Eels Blogs

"Yesterday’s home runs don’t win today’s games,” marks legendary Babe Ruth , drawing a line in the sand.

And similarly, despite being first, we have another job to do tomorrow night. The nine earlier rounds don't count. We're up against a vulnerable, injury-ravaged Manly desparate to avoid their fourth loss in a row with their season on life-support. Conversely, we're flying high shooting for our fourth win on the trot and to maintain first position, despite being weakened ourselves. All this, with the spectre of COVID-19 storm clouds hovering over the game, again. How, if or when will it strike again, considering a vaccine probably over a year and a half away?

Manly's season is in free-fall. Last week, Manly looked fragile defensively, all over the park, against the Dragons, losing 34-4. And, if they’re off-tilt again and the Eels are on, look out. We could see a blow-out. However, I’d expect Manly to be better this week, with Des Hasler giving them a rev up. The players know their backs are against the walls: and acknowledge the “us” versus the “rest”: Everyone else.

Meanwhile, despite never seeming to hit top gear in attack, and with some “Benny Hill” 'spine' moments last week, our resilient defence and team spirit took us home. It’s been a long time since we’ve been as resilient defensive team with balls and guts on our line. It almost feels too good to be true. Yet, seeing is believing.

Third consecutive wins over Eagles: Four times, to date

We’re shooting for 3 consecutive wins against Manly, for only the fifth time in our 74 year history: It's been done four times before: 1976 (3W), 1997-98 (3W), 2003-05 (5W), 2014-17 (6W).

The last game between the Eels Manly was a close one between the two teams (R4) 19-16, marred by Tom Trbojevic's "forward pass" that wasn't really a forward pass, controversial (under Ben Cummins),  that could have won the hapless Eagles the game. But that feels like a life time ago, and we've hardly been favoured by the men in the middle. Who'd want to be a one-man ref? 

Klein: rock, paper, scissors

Meanwhile this week's referee Ashley Klein is hardly a beacon of light in history of refereeing and forward passes. 

Anyone recall the R7 match a few weeks ago: the Raiders try scored off a blatant forward pass or the Eels try disallowed try off a very line ball Moses pass? Well, Klien was the ref. Flick a coin. To quote Vossy in that match: "Is that forwards, Is that backwards? Rock, paper, scissors, make your mind up". 

Anyone recall our latest golden point games: against the Broncos (R24,2019, 26-27 loss) and the Raiders (R7,2020, 25-24 win)?  Yes, you guessed it; our boy, Klein, again. 

Over the last five years, the last 17 of 19 games he referred either Manly or the Eels the games have been decided by 12 points or less. Perhaps fortunately for one of us, he's only refereed one Eels-Manly game, back in 2013 (a R21, 40-6 Eels' loss).

It's not the first time origin and former grand final ref Klein has found himself immersed in a swamp of errors and controversy. There was a reason he was axed from the finals after the Storm-Raiders match where a few contentious decisions went against the Storm last year.

Subsequently, we might need to win this match without relying on good refereering decisions; make it beyond their reach.

Also, Klein hasn't refereed at this ground for three years: since Manly's close 18-14 win over the Knights in R4, 2017 

At this ground: we've had limited success

We last won at Brookvale three and a half years ago; in R1, 2017, 12-20.

Over the last ten years, we’ve lost six of the last nine here, including the last two (2018-2019), both with Tom Trbojevic playing. Go back further and it doesn't get much better. Since 1986 we’ve won here 8 games here, losing 19 games.

In 22 years, we've never won by more than 12 points at Brookvale. If we win by more than 12 points at Lottoland, it will be the first time since R4, 1998. We’ve had 5 wins in the last 22 years, here, between six to twelve points (at an average of 7.8 points).

Ins and Outs: Eels weakened, but Manly decimated by injury, misfiring on three-cylinders

Manly’s problems are now compounded beyond the Turbo factor, ravaged by injuries to Walker, Boyle and the suspension of bad-boy, forward enforcer Fonua-Blake who is light years from a political career. They're misfiring on three cylinders, missing firepower. It's going to be left to Dale-Cherry Evans, Tapow, or the other Turbo-twin to pull something out of the hat.

Sea Eagles: 1. Brendan Elliot 2. Jorge Taufua (L) 3. Brad Parker (L) 4. Moses Suli (R) 5. Reuben Garrick (R) 6. Cade Cust (R) 7. Daly Cherry-Evans (L) 8. Taniela Paseka 9. Danny Levi 10. Martin Taupau 11. Joel Thompson (L) 12. Curtis Sironen (R) 13. Jake Trbojevic  Bench: 14. Lachlan Croker 15. Jack Gosiewski 16. Sean Keppie 17. Corey Waddell  Reserves: 18. Haumole Olakau’atu 19. Tevita Funa 20. Abbas Miski 21. Toafofoa Sipley Injuries/outs: Dylan Walker (ankle, round 13), Tom Trbojevic (hamstring, round 14-16), Manase Fainu (stood down/shoulder), Addin Fonua-Blake (suspended, round 11), Morgan Boyle (injured).

We're still missing Moses and Junior had a minor back complaint in the second half, though is due to play. At times, it was obvious last week, we're missing Moses' kicking game and experience, despite Moses also failing to hit top-form, this year.

Eels: 1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo  (L) 3. Michael Jennings (L) 4. Waqa Blake (R)  5. Blake Ferguson (R) 6. Dylan Brown (L) 7. Jai Field (R) 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane (L) 12. Ryan Matterson (R) 13. Nathan Brown.  Bench: 14. David Gower 15. Stefano Utoikamanu 16. Marata Niukore 17. Brad Takairangi  Reserves: 18. Daniel Alvaro 19. George Jennings 20. Will Smith 21. Andrew Davey Injuries/outs: Oregon Kaufusi (broken hand, round 13-14), Ray Stone (broken hand, round 14-15), Mitchell Moses (calf, round 10-11), Kane Evans (calf, indefinite), Peni Terepo (indefinite)

Stefano might get more than a minute and single run, with a juggling act, this week. Let's see if he has been educated in the fine art of social distancing, this week. Surely, few would want to get too close up and personal with Manly supporters, anyway, other than their own mothers?

Still, Manly are desparate, and the way Penrith is playing we're going to have a battle to stay at the top if we don't keep winning.

It’s harder to stay at the top, than get there, so the old saying goes. But, we're still at the top after nine weeks. That's something no other Eels' team has done.

Half of the teams that are at the top in round nine go onto grand finals

In NRL 22 year history, half of the teams that were at the top at R9 have gone onto a grand final (11 of 22).

A little over half of those first-placed teams, at R9, have became premiers; six teams (6 of 22,at 27%): the 2018 Roosters, 2017 Storm, 2012 Storm, 2001 Knights, 2000 Broncos, 1998 Broncos. The 2001 Knights fact-point might interest some Eels’ fans with a migraine.

The shortened year will probably help the Eels’ odds of making it further come finals time; at least in the top four. That helps as no NRL team has ever won a grand final from outside the top four.

Only two teams have gone on to win the premiership from outside the top six at round 9: Tigers, 2005 (who were 13th at R9, finishing 4th); Penrith, 2003 (7th in R9, ended up winning minor premiership). Only three teams outside the top eight, at the end of R9, have even made it to a grand final: 2005 Tigers (13th,R9); 2009 Eels (14th,R9), and 2017 Cowboys (9th, R9).

Eels’ third best defence in NRL history, at close of R9

We're also the top defensive team. Conceding a miserly 96 points, we've have conceded the least points of all teams, even less than the usual top-defensive jugganauts such as the Roosters or Storm.

It has been bettered, in NRL history, by only two NRL teams at the same stage: Wayne Bennett’s 2010 St George premiers’ (conceding 95 points, in second position at R9), and the St George team of 2011 (conceded 86 points, who were also first place at R9).

Left, right, middles: Eels flourish, Manly flounder

As the best defensive team in the competition, the Eels have conceded only16 tries (Roosters second at 18). Our middle and left-eges are the best in the league. It's only our right-edge that has been troubled this year and mid-range relative to other teams. Manly are 7th best in defence in terms of tries conceded tries (27 tries). They used to be far higher up, so are capable of great defence when in-form. Will they pull it together tomorrow night?

The Eels also have the equal forth best attack (with 35 tries scored, equalling the Tigers), with our left-edge the third equal best in attack. Manly attack has been floundering at 13th (23 tries) with only Titans, Warriors, Dogs, scoring less tries. They're missing so much strikepower, on paper, it's hard to see where their points will come from against us.

Last week, Manly looked vulnerable over over against the Dragons and we're a chance to score any where over the park. Will it finally be Fergo-time? Can he break his worst start in his 11-year career with a nine week try drought?

Cherry-Evans will be a key man for them. He'll need to conjure up every trick in the book. His running game looking to bust us around the fringes and ruck, short kicking game and short-passing game looking for their edge backrowers could be their pet plays against our fast-moving, in-your-face defence. 

Our season has been built on our defensive "systems". It keeps us in most games, even when we’re below par: like last week. The Eels won ugly, beating the Knights 10-4. It was aggressive, fast-moving and in your face. The on-goal defence was outstanding. Even Jai Field is coming to the party. He came up with some outstanding grass-cutters to save the day on the try line. Last week, the good news was there was even some further improvement in our defensive "systems", especially our fabled right side defence. There was greater synchronisation and it was also faster moving.

Meanwhile, our attack, spine, game management, kicking and smarts was a bit off-tilt. Field and Dylan’s inexperience showed at times. Fortunately, Gutho and the meta-machine Reed, who made a gob-smacking 66 tackles, took charge in critical moments.

Up front the Manly forwards will need to be at their best to counter the Eels' in-form pack. Nathan Brown was simply outstanding last week (made 266m,102m post contact metres, 55 tackles for 80 minutes) as was RCG, Reed, Junior (for half a game), Nuikore, Lane and Matterson. If we get our usual roll-on and metres, it's as good as over even allowing for some of our mis-firing attack. We still have enough fire-power to blow Manly off the park. If we're on. Our direct attack is becoming an important feature of that. Manly have traditionally relied on very direct play as well, so I expect them to continue trying that on. Expect some early fire. But will Manly be defensively be on, this week to fight for the middle? If so, they have a chance.

We're up against a desparate team. And a desperate team is a dangerous team. Look no futher than last night's Roosters' upset loss to the injury-hit Raiders, given next to no chance against the reigning champions. Will we put the grounded Eagles to bed, and more salt into their wounds ? If we're on, we should. Also, will both our defence and attack come togther better?