defense has been excellent. Will the Warriors’ elusive runners attack the Eels’ middle?

The Bottom Line

We suggest the bottom line is that the Eels began to fade about this time in 2020, losing attacking fluency. Why revisit R10 of 2020? Well as Michaels eloquently wrote, “like a knife that cuts you the wound heals. But the scar, that scar remains”. Now is as good a time as any for the Eels to show they can steadily build their season, without (again) developing a case of the attacking jitters. The Eels fortunately have form on the board.

Including form on the board against the Warriors. 

But the margins between the two teams have been highly variable, with a close average but very large spread.

Our prediction then is that the game could easily be like the last time the two teams met, with the Eels securing a close and late win.

Or … because look at the stats, the spread of scores is wide, it could be a blowout in the Eels’ favour!

Whichever way this game goes, we suggest the Eels deserve to be more in the conversation about premiership threats. The Eels have played most of their games against sides that were in the Top 8 when we played them. The Eels have beaten the Storm and Roosters, and beat the Raiders when the Raiders were 5^th, and the Sharks when the Sharks were 6^th, and now play the Warriors when the Warriors sit 8^th. The Eels lost to the Dragons (who were 6^th at the time). The Eels have not had an easy run (compared to the Panthers, who beat the Storm and Raiders but have otherwise played teams outside the Top 8 the whole way). The Eels would disappoint themselves if they dropped their guard against the Warriors.

Of course, some in the media will regard as a kind of poison the very idea that the Storm/Roosters dynasty might be getting challenged by an emergent Eels and Panthers. We know what the Roosters will say about that possibility. They will call up their media acolytes, asking “And I hear you found somebody new, and that I never meant that much to you. To hear that tears me up inside, and to see you cuts me like a knife. I guess every rose has its thorn.”

But not on an Eels’ head. As smooth as an Eels tackle on Teddy. Go Eels.