Which players in the NRL do you see as being a value investment that you would like to see Parramatta sign?
Often when we discuss player signings, we talk about a player's rumoured market price and their current form. Is that how we should be approaching player recruitment?
Or are we simply gambling and hoping we strike gold?
The way I'm running this little experiment, is to see if we can tie the investment frameworks of renowned investors Warren Buffett and Ben Graham into the NRL player market.
The approach is simple: Great players at a fair price.
That doesn't mean you can't target marquee players, or you're trying to sign Cleary on $500K/year.
It means you're identifying players who have a strong foundation to their game, with a track record that you can quantify.
If you bought them now, for a 4 year contract, would you be happy to have them at the end of that contract, or would you theoretically be able to sell them at a profit?
I had this discussion yesterday regarding Matt Burton.
The market probably rates him at $1m/year, but is that his underlying value to a club? What about his performances at Canterbury make him a million dollar player?
Or would he present an overvalued asset? Would you draw the line at $700k/year as his track record indicates that's where he tops out?
Could you compare him to Dylan Brown in that we saw $1.4m/year as beyond his actual value and that his track record indicated that remaining at Parramatta would represent a poor investment?
Criteria:
- Player of your choosing at any level
- What the market rate is
- What you would pay and why
- Which players you think would be overvalued/undervalued
- How would this align with our need to recruit outside backs?
Replies
Excellent stuff, Super.
I'd have a Hybrid, diversified system adapting to market conditions. Not purely Buffet, Turtle trading, or blue chip investment. Three categories to complement our juniors.
It's more the type of player that interests me and their role. Speed. Power. Skill. IQ. Market is overheated so overs for good players is a given. These are just some examples of players that come to mind that are generally available now or Nov 1st guys not signed beyond 2027. But you can't take this list too literal. It's whacked up fairly quickly.
Hit List
1. Confidence Marquees (a combination 2-3 say)
Throwing 750K-$1.3m long-term contracts and they'd attract solid TPAs. These guys can add confidence to the group and have all played at the highest level or are budding superstars.
Middle IQ
Long-term general IQ
2. Next-Tier down Momentum Movers
450-700K range
3. Upside Value
350-500K
The more I think about this, the more I'll start to edit this.
HoE
Any 2 those 3 guys in our back 5 next year are game changing for us.
I think when your going for talent because the pool isn't that deep for what we are after we need to look definitely at the younger type with an athletic profile.We need to have a risk and take someone who hasn't necessarily cracked it but is on the periphery.
A guy I'm liking from what I've seen is Tevita Naufahu from the Dolphins 20 yrs old is signed for 27 but he's one I'd be looking at going after he's got huge potential.
I mean I mentioned Jojo Fifita about 2-3 years back and he's finally cracked an SoO squad.
I think we have to take a crack at these up n comers the guys that have cracked it already will cost to much and are just a bit out of our reach a guy like Naufahu isn't.
NoS if we landed a Naufahu White that's a unicorn type signing he'd cost us a mill per and to be honest I know you don't put that type of money in a prop but But I'd do it here purely because that's what it costs to get a player like that a way from the Roosters.It probably won't happen but I'd definitely have an offer on the table for a player like that.He's going to be the Kiwis lead Dawg after Tapines and JFH pass the mantle.
Coryn, Good shout. I like Tevita Naufahu too. I read somewhere the Dolphins are keen on extending him past 2027 but they won't be able to keep all of them.
Naufahu White would be an amazing signing as NOS said. Better than Keaon. But Roosters have him tied up to 2029 apparantly. They won't let him go. He's their future.
HOE, Coryn,
X3 on your backline there gents, that would be game changing. I really do hope we sign Jenkins at least. Also like the Demitric Vaimauga call, HOE. With the Warriors stacked, who knows.
I hear you on White, which is why i'd be striking now and............ I'd offer them Mitch Moses to ensure the deal, as we wrap up Katoa as our future 7.
The Roosters are arguarbly in a Premiership window,, so adding Mitch could give them a genuine shot over the Panthers etc. Plus, Mitch gets to compete for a Premiership with his best mate Tedesco & in his last few years, he's earned that.
Thats crazy I hear you say, BUT, hear me out, we get a lengthy jump on these teams competing now as we strategically target 2029/2030/2031 as our Premiership window with Katoa, Iongi, TDS / Smith, and a heap of juniors in the pack who will be 50-100 games in.
Accept where we are as a club, accept where we are with Mitch Moses' 1.2m+ salary, and use this position as our advantage against oppositions (time).
Probably a good thing Im not working in R&R.
NOS, Although I feel it's highly unlikely, I like the lateral thinking. Fascinating. Highly creative.
A two-big-fish-for-one deal.
Am I understanding this correctly: you're spitballing a Whyte swap for Moses coupled with Katoa accepting a huge offer?
Hypothetically, let's say we offered Katao around $1.35m for 8-10 years or whatever. Plus whatever TPAs he'd attract. He'd be the highest taxed earner in the game. More than Mr Brown even.
Essentially, this deal might not cost us anything on our current 2026 cap. We might even save money, taking into account:
There are lot of balls in the air. Walker. The Katao deal. Does Whyte accept? And if it fails, we almost derail the Ryles Era given Moses' value as the club on-field General. No.1 Man. It could be a win-win too. High risk, high reward.
NOS, that's a fascinating train of thought. Many here will call you crazy, but I like the idea.
Realistically we are not competing next year, so the earliest window for us is 2028 anyway, and Moses is on the downhill slope now, so maybe it is time to move on.
To defer for one more year with the players and plan you've put there, I think it's a great idea. In fact it's what I'd hope our big wigs are considering every day when they sit down at their desk. Future planning is probably more important than next years roster in many ways.
I agree the younger players currently on board are a must to keep
NEXT GEN Post Moses ERA
1. Iongi
2. Jesse McLean - From the Panthers
3.Casey McLean - Would be idal Centre to build team around
4. Josh Bostock
5.Izak Tago - used in the forward at Panthers
6.Blaze Talagi - Bring him back home to the eels
7. Katoa
8. T. Brown
9. R Smith
10. R. Talagi
11. J. Samrani
12. Sam Hughes - X eel
13.TDS - Ball playing lock
Most of these are dreams:
High range 800k+
Cleary, herbie, galvin, strange
Mid 350k-800k:
Xerri, Averillo, Bostock, Best, Tago, Spencer, carrigan, Erin Clarke
350k and uner:
Jett Cleary, Jesse Maclean , Kris Dixon, Jacob Webster, Schiller
I have no idea how good the players in our pathways are. Only seen limited games.
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