The odds are stacked against us.
The Cowboys have won six of their last seven. We’ve lost six of ours.
Townsville has been a slaugherhouse for the Eels this century. Since 2002, we have won 3 from our last 15 there. Even the 2001 side could only scrape out a draw up there.
Historically, up there, we average around 14 points while conceding close to 30. In today’s faster, higher-scoring game, that trend feels even more ominous. Games are around 10 points higher on average than in 2019. Fifty points per game is now the average. The highest in history.
The Cowboys will also be riding an emotional wave with Jason Taumalolo becoming the Cowboys’ most capped player, surpassing club legend Johnathan Thurston, who’ll be there to mark the occasion. Taumalolo has wound back the clock to become a destroyer in the middle once again.
The Eels just can’t catch a break. Ryley Smith joins the casualty ward from hell, while key players like Mitchell Moses, Josh Addo-Carr and Dylan Walker all look to be carrying bumps and niggles.
We're on a wing and a prayer with few believing in us.
Teams
Cowboys 6th vs Eels 15th, Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Friday 8 May, 2026 8.00pm AEST
Referee: Liam Kennedy (on-field), Belinda Sharpe (touchie), Chris Butler (bunker)
Weather: Townsville. Sultry.
TAB: Cowboys $1.29, Eels $3.60
Cowboys: 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Braidon Burns 3. Jaxon Purdue 4. Tomas Chester 5. Zac Laybutt 6. Jake Clifford 7. Tom Dearden 8. Coen Hess 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Jason Taumalolo 11. Heilum Luki 12. Sam McIntyre 13. Reuben Cotter
Bench: 14. Soni Luke 15. Griffin Neame 16. Thomas Mikaele 17. Matthew Lodge 18. Xavier Kerrisk 20. Kai O’Donnell 22. Robert Derby
Cut: 19. Mason Barber 21. Kaiden Lahrs
Head Coach: Todd Payton
Eels: 1. Joash Papali’i 2. Brian Kelly 3. Jordan Samrani 4. Sean Russell 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Ronald Volkman 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Luca Moretti 9. Tallyn Da Silva 10. Junior Paulo 11. Kelma Tuilagi 12. Jack Williams 13. Jack de Belin
Bench: 14. Dylan Walker 15. Saxon Pryke 16. Toni Mataele 17. Charlie Guymer 18. Apa Twidle 19. Teancum Brown 22. Lorenzo Talataina
Cut: 20. Jezaiah Funa-Luta 21. Araz Nanva
Head Coach: Jason Ryles
Stat Attack
Jason Taumalolo will play his 295th NRL game for the Cowboys and will surpassing Johnathan Thurston’s club record of 294. It's his 17th season.
The Cowboys have won 5 of their last 7 at Queensland Country Bank Stadium.
The Eels have lost 80% of games up in Townsvile this century (12 of their last 15) but have won six of their last eight games against the Cowboys.
Scott Drinkwater has scored 5 tries in his last 5 games.
Josh Addo-Carr has scored 13 tries in his last 11 games against the Cowboys.
The Match-Up
The Cowboys are not a consistent systems side like the Panthers, Warriors, Storm or Dogs need to be. They can beat you even when they complete poorly or make errors because they have strike everywhere. Not unlike the Dolphins, they just need a 15-20 minute period of momentum to score 3-4 tries to wrap up the game and outscore you.
They are the yardage and linebreak kings. Top-two for both. A lethal mix against a side struggling defensively.
Their blueprint is obvious: roll us through the middle, aided by a scheming, niggling Reed Mahoney. Create ruck chaos and holes in our defensive line, then unleash hell through the likes of Drinkwater, Purdue, Luki, McIntyre and Chester. A mature Jake Clifford’s has become the perfect foil for the classy Tom Dearden.
For us, the equation is simpler.
In the games we've lost, we've made more errors, completed worse than the opposition and kicked under 550m.
In the games we've won, we've made less errors than the opposition, completed better than the opposition and kicked 600m or more.
The the last two games although we've fought hard, we didn't do the fundamentals well enough. The exact opposite of the Dogs' match.
We made too many errors and our kick-chase faded (480 to 240m, 363 to 191m kick metres from first half to second), meant the scores blew out in 15-20 minute windows where both Manly and the Warriors scored 3 tries in 13 minute periods.
We've lost the yardage battle every game, so our kick chase is vital.
The Warriors, a powerful systems-based team, have only kicked less than 550m once this season. That's telling. They kicked for over 700m last week. The only two games they've lost were when they completed worse and made more errors than the opposition.
At this point, spreading the ball wide and looking pretty isn't going to help us much unless we've created overlaps and extra space. Worse still, because we're losing the yardage game, it increases the chance of errors. A death sentence. The Roosters showed relentless direct running out of the ruck and fatiguing middle third is going to reap rewards.
We are undermanned, so we have to not just fight, but do the fundamentals better. Better kick-chase. Better line speed in defence. Minimise errors. Keeping it simple.
The Story of the Season
Blowout 50+. Fight, fight. Blowout almost 50+. Fight. Blowout 50+. Fight, fight, fight.
Commendably, the Eels have fought for three weeks in a row, but for little reward. There is a team there. But can they continue to fight or will they hop back on the rollercoaster in a year where blowouts are commonplace?
Final Word
The odds are stacked against us.
History says so. Form says so. Injuries say so. Townsville says so. Bookies and punters say so.
Few give the Eels a chance. But the team has no option but to believe and fight.
Replies
Cowboys by 26
50 burger in coming I'm afraid
I mean look they have talent to do so but they have poor error and completion rate. They can beat us and only score 30.
Nice write-up, HOE.
Geez, we really don't like Townsville.
Feel we might be in trouble in this one with Cowboys in form & running high on JT emotion.
Vice Captain Drinkwater in SuperCoach?
Cowboys 40 - Eels 16
Thanks, brother.
Hopefully, history doesn't re-write another chapter from this century's book.
If we fight for the fourth-straight week, it's a good sign. We could also end up flatter and fatigued earlier if they get off to a flyer with momentum. A dangerous cocktail.
NOS, Drinky has been on fire lately. I've gone for Ponga over Drinky this week. A mistake? Already got Su'a, Teddy and now Ponga (flex).
If only I kept the the VC on Isaako (like last week). The Dolphins flexed a bit last night. But Ciraldo was right: over a 30-minute period the Dolphins had all the ball and the officiating didn't help.
In a 30 minute period (36'-69'):
Preston sin-bin (37'); a turning point.
22/23 (96%) v 5/6 (83%) sets
78% possession against them
22/23 (96%) v 5/6 (83%) sets
5-0 restarts.
5-1 penalties.
3-1 errors.
87% territory.
The score goes from Dogs 12-8 to the Dolphins 44-12. If the game went for another 60 seconds, the Dogs were going to concede 50; like the Tigers did last week (injuries).
You can win a game in 10-15 minutes these days. Most games are decided by around the 60th minute.
2026 is the first time in the game's history we've 50 points per game as the average scoreline. The rules are manufactured to make it next to impossible for defences and it was too late to change recruitment strategies in February.
The V'landy-Ball Universe. I hardly recognize the game these days.
Hoe - Nice pick in Ponga, he looked awesome last week - if he lasts 80mins, feel you will nail it with him over Drinky?
Damn! Unlucky about Isaako, looks like he destroyed the Dogs (didnt see the game)... Nice work having him at all, he's a bit of a POD?!
Yeah to be honest im finding this season a tough watch (not just Eels related), as it sounds you are? The amount of injuries is proof its not maintanable, and haven't heard anyone say they are enjoying this new NRL.
The team Peter O'Sullivan helped build,honestly they've got one if not thee best back 5s in the game.They destroyed the Dogs and Farnworth and the Hammer were quiet.
Nikorima I tell you what that guy is someone the club should be looking at if available he gets his body in the way defensively and his run pass selection is top notch.
That's the scary thing about Parra atm. The uncertainty of the direction we are goingWe are obviously all in on Lorenzo so we can't really go to market for a 6 and we really don't know if he's the real deal. This is why we have to "pay overs" so to speak for Herbie. We really need that class in and around Lorenzo. Got to throw the kitchen sink at him I reckon
Got to do something in the back 5 Iongi can't do it by himself the teams also leaking points at a record clip.I have no doubt the kitchen sink will be needed to be thrown at Farnworth I mean we landed Lomax once upon a time can we land a Farnworth I just don't know.
Refs orchestrating the games has become the thing in 2026. If V'Landys thinks that's what fans actually want to see, he is crazy. In the Eels victory over the Dogs, it was notable for lack of referee involvement: 7 penalities (Dogs conceded 6!) and 3 six-agains. Maybe that is because everyone knew Gough had frakked up in our loss to Tigers?!
Against Warriors? Penalties (11) and six-agains (14) dominated the game.
It's probably fair to say some teams are coping better defending against gluts of possession than others. Limiting yardage losses or defending their line (after 10 tackle sets etc), not handing the ball straight back via errors, and not getting penalized for stupidly interfering in the kick chase.
The Eels are not one of those teams. We are suffering with this new referee orchestrated product.
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