Chiefy asked me to do something along these lines, and I couldn't resist his charms for once. I will list here under a starting point and update it as the week goes on.
Getty Images: Al Riffa is one of the favorites will make his Australian debut in the Melbourne Cup, but is heavily weighted, and can he adapt immediately to the firmer and faster Australian conditions over softer Irish grounds like his trainer and team have done for other Melbourne Cup winners?
Current Market
As of Tuesday 28/10
$6 Al Riffa: trained in Ireland by Joesph O'Brien (son of the legendary Aidan O'Brien) who interestingly he has won the Melb Cup twice with Australian debutants (Rekindling 2017, Twilight Payment 2020); a third time lucky charm?
$6 Half Yours: winner of the Caulfield Cup and trained in Australia by the McEvoy team. I rate would him a top four
$7 Valiant KIng: slashing second in the Caulfield Cup trained by Australia's leading and Great Trainer Chris Waller
$8 Buckeroo: 2nd to Via Vistina in last Saturdays Cox Plate and also trained by Chris Waller
$9 Preage Nocturne
$13 Maydaan
$15 plus Others. A field of 40 hopefuls are in contention at this point in time.
My Early Tips
Box the first 4 in that betting order with a view of getting the Trifecta. Your outlay will be $24 to achieve this for a 100% return $6 will return you 25% if you want just a small flutter.
Update: No 1: 7.30 summer time 28/10/25; Include Absurde and Vauban
Wait
On race day there will be 24 starters subject to late scratcings. The field will be finalised on Saturday night and you will have all your SWEEP information when you wake up Sunday Morning.
I might add that this blog is live, anyone and everyone can put their 2 bobs worth or ask any questions. This information could be completely different by the close of Saturdays Race Meetings, so DO NOT commit to anything yet.
Replies
Norse God of Thunder, Thor, is famous for his hammer.
Big day for the shop, I imagine you receive half a years worth of gaming consoles during Spring ?
LOL, I have been retired for over 12 months Wiz, but I might be able to retrieve your kids consoles, after you hocked them to raise funds for the "haters" group. I have assured Interpol and police the children didn't steal them and that their father had problems. How's that community service going Wiz?
I backed half yours in both cups after the Naturalism. Showed massive acceleration pulling away to win easy that looked like a goods cups trial.
Can sit amongst the pack as has come from worse than midfield a number of times which is important in big field like the Melbourne cup.
Will need some luck at 3200 with pace of the race. Don't think can win a true staying test but if slowly run will likely have 1 of the fastest sprints home down the long straight over horse that bit more 1 paced over 2 miles.
I also liked Vauban and Deakin leading into Caulfield cup but Deakin is now out. Trying not get to involved in watching form of too many horses as it's easy to make a case for plenty of them on their day.
I'll probably stick to my future bets and rely on my wife and niece to pick some roughies to add to first 4s and couple each way bets
Also have some bets on Hedley Grange for Big Dance on cup day. Started following the horse as I have a friend called Hedley and it has made me a lot of money recently. Unfortunately favourite just like half yours but future bets have given be better odds.
Good choices FM ....Half Yours is probably the safest bet, to get that run for your money.....Hedley Grange is a "real winner" of an animal and I could imagine how far up you would be if you have been following him through, the last 12 months.
I think Waller produced a sleeper in the Caulfield Cup being River Of Stars, travelled well turning off the ridiculous tempo and going through the line better than Half Yours who in my opinion was entitled to pull away further.
Meydaan had a wide run throughout and was shuffled very wide turning, he closed off very well considering the run in transit.
They are the two I'd like to be playing on dry track provide they draw well.
If the rain comes I think Birdman is the wet tracker I'd want to be on.
Great input JB, I will certainly take note of both horses you mention and River of Stars is well bred for the 2 miles, Meydaan has had good form overseas and his runs have been much more orthodox by Australian Standards for an overseas horse.
I will note these two horses in the next update.
NB The way Flemington is now graded with a sand base, it seems unlikely that we will see genuiningly heavy tracks in a Melb Cup again.....I think horse's that would prefer the sting out of the track would be what I would be looking for if it is raining.
That said when Chris Waller is the trainer, you cannot leave Birdman out of it, but you should get a some huge price value from Birdman.
JB Meydaan is a massive danger, Caufield is a tight track it doesn't suit the imports, generally they find a bit of trouble but at Flemington which is wider and a massive straight they're much more suited which Meydaan will appreciate.
If the imports can handle the rush to the first turn in Australia then settle they can run a big race.
Being a handicap race it's all about the weight, common perception is a kilo equates to a length but in the cup it's more two lengths.
The horses that tend to do well higher up in the weights are the stand out performers at weight for age level in Australia.
If you can see out the 2 miles and able to accelerate the last 450 metres your a red hot chance lower down the weights.
You can't afford to be hampered when they sprint , you need to get out on your racing line and get a clear run.
The best horse rarely wins a Melbourne Cup the best ridden weighted horse invariably does.
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