There is no easy draw in the NRL Telstra Premiership – but some are arguably harder than others.
NRL.com have analysed the fixture list of all 16 clubs for the 2017 season to come up with a "toughness" rating for each team's draw.
Here's how it works: we've ranked each opponent based on their 2016 finish – minor premiers Melbourne being worth 16 points, while wooden spooners Newcastle are worth one point. Then we've used those numbers to analyse each club's draw. More games against tough opponents will lead to a high "toughness" score, while more games against weaker opponents will lead to a low score.
Of course, player movements mean teams change each year – some get better, some get worse – so we've also run the numbers based on 2017 premiership betting. We've then combined those two sets of numbers to come up with a toughness ranking for all 16 fixture lists.
These rankings don't take into account every factor in what makes a "tough" draw. Some teams will travel more than others (the Warriors, Cowboys and Storm will always travel much more than the league's Sydney-based teams, for example). Some teams will play a string of games at home or away, or face strong teams during the State of Origin period. The amount of time between games is another factor this system ignores.
Still, for a quick snapshot, here's how each club's draw is ranked – from toughest to easiest – in 2017.
1. Rabbitohs (168 points)
2. Cowboys (164)
3. Knights (162)
4. Raiders (155)
5. Sharks (145)
6. Warriors (145)
7. Dragons (139)
8. Titans (137)
9. Panthers (137)
10. Sea Eagles (132)
11. Wests Tigers (130)
12. Roosters (128)
13. Storm (123)
14. Broncos (119)
15. EELS (115)
16. Bulldogs (110)
The toughest draw belongs to the South Sydney Rabbitohs, who rank at the top of the list both according to 2016 rankings and to 2017 premiership betting. They play premiership contenders the Storm, Cowboys, Broncos and Panthers twice each, with only a single game against lower-ranked clubs like Newcastle and St George Illawarra.
By contrast, the Bulldogs only play nine of their 24 matches against teams that played finals football in 2016, and will be forced to face premiership heavyweights Melbourne, Canberra and Cronulla just once each.
The Eels meanwhile have the "easiest" draw according to the current premiership betting odds, with two games each against the three least fancied NRL clubs (the Knights, Dragons and Wests Tigers).
Does a difficult draw matter? Yes and no. Sure, playing a tougher run of opponents could make a difference for teams vying to clinch a finals spot who are on the edge of the top eight. On the other hand, teams that do make the finals will arguably be more battle-hardened if they've got there by beating the best of the best on a regular basis.
There's much more to the NRL draw than the quality of opposition teams though. Check out the links below for your full guide to the 2017 Telstra Premiership fixtures.
Replies
I can hear the deafening roar of the Parra haters over this. In all reality though, Parra seem to struggle to beat the lowly placed teams and are focused against the top ranked teams. Hopefully BA can work on that and get them into the right frame of mind for all games.
Wouldn't you know it, look at the other 3 last teams, Storm, broncs and dogs, easy draws again, its just a disgrace the leg up some of these teams get especially the Broncs, we've got lucky this year if this system of deciding the draws toughness is a fair gauge, we usually always get a tough draw.
Dogs well it's not like the guy running the whole game has some interest in them
Storms are just the favourites to keep the game strong across the border.
The surprise should be us. Parra getting an easy draw? Now that is a first.
People have to remember, we lose a big amount of HG advantage at ANZ, whilst i think it will be good for us getting out of our comfort zone, its yet to be seen the dynamics of how the move there is going to play out in terms of home ground advantage on game day.
Please explain somone
But need to take into account other factors such as last years rating is not this years and playing cowboys/Broncos/storm at origin is much easier than other times
About time we had a 'easy' draw. Last few years we have been amongst the toughest. Interesting how Raiders will do this year, last year they had a ridiculously easy draw against a much harder year draw this year.
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