Is Luke Kelly the reason we win games?

Kelly’s overall NRL record is 11 wins from 34 outings.

Alright, let's have a closer look at those figures... He played 6 games for the storm, before coming to the Eels in 2012. During his time at the Eels, he's played 28 games. During 2012, 2013 and 2014, the Eels won 23 out of 72 games. That's a win ratio of 30.5% for Parramatta.

Kelly's winning rate is 32.35%, having won 11 from 32. Now, at least one of those 6 games for the Storm was a loss (somewhat ironically to the Eels (18-16) - 20-Jul-2009, on his debut). I can't find the other games he played for Melbourne, after having a quick look. Either way, his winning percentage with the Eels has to be at least 21% - 39% of games (6 - 11 from 28).

So there's quite a strong argument that the only reason we win games is is because Luke Kelly is in the team. You can't deny the facts:

Eels (2012 - 2014) won 30.5% of games.

Luke Kelly (2012 - 2014) won 21% - 39% of games played.

Now, I'll admit I'm having a bit of a laugh, but isn't it interesting the way you can play with stats? Also, surely there's some truth to what I've just put forth...

"I am a big advocate for Brian Smith to have some sort of role within the club, even around the GM role. I wouldn't give him the GM role but maybe an advisor role or something like that. Get a new GM and have Smith with him."

Replies

Gower Power May 14, 2015 at 12:42am

I wish I knew the answer to that. I need to stock up on some of those RL yearbooks, which have team lists for each game.
Gower Power May 14, 2015 at 3:19am

Haha, I guess the connection I'm making is that Luke Kelly has played in a surprisingly large number of games we won from 2012 - 2014. Especially considering how few games he has played all up for the Eels. It was interesting reading about his past, as he was once considered a 'rising star' playing for Melbourne. I think I read that he captained one of their junior teams to a GF win or something. Sounds like he may have peaked quite young.
Tentonz May 14, 2015 at 7:14am

I think those games must have been won because of Ben Roberts...
The Captain May 14, 2015 at 7:22am

Your stats are intentionally rubbish, BUT you do actually make a valid point. Not that Kelly improves the Eels (that would make his win % higher than that of the overall team) but based on these numbers Kelly doesn't make the Eels chances of winning any lower.

That is actually surprising. We're roughly a 3 in 10 chance of winning with or without Kelly. That's pretty uninspiring for the half he's been replacing.
- Gower Power > The Captain May 14, 2015 at 3:11pm
  
  Yeah, I probably am making it out to be more than what it is. Having said that, the facts are all correct. The reason I posted this is because I found it odd that Kelly won as many games as he did, considering how badly the club has been doing. Here's the Eels winning record from 2012 - 2014.
  
  2012 - 6 wins (from 24 games)
  
  2013 - 5 wins (from 24 games)
  
  2014 - 12 wins (from 24 games)
  
  So that's 23 wins from 72 games.
  
  In that same time, Kelly won 6 - 11 games, from 28 for the Eels.
  
  Maybe that makes it all a little clearer.
  
  But I suppose whatever the case may be, I hope he steps up and plays well this weekend :)
- Poupou Escobar > The Captain May 14, 2015 at 4:43pm
  
  What's this '6-11' mean? He has won nine games at Parra. Nine from 28 is a winning percentage of 32%
  In that time (2012 to 2015) the team has won 17 from 53 (32%) without him. So no difference.
josh jones May 14, 2015 at 8:07am

Considering he's probably not even in the top 10 halves in nsw cup I doubt he'll be the reason for anything. If we win it'll be coz defense and the Warriors being slightly off their game. Perhaps Aurthur wants Norman to be more comfortable and get used to playing with a more tradition 5/8/half with Foran coming in next year as supposed to the enigmatic Sandow.
Jose Martinez May 14, 2015 at 1:51pm

Fun fact is that Luke Kelly and Richie Fa'aoso have a premiership ring while Jarryd Hayne doesn't.
CP May 14, 2015 at 4:51pm

I really hope Kelly pulls a massive rabbit out if his hat and has a decent game. Please just do the simple stuff and don't try anything magical. We need to learn to grind a game out!
Gower Power May 14, 2015 at 5:18pm

Thanks for clearing that up. I couldn't find exactly how many games he had won for Parra, though I knew it was between 6 and 11 (I actually said that in the original post). That means he won 2 from 6 at the Storm. All good, thanks :)