Which players in the NRL do you see as being a value investment that you would like to see Parramatta sign?
Often when we discuss player signings, we talk about a player's rumoured market price and their current form. Is that how we should be approaching player recruitment?
Or are we simply gambling and hoping we strike gold?
The way I'm running this little experiment, is to see if we can tie the investment frameworks of renowned investors Warren Buffett and Ben Graham into the NRL player market.
The approach is simple: Great players at a fair price.
That doesn't mean you can't target marquee players, or you're trying to sign Cleary on $500K/year.
It means you're identifying players who have a strong foundation to their game, with a track record that you can quantify.
If you bought them now, for a 4 year contract, would you be happy to have them at the end of that contract, or would you theoretically be able to sell them at a profit?
I had this discussion yesterday regarding Matt Burton.
The market probably rates him at $1m/year, but is that his underlying value to a club? What about his performances at Canterbury make him a million dollar player?
Or would he present an overvalued asset? Would you draw the line at $700k/year as his track record indicates that's where he tops out?
Could you compare him to Dylan Brown in that we saw $1.4m/year as beyond his actual value and that his track record indicated that remaining at Parramatta would represent a poor investment?
Criteria:
- Player of your choosing at any level
- What the market rate is
- What you would pay and why
- Which players you think would be overvalued/undervalued
- How would this align with our need to recruit outside backs?
Replies
Excellent stuff, Super.
I'd have a Hybrid, diversified system adapting to market conditions. Not purely Buffet, Turtle trading, or blue chip investment.
It's more the type of player that interests me and their role. Speed. Power. Skill. IQ. Market is overheated so overs for good players is a given. These are just some examples of players that come to mind (could add a lot more) that are generally available now or Nov 1st guys not signed beyond 2027.
HIT LIST: Three categories to complement our juniors.
CONFIDENCE MARQUEE BUYS
Throwing 750K-$1.3m long-term contracts and they'd attract solid TPAs. These guys can add confidence to the group and have all played at the highest level or are budding superstars. I'd be looking at 1-3.
NEXT TEIR - MOMENTUM MOVERS
450-700K range
UPSIDE VALUE
350-500K
HoE
Any 2 those 3 guys in our back 5 next year are game changing for us.
I think when your going for talent because the pool isn't that deep for what we are after we need to look definitely at the younger type with an athletic profile.We need to have a risk and take someone who hasn't necessarily cracked it but is on the periphery.
A guy I'm liking from what I've seen is Tevita Naufahu from the Dolphins 20 yrs old is signed for 27 but he's one I'd be looking at going after he's got huge potential.
I mean I mentioned Jojo Fifita about 2-3 years back and he's finally cracked an SoO squad.
I think we have to take a crack at these up n comers the guys that have cracked it already will cost to much and are just a bit out of our reach a guy like Naufahu isn't.
NoS if we landed a Naufahu White that's a unicorn type signing he'd cost us a mill per and to be honest I know you don't put that type of money in a prop but But I'd do it here purely because that's what it costs to get a player like that a way from the Roosters.It probably won't happen but I'd definitely have an offer on the table for a player like that.He's going to be the Kiwis lead Dawg after Tapines and JFH pass the mantle.
Coryn, Good shout. I like Tevita Naufahu too. I read somewhere the Dolphins are keen on extending him past 2027 but they won't be able to keep all of them.
Naufahu White would be an amazing signing as NOS said. Better than Keaon. But Roosters have him tied up to 2029 apparantly. They won't let him go. He's their future.
HOE, Coryn,
X3 on your backline there gents, that would be game changing. I really do hope we sign Jenkins at least. Also like the Demitric Vaimauga call, HOE. With the Warriors stacked, who knows.
I hear you on White, which is why i'd be striking now and............ I'd offer them Mitch Moses to ensure the deal, as we wrap up Katoa as our future 7.
The Roosters are arguarbly in a Premiership window,, so adding Mitch could give them a genuine shot over the Panthers etc. Plus, Mitch gets to compete for a Premiership with his best mate Tedesco & in his last few years, he's earned that.
Thats crazy I hear you say, BUT, hear me out, we get a lengthy jump on these teams competing now as we strategically target 2029/2030/2031 as our Premiership window with Katoa, Iongi, TDS / Smith, and a heap of juniors in the pack who will be 50-100 games in.
Accept where we are as a club, accept where we are with Mitch Moses' 1.2m+ salary, and use this position as our advantage against oppositions (time).
Probably a good thing Im not working in R&R.
NOS, Although I feel it's highly unlikely, I like the lateral thinking. Fascinating. Highly creative.
A two-big-fish-for-one deal.
Am I understanding this correctly: you're spitballing a Whyte swap for Moses coupled with Katoa accepting a huge offer?
Hypothetically, let's say we offered Katao around $1.35m for 8-10 years or whatever. Plus whatever TPAs he'd attract. He'd be the highest taxed earner in the game. More than Mr Brown even.
Essentially, this deal might not cost us anything on our current 2026 cap. We might even save money, taking into account:
There are lot of balls in the air. Walker. The Katao deal. Does Whyte accept? And if it fails, we almost derail the Ryles Era given Moses' value as the club on-field General. No.1 Man. It could be a win-win too. High risk, high reward.
I hadn’t got that far, HOE. But that’s why I’m hiring you as the numbers man, and I’ll just take the credit when it goes through.
We'll need an audit then, NOS, lol.
My faux tissue-paper guesstimates, done in my head, reckons losing Moses ($1.25m), Matto (650-700K) and a trimmed Junior (save 300-400K) wouldn't cover Whyte (800K), Katoa ($1.35m) and McLean (700K).
We'd be short 600K or so.
There is another option.
#SackMeNow
Except, we lost Dylan Brown (950k/1m) & Lomax (650k/700k) and replaced them two players who should be on 600k combined? There should be 1m in our bank just there, and going off what Ryles has mentioned, money doesn't seem to be the issue?
Haha I won't sack you, but consider this the beginning of your 'performance management' out of the company.
Absolutely, NOS.
There could be other areas in the cap that could offset the red hole. But I'm just talking about the specifics of the deal. The maths don't add up. Definitely sackable. On thin ice.
A dear friend and late architect I worked with for a decade before he passed used to do some work for the late Kerry Packer. He chuckled when he told me this story of how Packer hired his accountants. He'd ask them a simple question: How much is 1+1?
If they answered 2, they never get the job.
Let's get some C4 for our cap.
P.S. I'll probably stick to working for myself, to save you the stress and time lol.
P.S.S. I thought $1m was enough to keep Dylan. Damn. Very foxxy goose step and triple turn. He fooled me. He might make a seven yet worth $1.5m.
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