And so it begins. Unsurprisingly, at Bankwest and following praise by many media critics on our 2020 credentials, we’re heavily favoured to win this one, $1.28 to $3.60 with Sportsbet.
Just as we were in the last outing, seven months ago, against the Dogs , before losing 12-6 at Bankwest for only the second time.
Tomorrow night is more of the same: the same venue, on the same night, with the same refs, and practically the same odds as the last game ($1.34 to $3.20). It’s almost as if the stars are aligning.
Winston Churchill once said:"Those that fail to learn from history, are doomed to repeat it."
Lessons from last year's game
And the last game between these two traditional rivals, in R23 late August, serves as a reminder of what is needed tomorrow night. And for 2020. A tougher and more composed Eels under pressure. Talent and potential on paper or critics' praise is nothing without it.
In the last meet, the Dogs gritty defence and tenacity won them the game: they out-toughed the Eels physically and between the ears. That loss also put to rest any ambitions for a top-four finish. Brad Arthur admitted his troops were dragged into a “fight” and “weren’t patient” enough. Arthur also may have lost his patience after the Eels hadn’t scored a point for 73 minutes, despite the Eels’ enjoying more possession in the game, and attack not being the primary issue we had in 2019.
Also, the Dogs enjoyed a resurgence at the back end of last year, winning the last five from six as underdogs whilst conceding a miserly 10.83 points per game relying on tough defence. And following the latest sex scandal this week, the additional adversity could fire them up. As noted in the last review: don’t underestimate the Dogs.
Tomorrow night is a new fight and the start of a long season. And we'll see if some of the lessons have been learnt.
The Eels are at full strength with Waqa’s miracle inclusion; although, new-buy combinations through Matterson and RCG, may take time to settle-in and finesse.
Meanwhile, the Dogs have key players out. Foran is injured as usual, and Harawira-Naerea along with Okunbor have been stood down after yet another Dogs’ scandal.
As it’s a new season, it’s difficult to predict what to expect after the work put into off-season. Our trial form was patchy, despite Moses’ brilliance, though trials are often misleading.
Eels’ recent record against the Dogs: LWWL
Recently, the Eels and Dogs have shared spoils equally: each winning two a piece from their last four meets.
And there’s some probability of another dogfight: five of the last seven games between these clubs were decided by eight points or less. And if it’s close the Dogs could pull off another upset.
Getting off to a flyer early on, may pay dividends for the Eels, build confidence and relieve the pressure valves, as the Dogs aren’t known as an attacking juggernaut and are missing firepower. They will rely heavily on Lewis and Hopoate and perhaps DWZ or Reimis rabbit-out-of-the-hat moments to create some magic.
Thursday night Hoodoo: only Bankwest losses
Last year, we lost both Thursday night games. Both were also at Bankwest, and they were the only games we lost there – each by a mere six points (to the Dogs and Panthers).
Winning on Thursday nights has been a stumbling block: losing five of our last six, since 2017. The dogs aren’t too crash hot either, winning only two our of their last four. And prior to that they lost ten consecutively.
But, we did win numerous Friday and Saturday night games last year at home against teams of the ilk of Souths, Manly, Brisbane and Cronulla; higher ranked opposition, so we’ll need to muster the same mentality.
Refs: Advantage Dogs
Ironically, Peter Gough and Grant Atkins also refereed the last Bankwest game we lost against the Dogs. Atkins was also the referee in the Panthers' Thursday night game we lost at Bankwest.
We have poorer records than the Dogs under both referees: Atkins (33% v 55.6% winning ratio), Gough (16.7% v 50%).
The Dogs have won three out of the last four under Atkins, and four of the last four under Gough. The Eels in contrary have lost five out of the last six under Atkins; and lost seven out of the last eighth under Gough.
Questions that need answering
The Eels need to back up from a good campaign in 2019 under the weight of expectations of being top four candidates, which they haven’t handled well in the past.The Eels last played in consecutive finals 12 years ago, back in 2007.
But, we should draw some encouragement from last year’s comeback from the 2018 spoon. A remarkable feat: one of the best comebacks in history.
The Eels would win handsomely if the game were played on paper, and not grass or between the ears and in the collisions. But, they should still overcome the Dogs if they play anywhere near their potential and fight for it, focusing and putting their bodies on the line.
Will they handle pressure better, playing tougher, this year? We won’t know the answer after just one game, but we’ll get an idea if they’ve done the right things in the off-season, the between the ears, and are taking the first steps. Ready to begin.
Replies
Great preview HOE - the best I have read. NBrown needs to own Lewis after last time - without losing his patience. From memory NBrown was binned for a high shot on the full back but seemed to me it was in frustration of being harassed by Lewis - including a one on one strip.
Yeah great memory you have Wily, too true. Containing and pressuring Lewis will go a long way. And we need Brown's mongrel in the middle, not in the bin.
Outstanding game day blog mate, ive always thought game day blogs should go to the guy who puts the most effort in, nice to see you doing them mate.
I think we are going to flog them, 30+
Thanks mate. Let's hope it's a runaway. I don't care if it's 1 or 30, as long as we win and keep them to zero!
Heading into 2018, which was after a good year in 2017, many "experts" had us in their top 8 predictions.
Some of those "experts" even had us down as 2018 premiers. I remember in that off season we destroyed newcastle in a trial and everything was looking great.
A strange off season also saw us all arguing about who should be fullback when gutherson returned. Those options, perhaps funnily, being gutherson, french and will smith.
Then round 1 kicked off and penrith beat us before manly absolutely destroyed us in round 2. Season was over before it began.
So what's different?
- well for one gutherson isnt injured.
- we have now actually replaced radradra, a player that was a HUGE factor in the 2017 results.
- grand final winning centre (Auva'a) replaced with an actual gf winning (and better player) winger, enter Ferguson.
- Certainly names like Blake, RCG, Paulo coupled with the emergence of dyl brown to replace the fickle norman also put us in a much better position going into this season.
But arguably the two most important differences (in my opinion):
- we have a home ground.
- 2018 happened (so those around then shouldnt be complacent).
So a ball has not been kicked off. We wont know what parramatta we're gonna get until tomorrow night. Sadly, im sorry, i am not confident at all. I am expecting to lose. I shouldnt feel this way. I mean look at those teams on paper. But paper, as you suggest, doesnt tell the complete story. Parramatta are mentally weak, they have broken me too, i expect failure.
Bulldogs by 10.
Well spotted. We may disagree on many points, but there's some truth there.
Throw in the fact that we have a vastly more resourced football department as well
Yeah good point
Great Preview!!
Foran put on a masterclass in that last game. My only concern is the refs. We've always been a team that relies on momentum. The refs could change that in an instant.
Great preview HOE. Can't wait for tonight.
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