This is the equation.
Its just about impossible to finish top 3.
Melbourne are 4th - 1 win ahead with a far better for and against differential. To finish on top of them, we probably have to win all 3 games, and they have to drop 2 games. They play Brisbane, Roosters, Parra. It's not inconceivable and it might come down to the last game.
Rabbits are 5th - same amount of wins, just far better for and against differential. We have to win just 1 more game than them. They play Penrith, Cowboys, Roosters. That's very possible.
Broncos are 6th - same amount of wins, but 39 points ahead on the differential. They play Melbourne, Parra, Dragons. Unless Melbourne and Parra flog them, we probably have to win 1 more game to finish ahead of them. Again, that's quite possible and might be determined by who wins next week.
Parra are 7th and play Dogs, Broncos, Storm. Crucially, the game against Melbourne is at Commbank. We owe the Dogs and Broncos a hiding too. I won't predict how many we will win, but hope it's all 3.
Roosters - 8th, 1 win behind with a far better points differential. They only need to win 1 more game than us to leap frog. They play Tigers, Melbourne, Souths.
We are cheering on Penrith and Broncos (at Suncorp) this week, Roosters and Cowboys next week, and Bunnies and Dragons the following week.
I'd say we are likely to finish 5th or 6th. If so, I'd hate to play Roosters in week 1 of Finals.
Let's hope by some miracle that Melbourne lose to either Broncos or Roosters and we win our next 2, so that we play for 4th spot in the last week.
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Sorry but top 4 is a pipe dream.
I would say at this point we are more likely to finish 8th or 9th.
It's far from pipe dream territory.
Roosters will probably start favourites against Melbourne next week and Parra are a good shot against them in the last round at home. You couldn't write off Brisbane's chances against Melbourne this week either (although, I think it unlikely).
Bunnies are very unlikely to win all 3 of their games given their opponents. They have to come down at some point. Even if they lose just 1, Parra are a chance to finish on top of them.
Brisbane play us and Melbourne. I'll back them in to lose at least 1, which would likely take them out of the running for top 4.
Roosters almost can't finish 4th, even if they win all 3 games.
It's pretty simple, if we win all 3 games and Roosters beat Melbourne next week, we are a realistic chance at finishing 4th.
I honestly can't see us winning 1 of our last 3 let alone all of them.
When you start needing other results to go your way you have taken things out of your own hands and that's never a positive thing.
Be lucky to make the 8 and a 2 year extension for Super Dud
The thing is would you want 3 tough games heading into the finals or to be resting players in r 25 ? I don't think they'll be giving 100% . Missing the 8 could be on with a loss in Saturday
Good read Johnny B Good fingers are firmly crossed.
Nah we miss the 4 for three reasons:
1- stone diving at the sharks players legs
2- Hastings field goal
3- deciding to play cowboys in hot Darwin
Although I'm completely aware stone made up for it a week later. We could have just as easily beat the sharks and lost to the storm a week later. I'm also a aware tigers deserved their win and we didn't show up. And I know we got flogged by cows but I genuinely believe giving up home ground advantage that week was huge. I think we beat them at that point if we play that one at parra.
That wasn't our decision
Counter point to Stone giving away the penalty vs Sharks.
Massive penalty count win vs Manly
Receiving a penalty try vs Panthers
Without those we are out of the 8.
Let's not forget we beat titans twice but nearly lost both those games.
This season has been a dumpster fire
The Tigers and Canterbury losses simply could have had us in top 4 had we won, simple as that no excuse.
Yeah you're not wrong that other games could have just as easily gone the other way too. It's just some teams get lucky and some just a bit of luck, some get none (tigers).
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