Like my Previous Blogs (Mid 2014 and Original Assessment of Coaches) I'm going to run a series of blogs that break down some relevant performance stats of the Eels since 2009 mainly to highlight how and where we're trending (and whether it's a positive or negative trend).
Firstly, a quick blog to show the Big Picture. Here are our Points For and Against since Round 1 2009 right up until last weekend:
At A Glance, What Does This Tell Us?
We can see clearly where the rot really sets in (and this is why I've got such a grudge against Stuart and the way he went about things at our club). The points scored against us soared under Stuart and the points we were scoring stayed relatively the same (or dipped a bit). Our points differential was blown out of the park in a negative direction.
Enter Brad Arthur. Immediately we see an improvement - the lines get closer together. Less blowouts. More importantly...for the first time since 2009 our Rolling Average of Points For and Against (basically an indicator of medium term performance) has gone into the positive multiple times. This means we're starting to get the ability to string together positive performances and get some level of consistency.
Of course the overarching inconsistency issue is still there. And what's telling is that this inconsistency tends to show that when we do get bad, we do it on both fronts (and it tends to be in the back half of a season). We let more points in AND we stop scoring at the same times. Double whammy. This is still a lingering problem that BA will have to address, to stop being "outclassed" for several weeks on end.
Was Stuart REALLY that bad for our Club?
In a word. Yes. Here's a telling metric - it shows points For/Against differential on average for each Coach (basically how many points did the team score/concede on average for each game a coach was in charge):
On average, with Stuart in charge we conceded 17.25 points per game and gained 0. Compare that to Arthur where we're currently conceding 4.75 whilst scoring 0.
What's to come?
I'll be putting up some blogs in the coming days/weeks that break down the numbers in quite a few different ways:
- Home vs Away by Coach
- Win/Loss % with number of Injuries/Suspensions
- Performance vs each Team (who kills our for/against and win % the most)
And a bunch of others as I churn the numbers and find something interesting.
So the final message is: Keep The Faith. BA has repaired a lot of damage, and we still have some way to go. He has definitely improved the consistency of the team in a positive direction from the damage of Kearney and (most notably) Stuart.
If you have any analysis requests, whack a reply below and let me know and I'll try crunch the numbers (I only keep team stats, not player stats, but I'm collecting quite a few at the moment).
Happy off-season! Bring on the cricket.
Replies
Fantastic blog Captain. Can't wait to read the rest.
Great info. DA's stats don't look too shabby either.
Penalty counts and handling errors would be most interesting Bup.
Fantastic blog mate, very interesting stats and graph, i love a good graph, agree with your sentiments too, cheers
What this analysis does highlight - and you do not mention it in your blog - is Daniel Anderson's knifing in the back is where the rot first stated.
Anderson was streets ahead of all the others and we sacked him.
PLUS the difference between Kearney and Arthur is NOT all that great.
Yes, Brad has been a little more "consistent" (than Kearney and Stuart) and we have not experienced as many massive scoreline blowouts but in the overall wash up we have stood still.
And if you are standing still you are actually going backwards because we have recruited what is supposedly better talent along the way.
I won't argue about the damage Kearney and Stuart did but the real damage was done by knifing Anderson in the first place.
Brad Arthur has unfortunately been given a contract extension - I believe this should NOT have occurred until at least mid season *NEXT YEAR* sigh.
Fair enough to upgrade his remuneration, but to extend so early is ridiculous .
A bit harsh to say we have stood still since Arthur has taken over. I agree the knifing of Anderson was premature, but the team was disappointing in 2010 after the glory run of 09.
We went backward with Kearney, but Stuart took us to the lowest of lows. Arthur managed to turn the team around last year and he made some good progress.
It would have been nice to continue the trend this year, but it is well documented the reasons that hasn't happened.