Whilst a few are ready to send BA to the knackery, I thought I'd contribute, instead from a data point of view and draw some conclusions from it..I've tried to avoid joining the BA assessment committee and stuck to what the performance data is saying..
In my opinion, the coach's performance should be measured by what happens on in the paddock, not by player popularity, passion for your club or about how tough you are. This analysis is purely based on number of games and win% per coach.
I've created a current NRL coach ladder of sorts below using the data from rugby league project (http://www.rugbyleagueproject.org) and added a few coaches raised/discussed in other blogs whom aren't currently coaching an NRL team. I've assumed the data to be accurate.
| Games | W | L | D | Win % | |||
| 1 | Storm | Craig Bellamy | 398 | 271 | 125 | 2 | 68.1 |
| 2 | Broncos | Wayne Bennett | 791 | 491 | 286 | 14 | 62.1 |
| 3 | Roosters | Trent Robinson | 134 | 83 | 51 | - | 61.9 |
| 4 | Cowboys | Paul Green | 112 | 68 | 44 | - | 60.7 |
| 5 | Panthers | Anthony Griffin | 156 | 85 | 70 | 1 | 54.5 |
| 6 | Sharks | Shane Flanagan | 161 | 86 | 73 | 2 | 53.4 |
| 7 | Dragons | Paul Macgregor | 90 | 44 | 46 | - | 48.9 |
| 8 | Eels | Brad Arthur | 107 | 52 | 55 | - | 48.6 |
| 9 | Raiders | Ricky Stuart | 347 | 168 | 177 | 2 | 48.4 |
| 10 | Tigers | Ivan Cleary | 274 | 129 | 142 | 3 | 47.1 |
| 11 | Sea Eagles | Trent Barrett | 52 | 23 | 29 | - | 44.2 |
| 12 | Knights | Nathan Brown | 202 | 88 | 113 | 1 | 43.6 |
| 13 | Rabbitohs | Anthony Seibold | 3 | 1 | 2 | - | 33.3 |
| 14 | Bulldogs | Dean Pay | 3 | 1 | 2 | - | 33.3 |
| 15 | Titans | Garth Brennan | 3 | 1 | 2 | - | 33.3 |
| 16 | Warriors | Stephen Kearney | 69 | 20 | 48 | 1 | 29 |
| Des Hasler | 361 | 210 | 151 | - | 58.2 | ||
| Geoff Toovey | 105 | 61 | 43 | 1 | 58.1 | ||
| Michael Maguire | 153 | 85 | 68 | - | 55.6 | ||
| Brian Smith | 601 | 305 | 285 | 11 | 50.7 |
"The Newbies" - early days for Seibold, Pay and Brennan so too early assess their performance.
"Number 1" - Bellamy by a country mile, win % speaks for itself, even after their salary cap dramas, he remains the win % benchmark for all other NRL coaches and unfortunately will probably be at the Storm until he retires.
"The Next 3" - Bennett, Robinson and Green - should be on our next coach target list, winning consistently to be finalists year on year, a bunch of premierships between them, Green in particular would be the future number 1 coach, and a great acquisition if we could lure him but would warrant big $$$$.
"The Peloton" (position 5 to 10) - the average coach group, not winning consistently to get beyond top 8, maybe a top 4 in a good year, no super coaches here. This is where BA sits for mine, he got us away from the dark days of back to back wooden spoons but probably isn't quite there performance wise yet to threaten the top 4 coaches.
"Not Yet" - Barrett and Brown, probably unfair to put them this group but early in their coaching careers, still have a season or two ahead before being considered as good coaches but the signs are good. Brown sacrificed his win % to go blooding a junior team for a couple of seasons.
"No Way" - Kearney should be on everyone's do not hire list… I'm not surprised he needs coaching himself to get his footy team sorted out.. A week to week proposition. Been there, done that.
"The Centrelink Queue" - Hasler, Toovey, Maguire, Smith - all have their negatives, Smith is a premiership choker, Hasler took the bulldogs backwards, Maguire and Toovey were booted suddenly and haven't found a job since. If we had an immediate desire to move BA on (say this / next season), Toovey and Maguire would make sense first to approach only because they both have had recent success, got their teams to grand finals.
I haven't considered Walters because he hasn't coached first grade yet, good origin coach with a cracking side to play with doesn't prove much at a club level for me. Obviously worth considering....
I agree this data is very basic. Perhaps in time better stats on coaches will be available.
Replies
Good blog
Interesting stuff. Probably buts BA where everyone would expect really, even those calling for his head. Considering we spent the first few years at the bottom of the ladder under BA, his figures are not too bad. A couple of good years and the winning percentage would reach Griffin and Flannagan. At 107 games, he is still learning the trade, especially considering there are many coaches with a lot more games under their belt.
Hasn't BA rebuilt the roster over past 2 years. We would have been top 8 if didn't lose points and then top 4.
Fact our roster isn't as great as the roosters, storm Cowboys etc.. But BA took us from bottom 4 to contenders last year. Why is Smith better then BA
Good Blog. Thank you for making the effort