The right boot of Mitchell Moses propelled the Eels into the finals as they emerged as the most effective attacking-range kicking team in 2019.
An analysis by NRL.com Stats of outcomes from attacking kicks has revealed the Eels were streets ahead of their nearest rival, and far more effective with close range kicks than even the likes of Melbourne and the Roosters.
The Eels were middling in a few defensive stats in particular but papered over the cracks by lapping all comers in an algorithm designed by NRL.com Stats to assess outcomes from attacking kicks.
The formula looks at a team's ability to get a positive result from any kick in attacking territory with each kick given a positive or negative weighting based on the outcome, which is explained in full detail below.
Parramatta's final attacking kick plus/minus score for the season was +210 from 280 total kicks, well ahead of Penrith (+184) Cronulla and Wests Tigers (both +172).
The season's four best teams – Roosters (+151), Raiders (+119), Rabbitohs (+106) and Storm (+103) – were all in the top eight for this metric, indicating they were effective with attacking kicks but less reliant on it for point-scoring.
Manly made the finals despite finishing 11th best for attacking kick effectiveness while Brisbane finished eighth despite being the worst in the NRL in this area and the only team to finish with a negative score, coming in at -2 for the season from their 280 attacking kicks.
Interestingly, the three Queensland clubs figured in the bottom three for this metric with the Titans (+12) and Cowboys (+15) also struggling to get results from attacking kicks, just trailing Canterbury (+18).
The best net total for an individual player in this metric was Eels halfback Mitch Moses, with a whopping +148 from a huge 186 attacking kicks. Moses remarkably did not send one kick dead in goal all season, with 14 dropouts forced. His NRL-high 24 try assists included 18 from kicks.
In second place was now ex-Panther James Maloney, who forced a whopping league-high 31 repeat sets contributing to his net total of +105 from 133 attacking kicks.
On an average per-kick basis the best return was Storm playmaker Jahrome Hughes, with +2.38 from 21 kicks with eight drop-outs forced, five kicks regained and four try assists from kicks.
Next best was Moses' young halves partner Dylan Brown, a significant contributor to Parramatta's dominance in this area, with +1.83 per kick from 23 kicks including three try assists and seven forced dropouts.
Moses' average per kick was a healthy +0.80 from a much larger sample size while Clint Gutherson (+0.82 from 22 kicks) also chipped in.
While Broncos playmaker Anthony Milford figured prominently for dropouts forced (18), a league-high 13 kicks dead brought the kick differential back significantly and contributed to Brisbane's woes.
There were seven more kicks dead from six other Broncos, while maligned skipper Darius Boyd showed how it's done with five drop-outs forced and no kicks dead.
Their 21 kicks dead was a league equal-high with the Dragons and Storm, though the Storm got enough good results otherwise to stay in the top half of the competition for attacking kick effectiveness.
Methodology
Every attacking kick through the regular season is given a score weighting, with the ultimate outcome of a try assist judged +10 and the next best result – a fresh set of six via a dropout or opposition error – given +3.
Possession otherwise retained is +2 and a teammate error from the kick is +1, which ruled as a positive kick because the team had a chance to score or regain the ball.
The worst result – an opposition restart at the 20m line – is weighted -5. All other outcomes leading to the opposition gaining the ball from a tap, tackle or scrum are weighted as -2.
This includes the ball going into touch, going into touch on the full and being cleaned up by the opposition.
In the rare instance, a kick is charged down then retained by the attacking team it is given a zero weighting because though the result is positive the kick failed in its intent.
Replies
I think we are successful with kicks as we have big strong outside backs. That means the defence only chance to stop them is to ensure that they are up off the line quickly. That opens the space behind the line for the kick and it appears we converted plenty of those chances into trys.
Hopefully for 2020 opposition teams may look at this stat and hesitate to rush up so quickly wary of the kick which should allow more tries to be scored running the ball.
I don't care how the tries are scored as long as we can score them. The stat that made big difference I think from 2018 to 2019 was lack of 20m restarts. In 2018 Parra forced plenty of drop outs but were also guilty of giving away plenty of 20m taps which added to our defensive workloads.
Yeah, line drop outs are IMO a little overrated, in many ways I would rather the ball pull up just in the field of play, especially in the corner and then attack with our defence.
Stats wise I think it's safe to say if you force a 3rd line drop out you're most likely to score. The opposition are flat on their feet. Moses would mostly put his kicks just infield searching for Taka and Fergo. Both used their height to their advantage. Doing it on Sivo and Jenko's side wasnt as effective.
Let me rephrase.
If I have to choose between kicking it shorter and risk the opposition getting the ball into play versus kicking it deeper and risking it go dead and giving the opposition a 7 tackle restart I'll take the former everyday.
Obviously you want to get into the in ball for a restart if you can, but not at the risk of sending it dead. For me, 7 tackle restarts are as big a momentum turner as 40/20's & stripping the ball.
I agree. Mitch though had his wits and never kicked the ball dead all season.
Both Mitch and Dylan have golden boots. We never had a problem all season scoring points. Our problems were defensive. We lack grind and mongrel as a team epecially against strong clubs. This may had something to do with us being one of the youngest teams in the comp. The older a player gets, the better calls he makes based on experience.