Arthur Meets The Coaching Gods, In Struggle City


Brad Arthur's Waterloo is now. 2019. And he has a lot to straighten out, including a tie.

Many Eels fans are of the opinion, the "bush coach", is "clue-less" and should be sacked. Many would "boo Santa Claus" too.

Many Eels fans say a semi-final appearance would be a mandatory pass mark in the very least for Arthur.

History gives that a 5% chance. Only 6 coaches in the entire 110 year history of first grade rugby league have done that.If you put things in perspective, historically, that also gives a bit of credit to Arthur's rebuild of the Eels from multi-spooners of 2012-2013 and 2015-2016 cap scandal and penalties, to rebound to top 4 in 2017 where he had his best year.

On the flip side, looking at the list of successful coaches' and their winning percentages: it's not surprising who's on top for winning percentages. Coaching Gods like Jack Gibson, Bellamy, Bennett: the ones with the highest footy IQ. Robinson and even young Siebold's records to date aee also in the rarified air of the coaching Gods.
The bottom line is - winning is what counts. And Arthur's winning percentage, in over 5 years at the struggling Eels, has now dropped to 45.3%.

 That's now struggle city.

And plenty of coaches have been there: in the sewers of strugggle city. All of the bottom eight coaches of 2018 have. Let's start with a countdown of the lowest of all bottom dwellers and work our way up the food chain.

No.10. Ricky Stuart. The lowest of lowest award goes to "Rocky" with a 20.8% winning record with the Eels in 2013. And the 2013 spoon. He tried to re-build by a mass clean-out. It didn't end well for him.

No.9. Nathan Brown's 21% with Newcastle, over 3 years, from 2016-present. And 2 spoons. After 3 years of re-building 2019 is considered by many, as the break-out year of the Knights when they should reach the finals.

No.8. Stephen Kearney's 23.8% with the Eels, 2011−2012. And the 2012 spoon.

No.7. Craig Bellamy's 25% with the Storm, between 2006-2015, when he was without two of his three big three: Cronk, Slater, Smith. And there's also NSW during 2008–10, where he lives at 22%.

Brad Arthur's 25%, in 2018, his worst, ties with one of Bellamy's worst performances.

 

No.6. Garth Brennan's 33% with the Titans, in 2018. Dean Pay also scored 33% with the Bulldogs, over 2 years. 2017- present.

The successful Paul Green also scored 33%, his worst, with the Cowboys, during 2018.

No.5. Trent Barrett's 40% with Manly, 2016–18

 No.4. Ivan Cleary's 42% with the Wests Tigers, 2017-18.

No.3. Jack Gibson's 43% with the Sharks, 1985-1987, over 3 years.

Even the Gods struggle.

No. 2. Wayne Bennett's 45% with Newcastle, 2012−2014 over 3 years.

Brad Arthur's 45% with the Eels during his entire 5 years and a bit for the Eels, ties with the "super-coach".

No.1. Brad Arthur scored 51% with the struggling Eels, for 4 years, during 2014-17. Arthur's 2017 season, his best with the Eels, was at a very Godly 66.7%.

So what are we to make of all this?

For one, perhaps Brad Arthur isn't as diabolical as many have confidently concluded.

Two, coaches, even the Gods of coaching, such as Gibson, Bennett, and Bellamy struggle when coaching weak, struggling teams.

Three, further to that, if any coach is almost surely going to struggle anywhere it's going to be at the Eels.

To add weight to that, the Eels top the list, of winning the most wooden spoons (with most recent spoons in brackets) from all existing clubs and second from all 34 first grade clubs to have ever played.

It also begs some serious questions. Are the Eels perennial coach-killers and team-killers? Is there a problem in our culture, and are we too soft-bellied?

And if so, traditionally dysfunctional political dramas and inability to attract TPA's are probable contributors, but what else? What's the solution: a better head-coach?

History suggests a better coach doesn't always translate to better results. 

Even if Arthur goes reasonably well 2019, and beats the huge odds against him, he is still highly unlikely to be here in 2020.

We have a struggling team, a confidence-scarred group, used to losing in a club used to losing, with some aging stars past their best, mixed with promising but inexperienced unproven, young group.

It's almost the start of a new re-building cycle post 2017 when we were at our best. History is heavily against Arthur in such scenarios. 5% odds.

Coaches of teams re-building from wooden spoons like Newcastle or us, are around a 20% winning ratio (e.g. Brown and Stuart). The best was Flannagan's at 53% when 2015 Cronulla recovered from a spoon in 2014 to get to the semi-finals in 2015. But what a team he had then: a younger Gallen and Luke Lewus, Fifita, Wade Graham, Holmes, inforn firing Barba and Jack Bird. There's 5 Origin players there. The Eels of 2019 have zero.

Unless Arthur is able top do better than the coaching Gods or works something miracuous and unheard of in history - best case the team still sits outside the 8, worst case is another spoon. I think we're going to sit somewhere in between.

History suggests recruitment and retention, maintaining of player talent are possibly most important foundations for a successful coach. History suggests we struggle here a lot.

It's my view Arthur is no worse than most other NRL coaches. But not a great one. Not yet, at least. He is respected by the players and his peers, passionate, a good people person, loyal to his players, cares about them and the club. That why the players care about him too. 2017 showed some of his promise.

Arthur needs to be a better teacher and improve his footy IQ, or get better support - to get the best out of the talent he has at his disposal, that the Gods can.

Jack Gibson, Bellamy, Bennett and even Siebold share a common denominator: they constantly learn, study, evolve and possess innovative ideas, learning from their mistakes. Mistakes are critical. Arthur also has made mistakes, and recruitment errors. He needs to learn from them too.  I'm not sure Arthur has adressed all the footy IQ factors for 2019, nor has highly innovative coaching support.

Arthur's bloodied commitment to us through our most troubled times in history was inspiring and something I'll never forget. And the reason behind this very lengthy historical blog. He deserves better.

If Arthur sticks this storm out, he will probably end up the winner out of the exchange - especially, if he goes to a stronger club with better support and less political drama. He could probably, say, get better results out of Canberra than Ricky has. He'll probably end up there or with the Dogs or Manly, is my bet. He should do better too.

Who's next?

Now, for all who want Arthur sacked or see him gone in 2020 or sooner: Who should replace him and why? Why do you think the new coach will succeed and or even want to take the helm of a traditionally struggling team, a coach-killer, given our political dysfunctionality, given choices? Maybe an assistant coach, looking for a stepping stone?

Though, Arthur almost certainly will be gone by 2020 or sooner, don't get ready to put on your shades just yet. History has a way of biting back and making fools out of us all. Even the Gods are made fools of - given a chance.

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      • Fatty can be good value most of the time HOE - he does have his lapses but once Poppa gives him some sage advice he comes back to reality.

        Hi Fatty - hehe.

        Your comaparison with Holbrook is excellent my man - I mean EX-CELL-ENT!

        Body language, enthusiasm, must-win creative footy etc.

        Compared to dour, unresponsive (has anyone ever seen Brad Arthur smile?), "Oh yes, its my fault as coach" does not cut it in many areas - that equates to a loser's limp imo.

        You and Tad touched on the "justified" anger aspect way back - BUT - we have heard about the "savage spray" he has given the team from time to time with little to no improvewment. Why do the players not respond?

        We hear about Bellyache, Bennet, Hasler etc giving their teams a spray and they produce resuts, or at least improvement in perfomrance, why doesn't this happen with Brad Arthur?

        This has been a great discussion and I am sure we will still be here talking the same stuff in 8 weeks time, again I ask why?

        paul taylor just posted one of his rare great comments in another blog - last weeks trial was the same game plan we have had since Kearney was a god at the Eels - FFS, didn't we recently upgrade our Footbal Manager, assistant coaching staff et al.

        My guts churn even more hearing NOTHING (apparently) HAS CHANGED.

        I am a winner, always have been, always will be - my Psychiatrist also says I must be some sort of demented psychotic masochist to have followed the Eels for almost 90% of my life.

        Image result for insanity meme

        Just type YES!

        • Hi Sir Col ... another year...and thanks HOE. 

          IMO Flanagan would have been the shortest priced favourite to take over if he wasn’t suspended but then if he wasn’t suspended he would have stayed with the sharks so it’s probably moot. 

          Holbrook CAN coach and has some great runs on the board with the Eels lower grades and in the UK and I believe was in charge with the junior kangaroos. 

          Kudos for the Eels board I suppose for being loyal to BA and if his appointment isn’t renewed he can’t complain. 

          In a perfect world, we win the premiership and BA is appointed for another 3 years ! but the board would be remiss to not have done some amount of pre planning for next year. 

          Ive been out to Red Hill and Seibold has certainly turned the Broncos upside down. Little things like under Benny everyone just turned up and Bennett just decided what training they would do on the run. He has an uncanny ability to spot what was needed and they would do it.  Under Seibold they have been ripped into the 21st century- everyone is given a plan in advance which tells them what they are doing and where they have to be at any given time. Trainers are told - be at the southern end of the ground at 7.05am for water refreshment. Everything is run with military precision. Their mantra is that their training is done at 160% above game speed so when they do play- it’s like a walk in the park. 

          They have such a good roster - they will go well this year. 

          Which brings me back to the Eels - perhaps we just need a new direction? Yes we don’t have the Broncos roster and we certainly don’t have their DNA but maybe we just NEED to change? 

          Personally, I didn’t care about the trial defeat or the opposition so much as how WE played. It was exactly the same shapes, the same block plays, the same let’s run one out and kick high to hope for a mistake. This just won’t work anymore - not in the NRL !  

          Our boys will try hard but damn ! We need someone to drag us into the 21st century!!!

          • Can't argue with any of that Fatty.

            • Yep, well said Fatty. I agree, along with TAD and Col. Barring something miraculous, it's time for change for everyone involved: The club, Athur, players, maybe the fans as well.

              Hard to believe Col and I agree on something but we did mention seemingly impossible possibilites, hehe...

              Personally, I would have loved to have Siebold; and would be my gamble if I had a choice. But there's more chance of Col and Frankie thanking Arthur for his services, than a Siebold ever coming to our club. But you never know.

              Lets hope whoever's next - Holbrook or someone else -  can tough it out as well, as Arthur had, when the going got tough. And it will.

              My only question with Holbrook is how tough his very cheery creative persona and jovial body language will translate into an NRL 1st grade side, that has struggled to be tough; and been soft bellied for too long. It's not a laughing matter. But I suppose the creative upside counters the risk. 

              Very intriguing times ahead. 

        • LOL Col: "YES" 

          As a uncompromising winner, in the Vince Lombardi mould - "winning isn't everything, it's the only thing" - how do you justify being an Eels supporter: Doing the same thing over and over again watching Athur coached teams and expecting identical results? 

          I might have to join your Hatha yoga classes.

           

  • I think if we can decode the reason for wooden spoon last year , should give insight on BA.  All the percentages mentioned here means nothing if club like Broncos, Rosters and Storm maintains its performance year after year.

    I do believe that we as a fan don't push for betterment of the club. We have an inherent issue with our club.  May be thats why all big guns left our club after 2001 debacle. Players l one Ryan, Buetnar, later Hodge, Marsh left, not to forget Lyon. What happened then? I am guessing rot started at that time.  Add to that we have incompetent accountant who can't fudge stuff like Rosters and Broncos. 

    By the way the percentage for bellamy is not entirely true. This is first time storm is playing without Cronk. And still  they made to final.

    About BA he

    A. He is soft. He fails to use carrot and stick for players. Example is Jennings...both the brothers should be playing park  football. Yet, they are given chance every week.

    B. Terrible recruitment. We seem to pick has beens.

    C. He is getting away with "he did well during our salary cap times". What does it mean?

    D. If he cannot get the 2017 team to GF in 2018, he is a failure. 

    • This reply was deleted.
      • Hey mate some of the stuff you mentioned in your reply is good one. However I still have some reservation on certain points 

        a. I was talking about Michael J. His form hit rock bottom in 2018. In spite of that I noticed BA did not take any action. If he would have taken, we would have seen improvment. This goes for number of players. So if you not exposing these incompetent players to the consequence, why would they bother to play better. That is what I meant BA being soft. It was clear from his post match interview that i. he has no clue why form slumped ii. No plan B

        b. Forget Semi, he is not with us and we should have moved on . Tell me which player you saw was outstanding. When Cronk was aavailable, why didnt we lure him. Look at him , how he single handedly won GF for Roosters. (may single handedly is bit rich). Look Mau, or Alavro. Other than Nathan Brown, our whole roster is terrible. Why didnt we lure DCE to our club. Our young players are not promising. Seriously though, i havent seen anyone stand out. If you compare Timmy Smith, that guy was destined to become a future Sterlo. Unfortunately the person life destroyed him. We have a habbit to pick some onbscure guys and media hype them and we end up paying through our teeth a la Corey.

        c. You mean to say if we have anyone other than BA during the salary cap issue, that person would have left our club? He took a wrong gamble by letting Nathan Peats walk away and we ended up loosing the match. What the heck ? Just for argunement sake if BA would have left us during the salary cap, what worst would have happened to us. We were already got the spoon. Also, if you see all other club who had salary cap breached, their coach remained with their club, hell next year they were fighting for top 4 spot. Examples, Dogs, Melbourne ( after loosing Inglis). So please spare me the thought that without BA we would have ceased to be a club during the salary cap issue. In fact BA knew its EELS or no one one.

         

        D "2018 was a failure, Grand final had nothing to do with it. That team last year, if it played to its ability it may have made top 10." From your reply, what I gathered that winning top 4 position in 2017 was fluke. Becuase BA could not emulate that same spirit, passion, game plan/strategy. In other words he is clue less. That is more scary.  

         

        Saying that our club has been run badly, actually covers lot of issues with coach, players we have recruited. You have assumtion is correct , I havent read consitution. My read in constitution reflecst on the football field. We may have a top class best constituion and management but if we cannot win trophys, those things are just useless. 

        I have been Parra supporters from 1999 and I am sure there are members who have been with our club 40 /50 years. May be they are immuned to our abject failture as a club that they dont even care whether I club wins or not. They take the venue as family picnic. 

        Look we may not win GF every year but we have member base, good statudium to be a powerhouse like Storm, Roosters, or Bronocs. 

        The problem is our gene. We do not have winning gene. Our board members are uselss and our some of our fan believes in mediocre. I still cant get it how a coach who cannot keep conistency is in our club. 

        What will bring this year whcih he couldn;t in previous years. I prefer to be pessimistic and feel less sad than being optimistic and feel hollow at the end of the season.....

         

        • Carpedium, Good input mate. Interesting you mentioned a weaknesses in our "gene". That suggests an larger big-picture issue in our club.

          It's something I have had a gut feel, for a long time. The problem with gut feels is they often are at odds with logic, reasonable premises, and facts.

          Can a club have a gene? With turnover of players, coaches, CEOs, boards and heads, and the game and its rules evolving, how could it? Logic would suggest it's mildly absurd. But then again in business companies, have a brand, even when it re-cycles employees and employers.

          My gut feel is based on following the Eels since 1980, when they were in the middle of their one and only golden decade from 1976-86, punctuated by consecutive finals appearances, 4 premierships and minor premierships.

          In this golden era, in the late 70s, 80s and a few odd good years like 2001 and 2009 our success was largely founded on extreme attacking "flair" and brilliance.

          We were the "electric" Eels, at our best.

          In contrast Storm have a gritty toughness to their defensive attitude, even if they don't play pretty, they can struggle the life out of the opposition. Boa Constrictor style. With a massive power lightening bolted surge to top it off.

          Like their finely honed championship wrestling at the rucks to assert control over the speed of the game and restrict space and opportunities for the opposition. And then they have had the core class to turn on the pretty once they achieve dominance.

          The Eels 2016 and 2017 were a little bit different in that there was a more dour defensive attitude and less brilliance. You could say we won "tougher" than we have in the past. Under Arthur. His roots in the Storm system were partly evident here. Less electric and more grit. But I agree he needed to be even tougher. Loyalty to our club and older players is admirable, but it hasn't helped Arthur.

          If we go the Holbrook route, a lot of signs suggest a return to a our more electric and creative style of play. He's coached Parra juniors. His first year at St Helens stint saw a runaway 700 points scored. And as a former half he admired Andrew Johns above all, as a creative genius to do whatever it takes to win.

          Still, I think we need to have a tough core group of players to succeed and we don't have them yet. Two old tough heads in Ray Price and Mick Cronin were at the start of our golden era in the 70s. Once they left in 1986 after our last grand final victory we never made the finals again for the next 3 years despite having electric greats in Sterling, Ella Kenny and Grothe playing on. Monie too looked clueless after 1986. Being electric won't be enough.

           

           

  • This reply was deleted.
    • TAD, well written and interesting video. The young lad appears born to be a conductor or musician for sure. It makes me think of the old nature versus nurture argument and doing the best with your talents; getting better continuously.

  • B.A.. should have been replaced after the first 6 rounds of the 2018 competition, He had lost the confidence of the players with his coaching methods, which showed in their abysmal effort in the Manly game 54=0  I also blame the players for their lack of resolve and pride in themselves. They had the ability, which was shown in the return game with Manly, the second game against the Broncos and the return game against ST George. Their one dimensial game plan, was not a plan, but a coaching disaster. Adding the recruitment failures to his coaching results, I find it hard to understand why we don't start this season with a new coach. In future, please recruit players with big hearts and a football brain.

     

     

This reply was deleted.

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