Eels Blogs

And so it begins. Sunday afternoon marks the first time these two have met on this ground, and we’re aiming for six consecutive wins against the Titans for the first time. If the Eels win it will also be the first time in our 75-year history that the Eels have won the first game of the year in four consecutive seasons. It’s never been done before even during our glory years. So, history suggests it's not an easy task. Except if you're Melbourne, of course. They seem to do it year after year, for fun.

We have the wood on the Titans

Prior to 2017 we only won 5 of 16 games (31%), but ever since then we've changed the momentum winning every game. We haven't lost to the Titans for 5 years.

If we win on Sunday it marks the first time the Eels have equalized the ledger against the Titans to 11-11 all.

This game could be a high scoring affair

The odds are high that more than a total of 40 points will be scored. 40.9 points is the average total score in the entire history between these two teams. And 16 of 21 Titans-Eels' games have been over 40 points, with the lowest ever collective score being 29 points (back in 2009).

Team Lists

The team's lists are taken from https://www.nrl.com/draw/nrl-premiership/2022/round-1/eels-v-titans/   

The Obvious Talking point

Naturally, it's former Eel Will Smith who might be motivated to put in something special (famous last words). No, it's actually all about Big Jake. Considering we also have utility Stone on the bench, it’s only natural some fans (including myself) were scratching their heads. What is Jake’s role in the rotational policy? 

To be expected, some disgruntled fans believe it’s wholeheartedly due to his coaching dad. Naturally, Brad’s DNA ties would help open doors for his young colt. Which father doesn’t want to see their kids succeed? It’s a pity Jake isn’t near the class of a “Nathan Cleary” to ensure there's less focus on nepotism, a given reality of life, and more on him with and without the ball. Sometimes, it is as much a blessing as a cursed millstone around one's neck.

Perhaps, Arthur’s selection strategy is a simple one, right before our very noses.

Bascially, the Panthers trial - was a round 1 dress rehearsal. After all Arthur practically admitted it was a “hit-out” for round one, back in early February. And sure enough, Jake performed well enough in the trial. Even outperforming an error-riddled, sin-binned Cartwright who was another top 17 candidate. Cue the well-worn “earned the right” badge of honour, undoubtedly along with  a pre-season “training the house down” mantra. It certainly wasn’t due to some of Jake's defensive flaws exposed last year.  Despite the jury being out on Jake, he’s young, allegedly one of the fittest and hardest workers in the club (he needs to be) so maybe there is hope (selling it to myself), with plenty of balls in the air I’m willing to give him a go. Frankly, I want him to succeed. It's not only Big Jake that is young and inexperienced. 

Titans' inexperienced spine

The Eels spine is four times more experienced, whilst being an average of only 2.5 years older. The Titans spine is one of, if not the youngest on average and least experienced, in the NRL, and it’s just newly put together. In contrast the Eels’ spine is battle hardened over many years - including consecutive finals losses.

One of the Premiership Favorites

Round 1 is now in progress and we’re now the fifth favourite (with Souths drifting to $15 behind us after the Broncos loss). Many pundits might jinx us by singing our premiership credentials - including Gus Gould who rates us a real threat, a change from his usual bearishness on us. History suggests we should wait for some surprises before counting any of our chickens. On Chooks, Trent Robinson apparently isn’t too pleased about being one of the premiership favourites alongside the Storm. What helps our optimism is our trial form, punctuated by a 36-0 demolition of a weakened Panthers’ outfit that seemed off-tilt was impressive, especially in light of Panthers dominating a Turbo-charged Manly on Thursday night.

Positive Trial form

For one, the Eels’ attack showed some signs of evolution from what we have come to expect from a more predictable bash-and-barge collision mantra of years gone by. There was plenty of creative short passes by the middlemen in RCG, Matterson, and Paulo, as well as Lane when he moved to the middle. There were signs we were trying to promote more creativity coming out of our end too. And building up a direct attack rather than sideways-hopelessness in the opposition red zone. Perhaps, this will alleviate some of the reduced go-forward sans Ferguson and Sivo.

Secondly, Moses' control and his kicking game seemed as sharp and potent as ever. Or more.

Thirdly, the one-percenters were all there for 60 minutes, until the changeover. We looked fit and focused. The defence was aggressive, snuffing out the Panthers' offence. We saw some crisp, short passing, fast hands with bodies in direct motion running onto the ball. A nice change from an all-too-often clunky attack that crabs sideways when the bash-and-barge plan A fails.

Lastly, it began to answer some of the questions we had on the commitment of the outgoing 2023 party - Reed, Ice, Nuikore, and Stone. But, it's a long year.

Questions

We have the talent, but are we really mentally tough enough to win it, or will we regress under the expectations?

Towards the end of last year, the Eels showed some intense resolve and backbone in the finals, despite losing by a Reed’s whisker to the eventual premiers. The Panthers' trial form seem to add more buttressing to that argument. Is this a sign of things to come in 2022?  Will our attack really improve? Is our edge defence and ability to implode, under pressure, really sorted?  Will we start with all guns blazing, like the last few years, only to fade and fall flat on our faces? 

Arthur claims we've trained smarter for 2022. Additionally, will the footy nous of Ennis, Mary, and the sports physiologists we have onboard that appeared to help towards 2021's back end, collectively give us an extra edge to compliment an improving and balanced roster?  It all looks promising. Hitherto.

A grand final would be yet another first for Arthur with his stint now in its ninth year. No coach has taken more than seven years in one consecutive stint to win a grand final. Only two coaches in the game’s history have taken more than 5 years (Folkes’ Dogs in 7 years in 2004; Flanagan’s Sharks in 6 years in 2014) with Bellamy not considered a fair comparison.* 

Bottom Line

This is a game the Eels should win if they’re on song. Parramatta has won 23 of 31 matches played at CommBank Stadium, and won 5 of 7 matches there in 2021. Assuming the much-lauded Eels’ pack hold their own or dominate, the Eels really should have too much fire-power and class for the Titans. If they play similar to what they did in the Panthers’ trial, one could expect a similar blowout score or worse. However, all-too-often trial form is a misleading predictor. But, the Titans are not to be underestimated, they have attacking one-punch knock-out power with the likes of Brimson and David Fifita and their young guns will be primed to prove themselves. And we certainly are a scalp plenty want as a hanging trophy.

Result:

A lucky win, in hindsight. We're weren't defensively up to scratch, and let the Titans into the game. We were ahead 10-0 after 9 minutes. Titans got the lead for the first time in the 43' minute. The scores were level at 65', and then a few penalties got us ahead in the 70'.  10 tries in the first half. 0 in the second. We seemed to struggle to score and the Titans picked up their defensive attitude.  Perhaps we didn't respect the opponents or think it was going to be a walk in the park? Did we clam up again in the second half when we got behind? We bombed a few tries, too (Waqa and Gutho).